Tuesday, July 11, 2006

bericht aus san diego

nachfolgend ein bericht von bob casagrand der immobilienmakler in san diego (ground zero)
ist.


Second Quarter 2006: San Diego Housing Market - single family detached and attached homes: June home sales were 2,947, down 33% from June 2005. The second quarter sales were 8,822 homes sold down 30% from the second quarter last year. As a matter of fact our second quarter sales were slightly below the fourth quarter of 2005. Who would have thought that the peak April, May and June months would have lower sales than the winter/holiday months of October, November and December. That provides a very good picture of what has happened to the demand for housing. The inventory on July 1 stood at 22,049, up from 20,635 a month earlier. For the past few months we have been adding inventory at a rate of about 1,500 homes per month. The growth has been caused by the decline in demand having homes stay on the market longer, causing new listings to stack on top of the unsold listings. One of the major issues for our market is what does the future demand look like, and only time will tell. I did a rough check on July to date (July 9) to see where it stands, I debated about putting this in this writing because the numbers are scary and they will close somewhat by the end of the month. I decided to put it in so that we can see the mountain ahead to maintain some level of reasonable demand. The first 9 days of July have 303 homes sold for an average price of $559,577 and an average size of 1781 sq ft; the first 9 days of July 2005 had sales of 933 and an average price of $629,168 and an average size of 1749 sq ft. Last July's 933 sales represented 25% of the month's sales, if that were to hold this year, well suffice it to say that would be a disaster. I think this July will stay in the 30% to 35% down from last year region and that would put July sales at about 2,700 homes sold, keeping us a path to about 30,000 home sold for the year, down about 30% from last year.Junes' average price was $638,380 up 3% from last year. However, this increase is explained by the fact that the over $1 million sales represent 10% of June total sales where they were only 8.5% of last Junes' sales. When you break down the sales into price & sq ft segments you see a completely price flat market. However, there are neighborhoods already showing price declines of the 4% to 5% region and I expect to see this show up in the overall county statistics. Markets can not sustain 30% declines in demand over a period of time and not have price erosion. Here is a trend to consider; sales in the fourth quarter of 2005 was down 10% from prior year, sales of the first quarter 2006 was down 20% from prior year and the second quarter of 2006 was down 30% from last year third quarter of 2006 ???, anybody's guess. Another issue that will impact price pressures is that about 30% of our listings are vacant and heaven help the Fed continue to raise interest rates. Help comes in the form of something that will increase demand or reduce inventory.

bob ist einer der wenigen der die lage offen ausspricht und bereits seit einigen monaten ne realistische lagebeschreibung abgibt. leider ist er damit ziemlich alleine auf weiter flur.

gruß
jan-martin

update:
nachfolgend ne meinung von gary watts dem cheerleader schlechthin für den immobereich in san diego. vergleicht den "happy times" kommentar mal mit den fakten die oben beschrieben werden. watts muß irgendiwe mit henry blodget oder may meeker verwandt sein.........

Gary Watts, the Mission Viejo broker and economist, says “I would imagine that a ’soft landing’ would have home price appreciation equaling the inflation rate, but O.C. home prices won’t even be in the ‘approach pattern!’ between 10 percent anWe are and will continue to climb to an ‘altitude’ (with price gains) d 12 percent this year. And if we pick up a tail wind in the latter half of this year, we may climb to 15 percent. Next year’s appreciation should also keep O.C. home prices up in the air with no plans for landing anytime soon.”

gruß
jan-martin

update:
so schnell kan es manchmal gehen. anstelle der angekündigten 12% bis 15% sind bereits im juni die ersten jahresvergleiche ins minus (1%) gegangen. seit dem peak in san diego im november ist der median preis um 6% rückläufig. der trend dürfte sich wohl noch deutlich beschleunigen.

das macht die aussage vom ersten update zur farce und dürfte dem typen in einigen jahren zweifelhaften ruhm einbringen.

http://piggington.com/the_u_t_makes_it_official_prices_are_falling

gruß
jan-martin

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