Friday, December 01, 2006

Growth forecasts 2007/2008

to be honest i really find this longer term forecasts useless. in the us they can´t even figure out the next quarter. bernanke sees at it 2,6%, deutsche bank calls the gdp 0,0%! but one thing is for sure. when the housingbubble bursts it will crash the numbers (like in the us from over 5% in the first quarter to around 1-2% and falling.....). and i think that is no surprise that the countries with the bigger bubbles are leading the forecasts.......http://immobilienblasen.blogspot.com/2006/09/bubble-goes-global.html#links

halte diese längeren prognosen für wertlos. in den usa können ide nicht mal das nächste quartal vorhersagen. bernanke sieht es bei 2,6%. die deutsche bank erwartet 0% gdp wachstum. eines aber dürfte klar sein. wenn die immobilienblasen in den jeweiligen ländern zu ende sind kann man alle prognosen getrost über den haufen werfen. (wie in den usa wo das wachstum von über 5% auf 1-2% und weiter fallen an die wand gefahren ist). und es ist sicher kein zufall das die länder die liste mit den höchten werten anführen wo diese blase noch nicht geplatzt ist.http://immobilienblasen.blogspot.com/2006/09/bubble-goes-global.html#links

http://www.economist.com/markets/indicators/displaystory.cfm?story_id=8360075
The OECD forecasts that growth in its member countries will slow to an average rate of 2.6% in 2007 and 2008, down from 3.2% this year. America and Japan are expected to see a sharper slowdown than the euro area. Ireland (wait until the housing bubble has burst......http://immobilienblasen.blogspot.com/search?q=bubble+goes+global+is tipped to remain the fastest-expanding of the rich economies in our chart, with average growth of 4.8% over the two years. At the other extreme, Italy is forecast to grow by a measly average of only 1.5%.


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