Wednesday, February 14, 2007

British Land warns property boom (may) be over

when the 2nd. biggest property company in europe speaks you better should listen. and it looks like times are getting tougher..... can´t wait fro the blackstone bid with a big premium.....:-)

here is the official press release (PDF)

and when you read the stories under the label for uk and london you can guess that the peak is passed or at least very close.

wenn die zweitgrößte immobiliengesellschaft in europa spricht sollte man die worte besser ernst nehmen. und es sieht in der tat so aus als wenn die zeiten eher schlechter werden. ....kann kaum das blackstoneangebot inkl. satter prämie abwarten.......:-)

und wenn ihr euch die diversen geschichten unter den labeln zu uk und london durchlest kommt man zu dem gefühl das es wirklich nur noch gen süden gehen kann.

Net asset value, used to gauge the performance of U.K. real estate companies, dropped 0.9 percent to 1,610 pence at Dec. 31, the end of British Land's fiscal third quarter, the London-based company said today in a statement. Lehman Brothers had forecast 1,636 pence.

Central London offices are the best-performing type of U.K. commercial real estate. Offices in the West End, the most expensive in the world, returned 32 percent last year, compared with 18 percent for all U.K. commercial real estate, IPD said Feb. 1.

from the release: think you need to read between the lines.../zwischen den zeilen lesen...)

"Real estate markets are difficult to call at present.

The fundamentals remain strong. A healthy
economy, strong employment and a central bank determined to combat inflationary pressures are a good recipe for our business. ( just the same you can read in 99% of all press releases / das dürfte man in 99% aller veröffentlichungen lesen)

It means rental growth is available to boost returns. Solid asset backing and long-term dependable cash flows support property yields and give the prospect of total returns comparing fairly to bonds and equities on a risk adjusted basis.

On a sectoral view, expansion of London’s service industries and national consumer spending in positive territory underpin our customers’ ability to expand in the best space – which British Land is well placed to offer......

Thankfully, British Land remains positioned to produce growth and attractive returns in the more demanding markets in prospect. Our asset values are well supported – perhaps even conservative in places – and rental growth prospects are good.

Stephen Hester, chief executive, said: “2006 saw further property yield reductions, now twinned with a modest rise in bond yields to underline our own view that the property investment case can no longer rely on further positive yield shift.”....

Equally, those parts of the property market where price appreciationhas gone further than the fundamentals of customer demand and risk assessment support, maydisappoint some investors."

The portfolio focuses on areas where the principles of supply and demand are strong over the long term. Some 47% is invested in out of town retail properties, including Meadowhall Shopping Centre (one of only six regional shopping centres in the UK), 128 retail warehouses and 71 Superstores. A further 34% is invested in Central London offices and office developments, including Broadgate (the premier City office estate).

Key Facts
Value £15.9 billion Wholly owned portfolio

£13.4 billion Share of Joint Ventures and
Funds £2.5 billion
Annualised net rents: £643

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