Tuesday, September 19, 2006

wall street analysten / what are they smoking?

in sachen analysten haben ich schon ne menge gesagt
http://immobilienblasen.blogspot.com/2006/09/analysten-wall-street-zu-kb-homes.html
http://immobilienblasen.blogspot.com/2006/07/fundstck-des-tages.html
http://immobilienblasen.blogspot.com/2006/08/wci-builder-von-condos-in-florida.html
http://immobilienblasen.blogspot.com/2006/08/analyst-von-jmp-sec-zu-wci.html

das ganze könnte ein richtig guter call sein wenn nicht diese aberwitzige begründung sein würde.


Lehman Brothers downgrades CSX Corp., Norfolk Southern

Lehman Brothers downgraded rail freight company CSX Corp to equal weight from overweight and peer Norfolk Southern Corp. to underweight from equal weight. The broker was broadly bullish on the sector.

"We believe railroads in general are almost fully discounting a historically recession-like scenario amid improved industry fundamentals," it noted.

so sieht also ein chart aus der ne mögliche rezession eingepreist hat. und das im konjunkturabhängigen transportsektor? dachte immer das ist ne zyklische branche. nich besser wenn man bedekt das für das angebliche eingepreiste rezessionszenario mit 15% eps wachstum und 7% umsatzwachstum erwartet werden.

really looks like a chart that priced in a recession in 07! that in a highly cyclical sektor like the transports. wall streets on average still expects 15% eps groth and 7% sales increase. the call relating to the stock price is great but the reasons/arguments are really a joke.

Earnings EstCurrent Qtr
Sep-06
Next Qtr
Dec-06
Current Year
Dec-06
Next Year
Dec-07
Avg. Estimate 0.510.592.202.54
No. of Analysts 11101212
Low Estimate 0.490.572.172.25
High Estimate 0.560.622.262.68
Year Ago EPS 0.360.521.672.20

Revenue EstCurrent Qtr
Sep-06
Next Qtr
Dec-06
Current Year
Dec-06
Next Year
Dec-07
Avg. Estimate 2.37B2.47B9.59B10.26B
No. of Analysts 4487
Low Estimate 2.34B2.43B9.50B10.05B
High Estimate 2.40B2.50B9.70B10.40B
Year Ago Sales 2.13BN/AN/A9.59B
Sales Growth (year/est) 11.3%N/AN/A7.0%

But it added that CSX's recent share price performance means there is less upside compared to others in the sector. Lehman Brothers added it expects Norfolk Southern to underperform other railroads

kein wunder das der dow auf neue höhen steurte. bei diesen charts die die rezession bereits eingepreist haben und trotzdem in 07 umsatz und zweistellige geinnzuwächse erwarten lassen.

no wonder that the dow in son his way to an ath. when the charts have priced in a recession scenario and corp. america can increase bottom and topline in a recession there is no reason the dow will hit 36.000 in the next 2 or three years in a deep recession.... :-)

jan-martin

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