Wednesday, October 04, 2006

Housing chill strikes home / ripple effect

nachfolgend die bisher umfassenste zusammenfassung wieweit der dwonturn schon jetzt auswirkungen in baunahen sektoren hat. der entscheidenste faktor ist und bleibt aber wohl der abnehmende "wealth"effekt der keine refinanzierungen mehr ermöglicht und die einsicht auf hohen schulden samt abnehmenden asset zu sitzen.

Cabinetmakers, pool suppliers and toolmakers warn as demand falters
http://tinyurl.com/pwo8m

highlights:

It's not just homeowners and homebuilders that have a lot to lose if tremors roiling the real estate market turn into a full-scale quake.

Manufacturers of everything from drywall to the kitchen sink are also vulnerable to stagnant or declining sales as fewer houses change hands.

"Do a mental walk around your house and look at appliances and fixtures," to see what companies are exposed to the housing market, said Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist for Standard & Poor's.


Firms such as kitchen cabinet maker Masco Corp. and tool-maker Illinois Tool Works Inc. have already warned about an earnings pinch from slowing U.S. home sales. .........

Home prices and sales have been slipping. The NAHB expects remodeling activity to continue to expand but at a slower rate.

The Dow Jones Building Materials and Fixtures Index has fallen over 18% since an April high, as has the Dow Jones U.S. Forestry Index .

For many companies, the five-year housing boom was a sales bonanza. Not only did more homebuyers jump into the market, they also indulged an appetite for more living space than ever before. That meant more demand for windows, paneling and central air conditioning.


Last year, the average new U.S. home was about 2,434 square feet, compared to 1,500 square feet in the 1970s, says NAHB staff vice president of research Gopal Ahluwalia.

Some 40% of new homes had ceilings at least 9 feet high. In the 1980s, less than 15% could make that claim, says Ahluwalia.

Those with a more diverse customer base will likely perform far better. Consider American Standard Co.

It sells air conditioners, as well as kitchen faucets, toilets and bathtubs. But 70% of its air conditioner unit sales are to commercial customers and 64% of its bath and kitchen sales take place outside the U.S. All told, only about 25% of its sales have strong ties to U.S. households. (too bad that commercial real estate is close to a bubble and lets hope that they are not selling to uk, australia, ireland, spain etc.....)

Meanwhile, shares in homebuilders have been rallying in the past few weeks on the idea that a housing downturn has already been factored into their share price.

Some investors think it's time to look for value among buildings material companies whose shares got dragged down in the broad housing-related sell-off.

Buying housing-related stocks on the idea that shares have been overly discounted "is a good idea if you're nimble enough," said S&P's Stovall.

But there's no guarantee that the housing market has hit bottom yet.

"If we find that it's just the tip of the iceberg, this counter-trend rally could lose steam and these stocks could get hammered again," he said.

The lumber makers

Federal Way, Wash.-based Weyerhaeuser Co. is the world's biggest producer of softwood lumber. It also makes the most engineered lumber, which includes made-for-housing construction products like roof joists and beams. And it owns several homebuilders. (bad combination)

Once it spins off its paper business -- a deal it expects will close in the first quarter of 2007 -- about 45% of its revenues will come from wood products. Already, the slowing housing market has prompted it to wind down some production. On Monday night, the company said it was shutting output at two Canadian mills that make plywood and lumber for residential construction, to "balance our production to our orders."

Louisiana-Pacific Corp. is another big supplier of lumber and wood products for the housing industry.

At Rohm & Haas , North American paint sales accounts for about one-tenth of the company's roughly $8 billion in annual revenue. All that whitewash could wipe out some profits, says Citigroup analyst P.J. Juvekar, who expects Rohm & Haas earnings to fall next year. Juvekar says changes in home sales have tracked closely with the number of gallons of architectural paint sold over the past 25 years, as well as Rohm & Haas' stock price. Rohm & Haas, for its part, maintains that its sales to the paint market have more to do with remodeling activity than housing sales.

Window, cabinet and air-conditioning manufacturers

Masco, which sells kitchen cabinets and bathroom fixtures under the brands Mill's Pride, KraftMaid and Peerless Faucets, lowered its 2006 earnings forecast last month after new orders weakened in September. "Like many in the housing industry, we have been surprised by the severity and rapidity of the current housing decline," Masco Chief Executive Richard Manoogian said.
See full story.

Emerson , which makes air conditioning equipment and parts, says growth in its appliance components business is "based on consumer spending and housing and also a business that's probably one of the most challenging," right now.

The pool and bath suppliers
Last week, Pentair Inc. cut its sales and earnings forecast for the third and fourth quarters, saying a slowing housing market was cutting into demand for its pool equipment. http://immobilienblasen.blogspot.com/2006/09/lows-pentair-ethan-allen.html

Wallboard and insulation makers

Eagle Materials
Inc. last week cut its earnings outlook after a drop in new home construction cut into its gypsum wallboard and paper businesses.

