Friday, February 02, 2007

What Could Bog Down the Bull

it looks like nothing can bring down this market. i can problems as far the eye can see (housing, subprime, margin ersosion, consumer, valuations, insider sales, debt etc. ) on the others hand is liquidity that washes everything away. hard to predict how long this can continue.

es sieht in der tat so aus als wenn die märkte nichts erschüttern kann. probleme gibt es mehr als genug. diesew werden seit geraumer zeit aber mit liquidität überdeckt. wage keine prognose wie lange die party noch weiter gehen kann.

As goes January, so goes the year. This particular phenomenon is what is referred to as the January Barometer. To test this theory, today’s chart presents the average performance of the S&P 500 one, three, six, and 11 months following a January gain (blue bars) and following a January loss (gray bars). The chart illustrates that the S&P 500 has performed much better (on average) during the months following a January gain. In fact, 11 months following a January gain; the S&P 500 was up 89% of the time. FYI - The S&P 500 was up 1.4% in January 2007. thanks to http://www.chartoftheday.com/´


the performance in real estate is related to the reits. but how long ca this last with offers like this one http://immobilienblasen.blogspot.com/2007/01/equity-office-38-billion-takeover-sign.html

to read the story from the nyt click on the headline


größer/bigger http://graphics8.nytimes.com/images/2007/02/01/business/0201-biz-webMARKETSjmp.gif

even the the change in rate expectations hasn´t stopped the runup. selbst eine negative zinseinschätzung hat den markt nicht stopen können.


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2 Comments:

Anonymous Anonymous said...

January Effect:

Note that in the last 6 Years the January effect did not work in the following years:

2001: January +3.5 Year -13.0
2003: January -2.3 Year +26.4
2005: January -2.5 Year +3.0
2007: January +1.4 Year ????

So much for the statistics....

Xaverion

10:36 AM  
Blogger jmf said...

hi xaverion,

i agree.

i think this will be a tough year for equities.(regardless of numerous indicators)

1:30 PM  

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