dieses beispiel zeigt einmal mehr wie dürftig es teilweise um die gewinnqualität der banken bestellt ist. wir müssen hier nur zur hypovereinsbank mit den ostimmobilien blicken um zu erahnen was kommen wird. und das komplette subprimesegment ist von rekordgewinnen bis mitte 2006 zu rekordverlusten in nur 6 monaten gekippt. man sollte sich also nicht von den niedrigen kgv´s und divrenditen locken lassen.sieht so aus als wenn die regnerischen tage zurück sind.
That's the headline from today's WSJ on banks keeping less money in reserve.
We've noted the selloff in financials over the past week on the Buzz & Banter, remarking a number of times on the increasing number of technical breakdowns in Banks, Real Estate, Insurance and Finance stocks.
Perhaps this is the reason for the breakdowns in certain financials: over the past few years banks have dramatically lowered the level of their reserves.
Bank reserves are established to handle the percentage of their loan portfolios exposed to potential
According to the Journal article, investors in financials have benefited greatly from the sharp falloff in bank reserve levels since that helps boost profits.
"From 2004 to 2006, the nation's biggest banks received 37% of their earnings growth from reductions in their loan-loss reserves, (WOW!!!!!!!!!!!!!)
Meanwhile, problems building in the subprime lending segment are awakening regulators to the possibility that perhaps banks are overestimating the quality of their loan portfolios.
..., a number of banks have drawn down their reserves for bad loans to "apparently unsustainably low levels."
The common refrain in defense of the current low reserve levels is that banks are more sophisticated at measuring default risk and that current repayment problems are isolated to the weakest segment of borrowers.
Sounds good. Except that, according to the FT, late payments and defaults in the so-called Alt-A market, catering to consumers with slightly better than subprime credit, are running at four times the historical rate.
FT: Treasury prices rose on Monday as fixed income investors sought a safe haven amid fears that repayment problems involving “subprime” US mortgage borrowers could have knock-on effects in the broader $8,000bn mortgage market and beyond.
The latest concerns centre on the Alt-A market, in which consumers with slightly better credit than the weakest subprime borrowers can obtain loans with loose terms - such as no proof of income. Late payments and defaults on such loans are running at four times the historical rate.
“The delinquency numbers for the 2006 Alt-A originations are materially worse than a lot of people would have expected,” said Charles Sorrentino, mortgage analyst at Merrill Lynch.
The annual cost of credit protection on the ABX index of mortgage bonds rated BBB- rose to 14 per cent, up from 13 per cent at the start of the day and just slightly off last week’s record of 15 per cent. Three weeks ago, the price of such protection was 2.5 per cent.(end ft)
We could also point out that late payments and defaults are understated since a "readjustment" of the loan provisions keeps them out of the reporting criteria, but why spoil a solid case of denial?
more on this topic from calculated risk http://calculatedrisk.blogspot.com/2007/02/fdic-housing-slowdown-poses-challenge.html