U.S. Gypsum Corp. is the largest supplier of wallboard, which it sells under the brand-name SheetRock. About 60% of its revenue last year came from new home construction and remodeling,
A drop in home starts would directly eat into demand for its flagship product. A 10% decline in home starts translates into about a 4% decline in wallboard demand from current levels. But some of that reduced appetite from homebuilders could be handled by shutting factories and reducing supply, says the company. (fewer jobs.....)

Owens Corning , in the final stage of bankruptcy reorganization, produces more insulation than any other firm, plus sells roofing tiles and other building materials. About one-third of its sales are tied to new home construction.

Construction equipment

Some 12% of sales at Ingersoll-Rand , which makes Bobcat construction equipment used to dig ditches and lay sod, may have exposure to residential housing and "will clearly be under pressure as both new and existing home sales continue to decline," says Deutsche Bank.
The company, which also makes Schlage locks, doorknobs and similar hardware, says it doesn't break out its market exposure.

The tool companies

Illinois Tool Works Inc. , which makes welding and concrete fastening tools for the construction industry, citing a weakened market for new homes when forecast earnings that fell short of analysts' expectations last month.

Black & Decker Corp. , which makes Price Pfister faucets and DeWalt tools, hasn't updated its outlook for the third quarter. But back in the second quarter, it reported a 6% drop in hardware and home improvement sales. Shares have fallen 8% this year.

What's filling up the garage

Toro Co. ( in late August cut its outlook for full-year sales growth to 3% to 5% from 8%, complaining that a weakening housing market has kept consumers from buying as many new lawn mowers or snow blowers.


jan-martin

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How does Instant Keto paintings?
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10:10 PM  
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Any Side Effects from Instant Keto ?
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Green tea
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Blogger james said...

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Blogger Blog said...

Tier 2 Keto Weight Loss – The satisfactory dietary supplement
Tier 2 Keto Weight Loss What's the most alarming situation human beings are in these days? He's obese and overweight! In step with a examine recently posted in a popular mag, more than half of of the population inside the united states is overweight. Similarly, the same situation takes place anywhere when you pass the world. A stubborn life-style, a workaholic and a dedication to work made us be afflicted by this trouble. It is a known reality that gaining more pounds is less difficult than burning them.

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11:48 PM  
Blogger Blog said...

Keto BodyTone Appearance, the first actual priority of Ketogenic food plan is to be overweight in the first place because you'll input into Ketosis which most effective runs on fat instead of carbs. The top rate fat burners play an vital component inside the Keto Cycle as each compound stimulate thermogenesis receptors inside the body to raise metabolic level for purchasing equipped for Ketosis.
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12:03 AM  
Blogger Blog said...

How does Biogenix RX paintings in an powerful manner?
Biogenix RX lets you give exceptional bodily health. It solves your problem in this kind of way that it gives you effects in supplying you with extra penis size. Furthermore, it additionally improves your stamina. This product neglects the problem of early ejection supplying you with a long time sexual lifestyles. Biogenix RX is secure to apply as it consists of all the organic products. The elements are made up from the extracts of plants and animals. There are no chemical substances or components which are delivered to this product. Therefore, you may use it without difficulty without any sort of pressure.

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9:53 PM  
Blogger Blog said...

Alpha Thunder Testo carry out your exercises often
live hydrated by drinking plenty of water daily
consume the doses as prescribed daily for ninety days to acquire great effects
What are the facet outcomes of Alpha Thunder Testo?
There are no aspect results related to Alpha Thunder Testo as it's far designed with herbs and clinically approved elements. However, it's miles cautioned that you eat it in prescribed doses after consulting your physician. Ingesting the system in excessive doses can result in damaging consequences and this consists of:

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1:45 AM  
Blogger Blog said...

Always Lean Keto Client reviews –
Cynthia N. Carbaugh/ 26 years
I'm a working female and i had been going through the obese trouble for 3 years. Until the twenty fourth i used to be suit and slim, however after I moved from my house and dwelling in the PG, i was won a whole lot of fat. And this turned into making issues for me in my professional and personal lifestyles.
And that i tried to lose it, but nothing came into my hand, then I tried Keto food regimen with Always Lean Keto, and this become wonderful. Due to the fact within 1 month, I misplaced 5kg. And This turned into a extraordinary start, and thru the consistency with it, I got my excellent frame form. And i've now my frame shape like 24.

3:13 AM  
Blogger Blog said...

Where to order Nature Crave Keto?
You could place your order for Nature Crave Keto on-line by visiting the legitimate internet site of the method.
Dropping weight is some thing that is impossible and challenging for most people across the world. Each new technique that claim to burn off fats cells are tried and tested with the aid of these organization of human beings, however the stop consequences are not fulfilling. So, to assist burn off some healthy and faster weight a innovative method called Nature Crave Keto is designed which is based totally on ketosis method. Nature Crave Keto is the method which optimizes the general frame weight and supplies you quicker weight reduction effects. That is performed efficiently by means of improving the ketosis technique of your frame that efficiently burns off the saved fat cells in place of carbohydrate to produce electricity.

3:30 AM  
Blogger hassan said...

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5:38 AM  
Blogger Health said...

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