Friday, November 03, 2006

us arbeitsmarktbericht / us employement data okt.06

die zahlen sind mal wieder ne einen zweiten blick wert. 73.000 von 92.000 also knappe 80% der neu geschaffenen stellen sind erneut nur geschätz worden. ohne nachweis in bester black box manier. umso zweifelhalter als im jahr 05 den oktober nur 57.000 stellen geschätzt worden sidn. meiner meinung nach hat sich seit dem letzten oktober die wirtschaft dramarisch verlangsamt. (evtl. ist das aber auch dem hurrican katrina geschuldet).

you really should look twice to judge the numbers.. 73.000 from the 92.000 (80%!!!) are just a creation of the bls from their black box "birth death model". this gets more curios when you compare the 06 numbers with the 05 oktober number wich assumes that 57.000 were somehow createt. in 05 the economy seems to be way stronger then today. (maybe this is realtet to the katrina).

my opinion to all the revisions from the bls/ meinung zu den ewigen revisionen
http://immobilienblasen.blogspot.com/2006/10/mother-of-all-revisions-mutter-aller.html
http://immobilienblasen.blogspot.com/2006/10/us-arbeitsmarktbericht.html


U.S. Oct. average workweek rises 6 minutes to 33.9
U.S. Oct. retail jobs down 3,000, services up 152,
U.S. Oct. factory jobs down 39,000; construction down 26,
U.S. Oct. average hourly earnings up 0.4%

U.S. Sept. nonfarm payrolls up rev 148,000 vs 51,000
U.S. Oct. unemployment rate lowest since April '01
U.S. Oct. unemployment rate 4.4% vs 4.6% in Sept.
U.S. Oct. nonfarm payrolls up 92,000 vs 123,000 expected

birth/death model http://www.bls.gov/web/cesbd.htm


2006 Net Birth/Death Adjustment (in thousands)
SupersectorJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDec

Natural Resources & Mining

-4001111111

Construction

-551027363929-814108

Manufacturing

-2535-179-2125-4

Trade, Transportation, & Utilities

-361021232620-28231924

Information

-84-174-2-66-64

Financial Activities

-111081956-117319

Professional & Business Services

-592930623328-8221030

Education & Health Services

141223113-4-4161133

Leisure & Hospitality

-533378576813825-28-41

Other Services

-456877-1053-1

Total

-193116135271211175-571212873

more from calculatet risk http://calculatedrisk.blogspot.com/2006/11/october-employment-report.html, http://calculatedrisk.blogspot.com/2006/11/unemployment-rate-vs-recessions.html

more from tim http://themessthatgreenspanmade.blogspot.com/2006/11/friday-lite-hummer-anniversary-edition.html

more from mish http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2006/11/bulls-elephants-jobs.html

bloomberg http://tinyurl.com/yjx7wl

1 Comments:

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