Monday, October 09, 2006

refi wave if ..... / refinanzierungswelle wenn....

wäre doch gelacht wenn die fed das nicht hinbekommen würde..... man fragt sich nur wo der $ bei diesen sätzen stehen würde und wie groß die rezession gleichzeitig sein müßte um diese sätze zu erreichen. denke also im umkehrschluß das selbst diese zinssätze durch den zugrundeliegenden jobverlust überkompensiert werden. zudem besteht noch immer die möglichkeit das die spread der mbs mehr risiko einpreisen. ein gleichlauf zwischen staatsanleihen ist also nicht ausgemacht.

you wonder were the $ in this szenario would be. this rates could only be reached when the us in a deep recession with lots of job cuts. i think these jobcuts will counter the low rates. it is also not clear that when the $ tanks and maybe the mbs is more risk sensitive that the mortagerate will fall in tandem with the treasuries.

dank geht an herb greenberg http://tinyurl.com/qquwd

Mortgage melee from Annaly (nly), citing information from UBS:

“Market participants are beginning to ask: ‘How far do mortgage rates have to fall to generate a significant refi wave?’

The academic answer is based on the likelihood of a borrower with a specific mortgage rate to refinance at a given interest rate… [I]f the mortgage market rates decline approximately 40 bps to 5.93% (roughly corresponding to a 4.13% 10-year Treasury yield), then 34% of the mortgage market would be marginally refinanceable.

If mortgage rates fell to a 5.69% (or about a 3.89% 10-year Treasury), then 58% of the mortgage market would be marginally refinanceable.

For the mortgage market to get to the levels of 2003 when virtually 100% of the market was fully refinanceable, mortgage rates would have to rally to 4.73%, (or about a 2.93% 10-year).” Not holding my breath…yet. Onward...

jan-martin

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