Sunday, June 03, 2007

Speculating on Speculation / Hussman

amusing stuff from Hussman. click on the headline to read the entire piece.

lustiges von Hussman. klickt bitte auf die überschrift um den ganzen kommentar zu lesen.

Henny Youngman used to tell a story about a guy who hears a little voice in his head singing “Go to Las Vegas .” So the guy immediately turns his car around and heads for Las Vegas . The voice says “Go to the roulette table.” The guy goes to the roulette table. The voice says “Put $10,000 down on red.” The guy puts $10,000 down on red.

He loses. The voice says, “Hey, how ‘bout that?”

Investors are hearing a thousand little voices here telling them to “ride the bull,” that stocks have a “floor” under them, and that valuations are cheap. Whatever risks investors choose to take, they would do well to recognize that if those risks go terribly wrong, most of those little voices will be passive observers with nothing to say but “Hey, how ‘bout that.” You should evaluate every argument, bullish or bearish, based on the quality of the evidence and the credibility of the source........

thanks to

Henny Youngman used to tell another story - this guy tells his broker to buy a stock at $5. “Buy as much as you can.” The next day the broker calls back and says the stock is at 6. The guy says “keep buying.” The next day the broker says “the stock is at 7, do you want to sell?” The guy says “keep buying.” Finally, the guy calls his broker and says, “Sell everything at 9.” The broker says “to who?”



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