Friday, August 25, 2006

rückblende / flashback

was für ein unterscheid doch ein jahr ausmachen kann. dank geht an mish!
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2006/08/dose-of-reality.html
hier ein auszug:



Toll Brothers April 18, 2005

But can this magical market really defy gravity much longer?

Shockingly, despite his paranoid questions and years of hardscrabble experience, Bob Toll's answer to that question is a resounding yes. For Toll, what looks to many people like pure craziness is perfectly normal, a reflection of a new supply-and-demand equation that will last a long time. He's an outspoken believer that, yes, the world really has changed this time. That the traditional boom-to-bust housing cycle is now a smooth upward climb. That housing prices will keep rocking practically, well, forever. "We'll reach the point Europe reached 20 years ago, where families pay 45% of their income on housing and married couples have to live with their parents for years before they can afford houses," he says. "Prices will keep going up in double digits for years." (seht euch den chart an/look at the chart, das war das top/this was the top)

Toll Brothers Aug 23, 2006

"It would be difficult to characterize the position of home builders as other than in a hard landing," says Robert Toll, chief executive of luxury home builder Toll Brothers Inc., which reported yesterday that net income fell 19% in the third quarter ended July 31.In his 40 years as a home builder, Mr. Toll says, he has never seen a slump unfold like the current one. "I've never seen a downturn in housing without a downturn in employment or... some macroeconomic nasty condition that took housing down along with other elements of the economy," he says. "This time, you've got low unemployment, you've got job creation, you've got a stable stock market and relatively low interest rates."

gruß

jan-martin

disclosure: short toll

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