Friday, December 08, 2006

us employement data nov.2006

one of the better reports if you look at the headline (especially the small impact of the birth/death model). but as we know from prior releases we have to wait aftre the revisions in 2007 or maybe 2008 to get the right figures. ... the weak point in this release is that all the gains are coming from the servicesector and the gouvermentsector. hard to believe that especially the gain in the retailsector has much room to grow. i think it is a safe bet that there is lots of downside......

U.S. Nov. average workweek steady to 33.9 hours
U.S. Nov. average hourly earnings up 0.2%

U.S. Nov. factory jobs down 15,000; services up 172,000.
U.S. Nov. construction jobs down 29,000

U.S. Nov. retail jobs up 20,000 strongest pace in a year
U.S. Oct., Sept nonfarm payrolls revised up by net 42,000

U.S. Nov. unemployment rate 4.5% vs 4.4% in Oct.
U.S. Nov. nonfarm payrolls up 132,000 vs 112,000 expected

one thing that is a little bid optimistic is that the bls assumes that they have only a 2k difference in the construction assumption from 2005. maybe this can be explained to some part with the desperate builders try to built as fast as they can so they can sell before the full bust is coming. if this is the rational behind this number should fall of a cliff in the next quarters!

2006 Net Birth/Death Adjustment (in thousands)

Natural Resources & Mining






Trade, Transportation, & Utilities




Financial Activities


Professional & Business Services


Education & Health Services


Leisure & Hospitality


Other Services




Nonfarm employment....... 132
Goods-producing -40

Manufacturing........ -15
Service-providing 172
Retail trade 20

Professional and usiness services.. 43
Education and health services........... 41
Leisure and hospitality 31
Government........... 18

Construction employment declined by 29,000 in November, following a loss ofsimilar size in October. The November decline was spread across all componentindustries. Since peaking in February of this year, employment in residentialspecialty trades was down by 109,000. Employment in nonresidential specialtytrades edged down in November, after trending up during the first 10 months ofthe year.

Manufacturing employment continued to trend down (-15,000) in November.Motor vehicles and parts lost 7,000 jobs. Employment continued to fall in two construction-related industries: wood products (-6,000) and furniture and related products (-5,000). Computer and electronic products manufacturing added 5,000 jobs over the month.

update from mish!

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Anonymous Anonymous said...

Great post, JMF, thanks much!

6:40 AM  
Blogger jmf said...


the really great posts will come later in the day or over the weekend from mish and calculated risk.

i´ll link them.

6:42 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

you're looking for a hard landing ???

7:36 AM  
Blogger jmf said...


8:43 AM  
Anonymous alps tour august bicycle said...

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11:15 AM  

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