MEW In UK Down Over 20% Q/Q
Es siehr ganz danach aus als wenn der Kaufrauch in den nächsten Jahren in einem Kater enden wird.... Klickt bitte hier um mehr über den wohl momentan gerade am Wendepunkt stehenden Immobilienmarkt in UK zu lesen.
BBCThe property market is going through a clear slowdown, according to figures from the Bank of England.
The number of mortgages approved for house purchase fell in August to 109,000, down from 120,000 a year ago.
The increase in net mortgage lending in August was also down by 11% on the same month last year.
The Bank's analysis makes it clear that mortgage lending has been slowing down since the start of the year, as higher interest rates have taken effect.
Downturn
The number of new mortgages approved for house buying - a good indicator of future trends in the property market - touched a recent peak of 128,000 in November 2006.
Although the figures are erratic from month to month, the trend since then has been downward, with the monthly average for the past six months now standing at 112,000.
Earlier in September, the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors said that in August slightly more of its members had seen house prices fall locally than saw them rise.
That was the first time this had happened since October 2005.
Housing equity
Other figures from the Bank also showed a drop in home owners' enthusiasm for cashing in on the increased value of their properties.
Housing equity withdrawal, where owners take out bigger mortgages to spend on things other than their homes, fell from £13.1bn in the first quarter of the year to £10bn in the second quarter.
It was the third quarter in a row that this sort of borrowing has dropped and probably reflects the higher cost of borrowing seen since the middle of 2006.
Since the start of 2000, UK home owners have borrowed £287bn, providing a very significant boost to peoples' incomes.
In the second quarter of this year, housing equity withdrawal increased the after-tax income of all UK households by 4.5%.
> Hereare the latest US numbers via Calculated Risk
> Hier die letzten US daten in Sachen MEW von Calculated Risk
Labels: bubble world tour, mew, uk
posted by jmf at 11:51 PM
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U.K. Service Industries' Growth Slows to 13-Month Low
Growth in U.K. service industries from banks to hotels weakened to a 13-month low in September, a sign rising borrowing costs are starting to slow the pace of economic growth.
British banks gorge on ECB's cheap credit
British lenders are shunning the Bank of England and turning instead to the European Central Bank on a massive scale, taking advantage of much lower interest rates and guaranteed anonymity to weather the credit crunch.
EU sources say Britain's banks have been clamouring for money in Frankfurt, accounting for a substantial chunk of the €190bn (£132bn) lent last week in the ECB's variable tender operation. "It is fair to say they have been borrowing from the ECB on a very large scale. It's cheap, so why not," said one official.
Hans Redeker, currency chief at BNP Paribas, said British reliance on ECB funds has become to big that it is leaving a clear footprint in the currency markets, forcing up sterling on the days following ECB tenders as the banks switch euros into pounds – typically Thursdays, Fridays, and Mondays.
"There's been a huge amount of borrowing. It is causing movements in the euro-sterling exchange rate that do not make any sense otherwise. It is why the pound shot up in early September when the liquidity crisis was in full swing and there was nothing to justify this," he said.
"The money markets may look as if they are functioning again in Britain, but in reality they are not," he said. Mr Redeker believes the key motive in going to Frankfurt is the certainty of secrecy, rather than the lower interest rate.
"Nobody wants to take up the Bank of England's three-month tender because of the stigma. They will be punished immediately by the markets," he said.
While the Bank of England says it will not publish names, there are concerns that the British press will unearth the story somehow. It is safer to stick to Frankfurt, where the ECB does not even reveal the nationality of banks coming to the window -- masking the picture.
the UK could get really ugly over the next few years.
Huge consumer debt levels leveraged on property values that have increased far further than the US did. Wage growth that will stay low due to continued immigration from Eastern Europe now that those countries are in the EU (Poland especially, I read in Newsweek this week that 700,000 Poles are now working in the UK). A strong pound that isn't helping export growth. And lower bonuses and job losses to come in the City of London if credit markets remain subdued.
Look for a lower pound and for the CAC/DAX to outperform the FTSE over the next year or three.
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