Wednesday, January 17, 2007

oils vs oils stocks / ticker sense + jeff saut

with oil and gas prices falling prices falling this cartoon is relevant.... but i doubt(and hope that the times of the hummer will come back.... but you never know....especially in the us......

denke der cartoon paßt bei den fallen enerfiepreisen ganz gut. ich bezweifle und hoffe aber das diese zeiten des hummer für immer erledigt sidn. bei den amis kann man das allerdings nie wissen......

thanks to scott brown from raymond james

The chart below shows the ratio between the price of the S&P 500 Energy stock sector and the price of crude oil per barrel. The ratio is clearly at its highest level in the past three years, meaning that oil stocks have not fallen as fast as the price of the actual commodity during the current decline. So either the stocks are due to play catch up, or the decline of oil is a bit overdone.

here is the take from jeff saut/raymond james

Clearly the new year’s price plunge has shaken the bullish consensus, yet our feeling is that it is going to take an eventual “shake out” below $50 per barrel to turn the crowd negative enough to give us the “footings” for a major bottom

As readers of these reports know, we have been shy of energy, and stuff-stocks in general, after having pared-back on those positions during their 2006 January-to-May parabolic upside blow-off. And even though we sold 25%-to-50% of each one of those positions, the declines from their respective highs for our remaining positions has hurt our overall portfolio performance. Still, perusing the long-term charts in preparation for this report suggests that while commodity markets are having their inevitable cyclical corrections, our belief in the secular bull case for “stuff” continues

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