Friday, October 30, 2009

You Know Something Is Wrong When.......

A veteran like Art Cashin is scared that the markets cannot handle ( QUOTE: "Meltdown" , "800 Point Plunge" ) a 2 percent intraday "spike" in the $......Needless to say that after Cashin finished the interview the market scored the biggest gain fueled from the "blockbuster" Government Domestic Product report since July hand in hand with a weaker $...... Shocking to see that this "bulletprove" strategy cannot work indefinitely.....

Wenn ein Veteran wie Art Cashin Angst vor einem Crash ( ZITAT: "Meltdown, "800 Point Plunge") hat nur weil der $ nach einer langen Talfahrt keine 2% intraday Erholung vertragen kann sollte man zumindest mal kurz innehalten..... Brauche wohl nicht zu erwähnen das nur Minuten nachdem Cashin die Bombe hat platzen lassen die Märkte getragen von dem "überzeugenden" Government Domestic Product den größten Tagesgewinn seit Juli haben folgen lassen.... Hand in Hand mit einem stark schwächelnden $...... Schon schade das diese "idiotensichere" Strategie nicht in alle Ewigkeit fortgeführt werden kann.....





Combine this with one of the biggest stock market rallies of all time ( chart ) & the Highest Risk Appetite Since April 2006 among the so called "smart money" and things can get "interesting"....... God forbid when the $ moves lower and the markets refuse to follow the inverse course.....Would probably qualify at least for a "Grey Swan".....

Wenn man nun noch bedenkt das wir gerade eine der gewaltigsten Aktienmarktrallies aller Zeiten ( Chart ) hinter uns haben und die Risikobereitschaft der "Professionellen" den höchsten Stand seit April 2006 erreicht hat kann es schnell "ungemütlich" werden..... Nicht auszudenken was passiert wenn der $ gen Süden geht und die Märkte daraufhin weigern zu steigen..... Denke dann dürften einige Marktteilnehmer zumindest einen "Grey Swan" am Horizont erkennen....;-)

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3 Comments:

Blogger jmf said...

More herding.....

Barron’s Survey: The Bull is Still in Charge
Barrons via Barry

Nearly 60% of the professional investment managers responding to Barron’s fall Big Money poll say they are bullish or very bullish about the stock market’s prospects through the middle of next year. That’s the same percentage of bulls as in our spring survey, and a sure sign the pros regarded the market as severely oversold when the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell to 6547 in early March — a 12-year low.

10:08 PM  
Blogger jmf said...

Couldn´agree more.....

Roubini On The Dollar Carry Reversal, And Why He Is Only Half Way There ZH

10:28 PM  
Blogger jmf said...

Even more herding.....

Fall 2009 Big Money Poll Results Out: Only 13% Are Bearish, 70% Are Beating S&P, As Taxpayers Get Hosed ZH

On economic matters, 72% of respondents believe the recession has ended, and an amusing 52% believe there is no chance of a double dip recession. It is scary that over half of the "sophisticiated community" thinks that Fed can succeed where so many central planning administration have failed before.

7:01 AM  

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