Thursday, February 15, 2007

Optimism on Global Stocks Climbs to 10-Month High

you would think that with almost every asset class hitting new highs that the demand for protection should lead to a higher a vix etc.....think again........ lots of the optimism is based on the believe in the fed and the " the U.S. Federal Reserve suggested economic growth is accelerating without generating faster inflation" good luck .......

reality check: read this"In less than two weeks the 4th quarter US GDP was revised lower from +3.5% or so to something closer to +2.0 to +2.5%" cleary an uptick in groth........
"http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2007/02/us-gdp-flunks-smell-test.html,
http://bigpicture.typepad.com/comments/2007/02/revisiting_gdp.html

man sollte meinen das wenn fast alle anlageklassen neue rekorde erreichen der bedarf nach absicherung hoch sein müßte. falsch gedacht....... der großteil des optimismus ist darauf zurückzuführen das ide fed es schon irgendwie regeln wird und der o.a. aussage. viel glück.....




Feb. 14 (Bloomberg) -- Investors in February were the most bullish on stocks in 10 months as concern eased that economic growth is slowing, a Merrill Lynch & Co. survey showed.

Europe remained money managers' favorite market, with optimism about the region reaching an 18-month high, according to 206 respondents worldwide who together oversee $680 billion.

``Investor pessimism towards global growth prospects is fading,'' said David Bowers, a consultant to Merrill, the third- biggest U.S. securities firm by market value. He spoke at a press briefing in London today. ``They are starting to think that maybe it isn't the time to pull the plug on equities.''

Morgan Stanley Capital International's World Index has climbed 3.1 percent in the past month to a record....

Stock benchmarks in countries including Switzerland, Israel, Russia, Brazil and China, as well as the Dow Jones Industrial Average in the U.S., have touched all-time highs in 2007.

A net 57 percent of fund managers questioned by Merrill this month said they were ``overweight'' equities. That's up from 47 percent in January and 50 percent in December, which at the time was the highest since April's 58 percent.

``People are starting to reassess where we are in the global economic cycle,'' Bowers said. ``It's an important message for the Fed as people believe there is more to come on growth.''

Lowest Since May
Twenty-six percent of respondents this month said they expect economic growth to weaken in the next 12 months, the survey showed. The amount fell from 35 percent in January and was the lowest since May.

Forty-seven percent held an overweight position on shares in the euro region this month.....


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