Wednesday, February 28, 2007

U.S. Subprime Auto ABS Indexes Weaker

no surprise that the subprime mess is spreading. to be honest i was surprised that the delinquency rate is still so much lower than in the real estate backed securities (see graph). but i´m pretty sure that this will change very soon. the real job related fall out will lead to a big hit in this segment. and it is no wonder that the "bank´s willingness to make consumer loans" (graph 2)is falling fast......

keine überraschung das die probleme im suprimesegment nicht isoliert bleiben. ich persönlich hätte erwartet das die "problemkredite" deutlich näher an den der immogedeckten hängen (s. grafik). gehe jde wette ein das sich das in ganz naher zukunft ändern und angleichen wird. der negative arbeitsmakteffekt des immogetriebenen abschwungs wird diese jahr eintreten. kein wunder also das die banken in sachen konsumentenkredite ( 2.grafik) rapide fällt......


but i think that gm, ford, chrysler etc have no choice but to lend to everybody with a pulse......to sell their cars/suv´s

will be interesting to see how long the investors are picking up the auto abs and when/if we will see a similar problems like the ones in the mortgage mbs. http://immobilienblasen.blogspot.com/2007/02/no-worries-loan-loss.html

dumm nur das gm, ford, chrysler etc wohl keine andere wahl haben als weiter an jeden noch so schwachen kreditnehmer kredite zu verteilen.....um überhaupt noch autos und suv´s zu verkaufen.

spannend bleibt die frage wann und ob der markt genauso implodieren wird wie das mit immobilien hinterlegte mbs segment. (link oben)




thanks to realist and russ winter http://wallstreetexaminer.com/blogs/winter/?p=477#comments

NEW YORK, Feb 28, 2007 (BUSINESS WIRE) -- Subprime delinquencies for US auto loans rose 4.1% in January versus December 2006, while the annualized net loss (ANL) index spiked 31.4%, ...

'Approximately 70% of the transactions in the subprime ANL index recorded higher loss levels in January as the index hit its highest level in nearly three years"....


The subprime ANL jumped to 8.67% in January from 6.60% in December 2006, and on a year-over-year basis, the index was 24.2% higher versus January 2006. However, the spike in ANL may have been exaggerated slightly by one subprime issuer included in the index.

This issuer implemented a change in their servicing policy resulting in a spike in their ANL. ...... The subprime delinquency index was at 2.82% in January, slightly higher than the 2.71% recorded in December 2006.



In the prime sector, 60+ days delinquencies were at 0.58% in January, 9.4% higher versus December 2006 and 3.3% lower on a year-over-year basis.

Prime ANL were 0.89% in January, 7.2% higher than in December. This is the highest level the index has hit since February 2006. However, ANL remain down on a year-over-year basis by 17%.

Auto ABS issuance was quite healthy in January with $3.47 billion coming to market in four transactions, namely two subprime, one prime, and one motorcycle loan transaction. Issuance in early-to-mid February was active with over $8.0 billion issued through the first three weeks of February; $12.37 billion was issued in February 2006.

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1 Comments:

Blogger Work Home Union said...

Very nice article on the sad state of the economy.

4:37 AM  

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