Monday, August 07, 2006

hedgefonds und condos

dürfte eigentlich keinen mehr überraschen. hedgefonds und beteiligungsgesellschaften die voll mit liquidität stecken und das in kombination mit banken die jedes investment bis an die grenzen hebeln. so langsam scheint es mir das auch dort die spitze überschritten worden ist.

man muß hier in deutschland zum beispiel nur an die ganzen deals denken wo ein unternehmen der beteiligungsgesellschaft binnen zwei jahren mit satten profit an die nächste weitergereicht wird. teilweise bereits zum dritten mal. so etwas nennt man wohl anlagenotstand.

in den usa gibt es die wohl übelste kombination: hedgefonds die condos finanziert haben. dazu noch banken die diese finanzierung mit günstigen krediten befeuert haben.

der kommentar kommt vom fantastischen bill fleckenstein:

highlights:


Will love of condo go way of dodo?
One such problem -- the rot that lies ahead for the "structured-finance" wing of the housing food chain -- was the subject of "Condo Woes," a story in last Tuesday's Wall Street Journal (subscription required). Said the story: "In the latest sign that supply of condominiums has outstripped demand, a leading national developer of condo-hotels has missed payments on loans for two major projects."(man beachte das ein großer spieler im condobereich nicht gezahlt hat)

According to a Standard & Poor's report on the health of the commercial mortgage-backed securities market, the story noted, "delinquencies continue to drop, although pockets of weakness exist." The report noted that two commercial mortgages securitized by Credit Suisse (for a Chicago developer) "have caused some concerns."

I'm sure many financial institutions will be impacted negatively by these developments, but so too will many hedge funds. According to the Journal story: BlackRock affiliate Carbon Capital II was the mezzanine lender to the Chicago developer who missed his payments. The hedge fund made the payments and could take over the developer's property (though I'm not sure that was the fund's goal when it made the loan). (wow. wird sicher lustig wenn hedgefonds ganze unverkaufte haochhäuser samt überteuerter eigentunswohnungen besitzen, bin mir sicher das andere hedgefonds diese "disstressed assets" ähnlich wie die faulen kredite der dt. banken aufkaufen werden.)

The toxic detritus of bad debt This is the first I've heard of missed payments by a developer -- though I imagine that others have occurred. I expect to see many more still. However, I have heard about isolated cases of "jingle mail," where homeowners have mailed in the keys because they can't make the payments and no longer have any equity in their homes.

That phrase was a prominent feature of the S&L bust and ensuing real-estate debacle in 1990-1991 -- and something we'll be hearing lots more about in the future. As sure as I am that there's going to be a train wreck in structured finance/derivatives, I'm sure I only have the faintest idea of how bad it's really going to be.

bin mir sicher das hier die nächsten monate noch so manche bombe platzen wird.

gruß
jan-martin

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