Sunday, December 10, 2006

What? Me Worry? / comstock!

to add to this "hall of fame" make sure you read comments from cramer, cohen , glassman, kudlow etc......./ mehr zu hall of fame mit müll von den heutigen marktschreiern

i think their advice is as usefull as this traffic sign....same is also true for the permabears etc.
der rat ist ebenso sinnvoll wie dieses verkehrsschild. gilt ebenso für die "dauerbären" etc......

from comstock!

In a series of past comments we have spelled out our reasons why we think that a soft landing, while possible, is improbable in view of current conditions. In espousing this point of view we find ourselves in a distinct minority as a vast majority of investors, strategists and economists confidently believe that a soft landing is close to sure bet, and that the market will continue to advance at a solid pace. However, as the following quotes indicate, investors should be extremely cautious when majority opinion swings too far in one direction. In each of the following instances stocks declined substantially shortly thereafter.

July 3, 1929—“Moody’s says returns are in line with industrial activity.”

October 16, 1929—“Fisher sees stocks permanently high” (New York Times). Irving Fisher was the leading economist of the time.

November 2, 1968—“The Boom That Won’t Stop” (Business Week)

December 1, 1972—In 1973 Bulls Will Control the Market. (Business Week)

January 1, 1973—“Not a Bear Among Them” (Barron’s Annual Roundtable).

January 10, 1977—“Our Year-End Panel Sees a Further rise in Stocks.” (Barron’s)

October 26, 1987—Why Greenspan is Bullish” (Fortune) Edition was issued before the October 19 crash.

September 1999—“Dow 36,000: The Right Price For Stocks” (Atlantic Monthly)

April 27, 2000—“…relax, the over-all market probably won’t tank” (Business Week)

The stock market often undergoes a final solid rally prior to a cyclical peak as investors tell themselves that an economic slowdown is only temporary and will shortly reverse to the upside. They generally stick to this forecast until the signs of recession or hard landing become obvious to all. As former Fed Governor Edward Gramlich recalls the situation in late 2000, “everything was pointing up and, all of a sudden, everything started pointing down.” Of course, to those paying more attention to leading indicators than to coincident and lagging indicators, everything was not pointing up, and they are not pointing up today.

here the call from comstock november 2005. (thanks to "barebear")!!

Labels: , , ,


Post a Comment

Links to this post:

Create a Link

<< Home