Friday, October 06, 2006

us arbeitsmarktbericht

auch jetzt sind noch deutlich über die hälfte aller (angeblich) neu geschaffenen stellen einfach durch das birth/death model ohne jeglichen nachweis geschätzt worden. wie sich diese schätzung zusammensetzt weiß keiner. ne echte black box.

this year way over half of all new jobs were created came from the assumtion birth/death estimate . these estimates are a total black box.

lest euch meine meinung zum b/d model hier durch/ more on the b/d model here
http://immobilienblasen.blogspot.com/2006/09/us-arbeitsmarktstatistik-enron-lebt.html
http://immobilienblasen.blogspot.com/2006/08/us-arbeitsmarktstatistik-oder-enron.html#links
http://immobilienblasen.blogspot.com/2006/08/nachlese-us-arbeitsmarkt.html

statz rappers to the rescue......
http://immobilienblasen.blogspot.com/2006/10/statz-rappers-explains-some-us_02.html#links

U.S. SEPT. AVERAGE WORKWEEK STEADY TO 33.8 HOURS

U.S. SEPT. AVERAGE HOURLY EARNINGS UP 0.2%

U.S. SEPT. FACTORY JOBS DOWN 19,000; RETAIL DOWN 12,000

U.S. SEPT. CONSTRUCTION JOBS UP 8,000, REAL-ESTATE JOBS FLAT

details von calculated risk
Residential construction employment decreased by 15,100 jobs in September and is down 54.1 thousand, or about 1.6%, from the peak in February. This is the beginning of the loss of several hundred thousand residential construction jobs over the next year or so.
http://photos1.blogger.com/hello/243/2888/640/job20906.jpg


dazu von roubini http://www.rgemonitor.com/blog/roubini/

Construction jobs are still up for two reasons.
First, it takes 9 to 12 months to build a home and the construction job data are still reflecting the high housing starts of early 2006; once those homes are finally built - as late as the next three months - expect employment in the construction sector to sharply and dramatically fall (as much as 40-50K jobs per month). Still, jobs in residential construction already fell 15K in September matched by the increase in non-residential construction.


Second, non-residential construction has done better than the busting residential one and has been a source of job growth. But once the housing sector leg of the employment sharply falls you can expect - as it is already predicted by leading investment houses such as Goldman Sachs - very sharp reductions in housing and housing related emplyoment that will not be compensated by the much smaller non-residential construction sector. Also, while non-residential construction is still perky, the overall economic slowdown will soon lead to a sharp slowdwon in non-residential construction



U.S. SEPT. UNEMPLOYMENT RATE 4.6% VS 4.7% IN AUG.

U.S. AUG. NONFARM PAYROLLS UP REV 188,000 VS 128,000 PREV

U.S. SEPT. NONFARM PAYROLLS UP 51,000 VS 123,000 EXPECTED

Job growth decelerated to its slowest pace since the hurricanes struck the Gulf Coast last year, the Labor Department said Friday. Nonfarm payrolls expanded by 51,000 in September lower than the 123,000 expected by economists surveyed by MarketWatch. But the separate household survey showed more strength. The unemployment rate ticked down to 4.6% in September from 4.7% in the previous month. Economists forecast the unemployment rate to hold steady at 4.7%. In addition, there were 62,000 more jobs created in July and August that previously estimated. Average hourly earnings increased 4cents, or 0.2% to $16.84. Economists had been expecting a 0.3% gain. Earnings are up 4.0% in the past year. The average workweek held steady at 33.8 hours, in line with expectations

http://www.bls.gov/web/cesbd.htm




2006 Net Birth/Death Adjustment (in thousands)
SupersectorJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDec

Natural Resources & Mining

-400111111

Construction

-551027363929-81410

Manufacturing

-2535-179-2125

Trade, Transportation, & Utilities

-361021232620-282319

Information

-84-174-2-66-6

Financial Activities

-111081956-1173

Professional & Business Services

-592930623328-82210

Education & Health Services

141223113-4-41611

Leisure & Hospitality

-533378576813825-28

Other Services

-456877-1053

Total

-193116135271211175-5712128





in 2005 the bls assumed 11.000 workers in construction. this was at the top of the boom. this year they assume 10.000. realistic? at least these workers that are employed will have to deal with a much smaller salary.

at least they take the overall number from last years 50.000 down to 28.000 to take the slowdown into account.

when you take into account that b/d model they have only created 23.000 proven jobs. unter berücksichtigung des b/d models sind nur 23.000 nachgewiesene jobs geschaffen worden.

when you take the revisions seriously the drop off is very severe. looks like falling of a cliff. but maybe in november they revise these numbers also up. havn´t seen a downside revision a long time......

either way you look at it. very weak!

egal wie man es betrachtet. das sind schwache zahlen.

jan-martin

update kevin depew from minyanville http://tinyurl.com/ktav5

Smells like... victory
The headline payroll number came in weaker than expected, with 51,000 jobs added. Subtract the 28,000 jobs that the BLS claims were "created" by small business via the
Birth Death Model and you have an actual print of just 23,000, however.

Good news! The unemployment rate dropped to 4.6%.

Bad News! According to MacroMavens Stephanie Pomboy on the Buzz and Banter this morning that is actually due to bad news: a dramatic decline in the labor force (-430,000) as opposed to the creation of new jobs (271,000).

Good News! CNBC reported that the rise in average hourly earnings to 4% year-on-year is the strongest wage growth since March 2001.

Bad News! March 2001 was the official start of the last recession.

Good News! This weaker-than-expected number should relieve pressure on interest rates.

Bad News! The bond market is "selling the news" as rates on the 10-year move back above 4.6%

Meanwhile, did you see that the US Dollar is now at its highest level since July 26, prior to the Fed's decision to take a "pause"?

Commodities down. Stocks down. Bonds down. Dollar up.

Somewhere in Vietnam Robert Duvall is on a beach... "I love the smell of napalm in the morning... smells like... victory." Unfortunately, it appears Duvall and the Fed may not be on the same team.

great!

jan-martin

1 Comments:

Anonymous Aaron Krowne said...

Bad news! Real wages/earnings are flat to negative with inflation taken into account!

It never ceases to amaze me how that is almost never reported.

9:05 AM  

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