Friday, March 09, 2007

employment report feb. 2007

this cartoon is becoming more reality every month......

dieser cartoon wird immer mehr zur realität.....


lets do the math. 118.000 jobs via the black box "birth death model" (vs 116.000 in 2005 when the economy wasn´t in a downturn) and of the 97.000 created were 39.000 40% government jobs. ouch! the quality of the numbers is deteriorating. and i view this report as weak http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm

ihr könnt ja sleber mal nachrechnen. 118.000 nur geschätzt (keiner weis nach welcher formel) das ist umso erstaunlicher als in 2006 116.000 geschätzt wurden. und in 07 befindet sich die wirtschaft unbestreitbar in ner schwächephase. von den übriggebliebenen 97.000 sind dann noch satte 40% jobs die vom staat geschaffen worden sind. schwache qualität der zahlen.


the formula for the birth death model? :-)


U.S. Feb. services payrolls up 168,000
U.S. Dec., Jan. payrolls revised up 55,000
U.S. Feb. factory payrolls fall 14,000
U.S. Feb. construction payrolls fall 62,000
U.S. Feb. average workweek falls to 33.7 hours.
U.S. Feb. average hourly earnings up 0.4% vs. 0.3%
U.S. Feb. unemployment rate falls to 4.5% vs. 4.6%
U.S. Feb. nonfarm payrolls up 97,000 vs. 100,000 expected

Builders cut 62,000 jobs, the biggest decline since January 1991, after adding 28,000 the prior month.


i wanted to highlight that despite the numerous layoffs from the lendingindustry it looks like the whole finance sector has added jobs. maybe there is a time lag until they become effective and/or other financial are on a hiring binge. another reason could be that lots of brokers etc were self employed. but i remain sceptical....http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.t14.htm

2007 Net Birth/Death Adjustment (in thousands)
SupersectorJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDec

Natural Resources & Mining

-21

Construction

-5211

Manufacturing

-233

Trade, Transportation, & Utilities

-2910

Information

-95

Financial Activities

-1711

Professional & Business Services

-4828

Education & Health Services

1012

Leisure & Hospitality

134

Other Services

-63

Total

-175118



from bloomberg http://tinyurl.com/27lufd

but maybe the weather was the reason for the poor number: (but it feels like this argument comes always when the numbers are weaker.....)

Poor weather kept 505,000 people from working in February, more than twice as many as a year earlier, the Labor Department said.

Hiring in other industries (government !) helped make up for the biggest drop in construction jobs in 15 years, a sign that the slowdown in housing isn't filtering through to the rest of the economy

more/different views on the jobs number

from calculated risk http://tinyurl.com/27956r

a nice rant from rodger rafer ! http://tinyurl.com/25gdos

from tim "Fewer Drywall Nailers, More Baristas " http://tinyurl.com/2kvx9q

from mike larson http://tinyurl.com/ynwl56

from mish http://tinyurl.com/254ll3

northern trust http://tinyurl.com/ypp5am (pdf)

and another must see from mish! http://tinyurl.com/2g23an


remember that the data is revised 5-7 times during the next 12 month... (sarcasm of)

eigentlich lohnt die ganze aufregung eh nicht da die daten mehrere male binnen der nächsten monate revidiert werden......

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2 Comments:

Blogger Lauriston said...

it'd be fun to find economists who can predict the revisions to the numbers, long before the revisions come out! I am surprised the government hasn't got into that yet. It will be like predicting the past! Viel Spaß!

1:51 PM  
Blogger jmf said...

you mean to analyze things, looking forward, independent thinking, telling the truth, etc

you must be kidding.... :-)

12:02 AM  

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