Monday, October 09, 2006

soft landing? think twice /hussman

die wöchentlichen kommentare von hussman unterscheiden sich in ihrer klaren anaylse wohltuend von dem üblichen getöse das ansonsten alle paar minuten in die anlegerwelt gestreut wird.

dieser chart zeigt einmal mehr das dies in verbindung mit der inversen zinskurve zusammen ein klares signal richtung rezession gibt. die frage wird sein wann und nicht ob der markt diese auch erkennt

this chart in connection with the inverted yield curve shows clear signs that a recession is very likely. the question that remains is not if but when the markets will react to the fundamentals

yield curve/zinskurve
On the economic front, suffice it to say that Friday's revised employment data does nothing to bolster the case for a “soft landing.” Based on the new data, the 6-month growth in total non-farm payroll employment is now 0.52%. Historically, every previous decline in employment growth below 0.55% (the red line) has been associated with a recession.

A single indicator isn't enough to make a strong conclusion about recession risks, but increasingly, the hope for a “soft landing” is at odds with the data.

rest der story



Anonymous Jas Jain said...

Hello Jan-Martin,

Here are editorials on Yield-Curve and Recessions:

Why Yield Inversion Foretells Recession

Accurate Characterization of Yield-Curve & Recession Probabilities

Yield-Curve, Inflation and Recessions: Are Recessions Necessary to Control Inflation in US?

Feel free to post any of the charts and tables on your blog.

Jas Jain

9:04 AM  
Blogger jmf said...

thanks jas.

have seen your post on bens blog.

somehow my latest post were all kicked out.

thanks very much!

10:10 AM  

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