Friday, October 06, 2006

ratings homebuilder / moodys

moodys ist relativ optimstisch was die kreditratings der builder angeht. mag zum einen daran leigen das eh fast alle schon junk sind. immerhin wird das wachsame auge dazu führen das nicht
im gleichen umfang wie bisher aktien auf pump zurückgekauft werden. ich oersönlich glaube das moodys das ganze zu optimistisch sieht und bin mir sicher das die nächsten downgrades und pleitne kommen werden. kandidat nr.1 ist hier wci.

view from standart&poors
http://immobilienblasen.blogspot.com/2006/08/immobilienblasen-homebuilder-bonds.html

Home builders' bonds take tumble
http://immobilienblasen.blogspot.com/2006/07/homebuilder-bonds.html

dank geht an mish und sein http://www.markettradersforum.com/forum1/

US homebuilder ratings not hurt by slump--Moody`s
http://www.markettradersforum.com/forum1/1905.html

NEW YORK, Oct 5 (Reuters) - The housing sector slump will not likely pressure U.S. homebuilders' ratings because the decline follows several record years and earnings performance has some room to fall, Moody's Investors Service said.

"Even with the slump we're experiencing today, 2006 should end up as the third-best year on record for some of the macroeconomic indicators for housing," Moody's senior credit officer Joseph Snider said in an interview on Thursday.

New and existing home sales should have their third-best year on record, while housing starts will see the third-best year in many years, he said.

Credit quality measures in general have been extremely high for current ratings and therefore have some cushion, Moody's said in a report this week.

For example, all six homebuilders rated "B1," the fourth-highest junk rating, were generating returns on assets comparable to the investment-grade category, Moody's said. Ratings were not raised, however, because the performance did not appear sustainable, Moody's said.

ha, they return assets like investmentgrade firm. this is maybe beause they have had the greatest bull market in history. i think the same was true in the dot.com mania from jdsu and co. after the crash there were no return left....,jan-martin/jmf said.

die begründung das die formen im größten bullenmarkt aller zeiten erträge wie höher geratete firmen erwirtschaften ist meiner mienung nach ein witz. das gleiche hat man sicher auch von den schwachen spielern zu hochzeiten des dot.com wahnsinns behaupten können. wie einzelne beispiele wie wci zeigen ist bei einigen bereits 12 monate nach dem peak gar kein return mehr vorhanden.....jan-martin said

Similarly, Moody's said it will not downgrade ratings because of a cyclical downturn that is likely to reverse in a reasonable time.(2010 or later.....)

"We will, however be watching closely as to how managements behave in this downturn," the rating agency said. Actions such as share repurchases, land buys and acquisitions that raise leverage would be viewed unfavorably, Moody's said.

Of the 22 homebuilders with public debt ratings from Moody's, 19 have stable outlooks, indicating ratings are not likely to be changed over the next 12 to 18 months. One, Kimball Hill, has a positive outlook, while two, WCI Communities Inc. (WCI,Trade) and Technical Olympic USA ((TOA.N)), are on review for downgrade.(really......http://immobilienblasen.blogspot.com/2006/10/what-surprise-wci-warns-again.html)

Building products companies are still benefiting from homes in progress, but that sector may be worse off than the homebuilders, Moody's said.

Leverage is higher, ratings are lower and balance sheets weaker than those of homebuilders, the rating agency said.

"It's also possible that there will be pressure to lower prices from the homebuilders as they look at their cost structures," Moody's said.More negative outlooks on building products companies are expected over the next six to nine months, and some downgrades are likely, the rating agency said.

dank geht hier an ben http://thehousingbubbleblog.com/?p=1573#comments
und james bednar/grim http://njrereport.com/

die einschläge kommen in jedem fall näher. the filings keep coming faster and faster


Home builder may file for bankruptcy protection 05.oktober 2006

EAST BRUNSWICK: Kara Homes, Inc. one of the state's largest private home builders of condominiums and active-adult communities, is anticipating filing for bankruptcy

this is from the 10.september 2006 (just 30 days ago) http://tinyurl.com/u

"At Kara Homes, we've just completed the two most profitable quarters in the history of our company

nun/now PLEITE/BANCRUPT!

wenn die ratingeinschätzungen auf angabe dieser studie von moodys basieren dann dürfte sie auf jeden fall verkehrt liegen. hier sind sie deutlich zu zurückhalten mit ihren einschätzungen. die realitätä hat diese daten teilweise schon eingeholt.

one can hope that moodys is not taking their own studie as a basis to calculate the creditratings. i think they are way to reserved in their predictions.

http://tinyurl.com/nqwxe

[hagerty]

jan-martin

1 Comments:

Anonymous all tours said...

Magnific!

11:20 AM  

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