Thursday, May 31, 2007

U.S. Economy Expanded at a 0.6% Annual Rate in First Quarter / weakest in more than 4 years

thank god that the housing spillover is "contained".... more from paper money


nur gut das die probleme im immomarkt nicht auf die wirtschaft ausstrahlen.....

U.S. economy grew last quarter at a 0.6 percent annual rate, the weakest in more than four years, as housing slumped, the trade deficit widened and businesses reduced inventories.

The gain in gross domestic product is the weakest since the last three months of 2002 and compares with a 1.3 percent pace initially estimated last month, according to revised figures from the Commerce Department today in Washington.

Last quarter may prove to be the low point for the economy as recent reports showed business spending improved and leaner stockpiles prompted factories to boost production, economists said. Such an outcome would bear out forecasts by Federal Reserve policy makers, who this month reiterated that growth will pickup for the rest of this year and into next

>the same "experts" that saw a strong q1 at the end of 2006....

>von den gleichen hellen köpfen ide ende 2006 ein starkes q1 2007 erwartet haben....

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3 Comments:

Anonymous Anonymous said...

and those numbers were b4 the subprime meltdown. R word next two quarters.

5:05 PM  
Blogger jmf said...

very good point!

thanks

9:23 PM  
Blogger jmf said...

here is a good take from mish

If one believes as I do, that the first 2% of GDP is hedonics, imputations and other fictional activity (e.g. the estimated value of things like free checking accounts - yes I am serious - added into the GDP numbers), then we are already in a recession starting now.

What is most interesting is the notion that this is some sort of optimistic report. It is not. Rather than looking at inventories that have to be replenished, the correct way to look at things is that GDP was up a mere 0.6% in spite of very robust consumer spending. If +0.6% GDP is all the US can muster with strong consumer spending, it should be obvious what will happen when consumers toss in the towel.

http://www.minyanville.com/articles/Home+Prices-GDP-US-Consumer/index/a/12986

9:52 PM  

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