Friday, January 19, 2007

pimco on housing

the full piece (headline) is mainly about canada. but even there the biggest risk seems to be the us housing market. i think they are way to optimistic in their assumptions.

obwohl der bericht sich in erster linie um kanada dreht (überschrift klicken) scheint auch das der us immomarkt die größte gefahr auszumachen. ich denke das pimco in dem ausblick was den immoimpuls angeht zu optimistsch ist.

PIMCO believes the most likely scenario for the U.S. in 2007 is that growth will remain below trend at about 2%, owing to the influence of the ongoing housing market correction and its expected impact on the labor market and consumer spending........

....That should all add up to a soft landing for U.S. growth and the global economy after the strong growth of the past few years. But we see the risks as skewed to the downside in the U.S., owing to the potential for a sharper-than-expected slowdown in housing that spills over into other sectors of the U.S. economy and slows consumer spending ( While we believe the rest of the world can take in stride a U.S. soft landing, a harder landing in the U.S. creates the potential for greater spillover effects and a harder landing for the global economy


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