Thursday, February 08, 2007

The real risks of private equity / ($) economist

what will happen when all these private equity firms wanted to exit their investments..... or interest rates ....or spreads will rise? who will then left to buy these debt burdened companies?

was wird eigentlich passieren wenn all diese investments versilbert werden sollen.....oder zinsen...oder die spreads steigen werden.? wer bleibt dann noch nach diese bis über beiden ohren verschuldeten firmen zu erwerben.? spannend

thanks to

The people who should really be concerned about the private-equity boom are rarely mentioned: investors

private-equity returns are not really very “alternative”, since the forces that drive them also drive the stockmarket. ( and can they get better from now on?/ kann es von hier noch besser werden?)

As the manager of a traditional fund puts it:

I fail to understand why it's a good idea for clients to take money away from me and give it to private-equity groups who charge higher fees for buying quoted shares at a 20% premium.” (nominee for the quote of the day...../ nominiert für "zitat des tages....)

Studies suggest that investors have so far done well out of private equity, with the average buy-out fund beating the S&P 500 index in 1980-2001. But these figures come with a large health warning. First, the 1980s and 1990s saw generally falling interest rates and rising share prices—the ideal background for private equity to succeed.

( i think that at least from 2001 up to 2004/2005 they have also beaten the s&p500. but the majority of deals done in past quarters looks more challenging. like this excess in from blackstone/equity office,

pe hat sicher auch in den jahren bis 2004-2005 den aktienmarkt outperformed. ne ganze menge deals die allerdings zuletzt gemacht worden sind erscheinen doch ziemlich riskant. mit dem höhepunkt von blackstone und equity office für 40 mrd$ cash.)

Second, the modern private-equity industry is built on a far greater scale than a decade ago.

In 1991 just 57 funds jostled for deals, according to Private Equity Intelligence, a research firm; by the end of last year, 686 were in the chase.

The $430 billion private-equity funds raised was more than the industry drummed up between 1990 and 1998. ( add the leverage and you get the picture.../ beachtet den hebel und man kann erahnen was für ne feuerkraft sich dahinter verbirgt)

As more money piles into the business, groups could lose their focus, and competition could push up the prices for deals and force down future returns. Indeed, research shows that the more money is raised by private-equity funds in any year, the lower returns tend to be.

thanks to

The last peak for fund-raising was 2000, the year of the dotcom crash. ( good omen...gutes omen)

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