Thursday, July 12, 2007

M&T Bank Nonperforming Loans

0.38%, 0,52%, 0,63%, 0,68%....does anybody see a trend.......I think this is the story of the coming years. See also my opening comments in this post.

Über 0,38% zu 0,68% binnen 12 Monaten. Unschwer hier einen Trend zu erkennen.....Diese Thematik wird uns wohl die nächsten Jahre bei den US Banken verfolgen. Mehr unter dem o.g. Link

Loans classified as nonperforming totaled $296 million, or .68% of total loans at June 30, 2007, compared with $156 million or .38% a year earlier, $224 million or .52% at December 31, 2006 and $273 million or .63% at March 31, 2007.
Contributing to the increase in nonperforming loans from March 31, 2007 was the addition of a $34 million loan to a residential home builder and developer in the Mid-Atlantic region

Disclosure: Short KBW Mortgage Finance Index
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Anonymous Anonymous said...

Ja, aber...nur zwei Tage. It only took two days for Wall St to more than erase Tuesday's loss.


6:46 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

And all it took was a positive retail sales report from WMT -- the dregs of American retail. Even the HBs are up today. Wahnsinn, oder?


6:48 AM  
Blogger jmf said...

Moin Eh,


The animal spirit is just unbelievable.

I think the Alcan debt financed cash offer from Rio has lifted sentiment.

It will be fun to see if Rio takes some money "away" from the other LBO´s that are still in need for financing their deals :-)

I will probably short the Russel 2000 during the next days.

Very high PE, no such firepower with debt fueled buybacks like the "trophy" names, financials are also the largest weighting and i think the overseas exposure is not so large like in the S&P 500 and they have outperformed large cap for almost a decade.....

Heard today that one of my favourites managers Hugh Hendry/Eclectica has the same idea. But he is hedging his Russell short with a S&P 500 long.

But this would be too much for me to swallow :-)

7:01 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

I will probably short the Russel 2000 during the next days.

I feel the same temptation. But I've learned -- the hard way (by losing money) -- not to react and trade out frustration over what I perceive as the market's irrational behavior. For example: today's approximately 150 point rise (early session) in $INDU, which is completely contrary to my moderate bearishness at the moment. Since I am convinced I am right, it is tempting to short here. But I would be doing that more out of momentary frustration than anything else, I think.

Deswegen warte ich.

I would be reluctant to short a broad index now in the face of today's bullish action, which makes me uneasy. Because I have seen how this bull market has powered through every previous weak spot, despite a bearish news flow around housing and subprime. Which seems to be effectively countered in the minds of 'investors' (manche sind Idioten, klar) by earnings usw. And idiots or not, you have to react to the tape -- the trend.

I'm more inclined to short sectors or specific stocks.

Some disclosure: I am short XHB, and have been for almost a year, although it has been hard to hold on at times; no plans to cover. I also own SRS and SKF; no plans to sell. I'm looking for similar (what I see as) good opportunities.


8:44 AM  
Blogger jmf said...

Moin Eh,


Couldn´t have said it better!

I feel the same way and it looks we have also made similar mistakes in being way too early ... :-)

To be honest i´m proud that i havn´t shorted one of the broader indices for several month now.....

Especially when you read and blog day in and day out about the unsustainable mania that is driving the markets.

9:21 AM  

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