Wednesday, February 16, 2011

Herding, Risk Appetite & Complacency Somewhat "Elevated".......

Just in time after the fastest 100 percent run of the S&P 500 ever....From a risk/reward standpoint this should at least raise some eyebrows......Especially when you add things like "Rally Intensity", margin pressure, geopolitical "instability", "poor" balance sheet quality, Korean bank runs, "Covenant Lite Flashback 2007, "surreal" trading records, a not so pleasant "Misery Index" ( Unemployment & CPI ), persistant "Buy The Dip" Mentality & an überbullish Biriny into the mix....The term "razor-thin margin of error" is probably not an overstatement..... And i havn´t even mentioned the "almost forgotten" ( sovereign ) debt crises.... I assume the markets will at the latest be "tested" when there are hints that "QE 3.0" will be temporarily off the table......Just as a reminder...QE 2.0 "Run Rate " right now : $3.3 billion per day ($2.3 million every minute) & movements in the Fed’s balance sheet in the last 14 months have had an 86% correlation with the S&P 500 ( David Rosenberg ).... The "Run Rate" number is taken from the latest must read Kyle Bass / Hayman Capital Management investor letter

All das fast auf den Tag genau nach einer Verdopplung des S&P 500....Nebenbei bemerkt im kürzesten jemals gemessenen Zeitraum.....Unter Chance/Risikogesichtspunkten haben die Ergebnisse historisch gesehen eher selten eine "stressfreie" Zeit signalisiert....Wenn man weitere Eckpunkte wie z.B. "Rally Intensität", Margendruck, geopolitische Instabilität, Koreanische "Bank Runs", ultralockere Finanzierungsbedingungen, euphorische Analysten, "surreal" anmutende Handelsergebnisse, einen wenig erfreulichen "Misery Index" ( Arbeitslosigkeit & Konsumentenpreisinflation ), extrem hartnäckige "Buy The Dip" Mentalität & "fragwürdige" Bilanzierungsmethoden zum Gesamtbild hinzufügt, dürfte klar sein, das "das Eis nicht gerade dicker geworden ist"......Das "fast vergessene" Thema (Staats)Schuldenkrise will ich nur am Rande erwähnen...... Die "Widerstandsfähigkeit" dürfte allerspätestens ( dann aber "ernsthaft" ) getestet werden, wenn es erste Signale gibt, das "QE 3.0" zumindest für ein kurzes Zeitfenster nicht auf der Tagesordnung steht.....Man muss sich immer wieder aufs Neue vergegenwärtigen das alleine die FED/Bernanke seit Monaten (und noch bis Juni) im Schnitt umgerechnet tagtäglich $3.3 Mrd ($2.3 Millionen jede Minute ) in die Märkte pumpt & lt. David Rosenberg sich der S&P 500 in den letzten 14 Monaten mit einer Korrelation von satten 86% analog zur Bilanzsumme der US Notenbank entwickelt hat....In diesem Zusammenhang komme ich nicht darum hin auf den wirklich lesenswerten Kyle Bass / Haymann Capital Management Investorenbrief zu verweisen.....Danach dürfte selbst die rosaroteste Brille zumindest einen kleinen Spliss davon getragen haben.....


Net Overweight Equities via FAZ



Raging bulls FT Alphaville
And the overwhelming theme of the latest BofA Merrill Lynch fund managers survey is…

Complacency.

From record equity and commodity overweights…

Asset allocation is straightforward and extreme: equity surges to a record O/W of 67%; commodities also at record O/W of 28%; bond allocation tumbles to -66%, lowest since April’06 and close to a record low.

The February FMS is one of the most bullish in years. Institutions have record equity and commodity overweights, very low cash levels and the strongest risk appetite since Jan‘06.

The FMS Risk Appetite Index rose to its highest level (47) since Jan‘06. Hedge fund net exposure rose to 39%, highest since July’07. Cash balances fell from 3.7% to 3.5%, triggering our FMS cash trading rule equity sell signal

Net Overweight Cash via FAZ



Fondsmanager sind rekordoptimistisch FAZ

Fondsmanager sind äußerst optimistisch. Noch nie hatten so viele von ihnen Aktien in ihren Depots übergewichtet, seit die Frage bei der Umfrage von BofA Merrill Lynch im April des Jahres 2001 zum ersten Mal gestellt wurde.

67 Prozent von ihnen haben Aktien in ihren Depots, so das Ergebnis der Februarausgabe der einmal monatlich stattfindenden Umfrage von BofA Merrill Lynch unter 188 Fondsmanagern weltweit. Das ist der höchste Stand, seit die Frage im April des Jahres 2001 in dieser Form zum ersten Mal gestellt wurde.

Noch im Januar hatte dieser Anteil lediglich 55 Prozent betragen und im Dezember des vergangenen Jahres sogar nur 40 Prozent.

Währen der „Aktienoptimismus“ immer extremer wird, werden die Anleihen immer unbeliebter. 66 Prozent der Fondsmanager haben sie untergewichtet, nach 54 Prozent im Januar und 47 Prozent im Dezember. Die Differenz zwischen jenen, die Aktien über- und Anleihen untergewichtet haben, ist so groß wie noch nie zuvor im Rahmen der Befragung.

Merrill Finds That Money Manager Confidence In Stocks At All Time Record High ZH

Couldn´t resist ( Page 17 )....... ;-)

Kann mir diesen Hinweis ( Seite 17 ) einfach nicht verkneifen..... ;-)

GOLD VALUATION :

FMS respondents remain firmly outside of the GOLD fan club with panellists seeing the metal as overvalued for much of the past 3 years.

February’s reading of net 31% overvalued is little changed from a record reading of a net 33% last month.
Not quite the definition of "ALL IN"..... Reassuring to see that at least since 2008 it seems almost nobody of the so called "Smart Money" has read the Special Gold Report "In Gold We Trust"....

Nicht gerade die Definition von "ALL IN"....... Beruhigend zu sehen das seit 2008 anscheinend immer noch sehr wenige der Fondsmanager einen Blick in den Special Gold Report "In Gold We Trust" geworfen haben....

Sentiment & Herding UPDATE via David Rosenberg ( see Blogroll )
The latest investment surveys show 52% bulls and a mere 13% bears. We heard anecdotally that at the ISI conference, the widespread majority believed new highs were coming for equity valuations, bonds were the most detested asset class, and that inflation was going to rip.

One person who attended told us that he had never before been to an event when the consensus was so one-sided, and that says a lot when you consider all the tech conferences being held in 1999 and 2000.

Reading a Bloomberg news story this morning, we were reminded that you have to go back 40 years to see the last time the U.S. stock market surged as much as it has in the past six months with such little volatility and opportunities to buy on dips along the way. In other words, this is not a normal market by any means,having been a virtual straight line up ever since Mr. Bernanke announced QE2 in late August.

And the same institution that conducted the survey above also just published a report concluding that the Shiller cyclically-adjusted P/E ratio is a relic and not to be relied upon as a valuation tool — perhaps because it is now suggesting that the market is 30% more expensive relative to historical norms.

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Anonymous Anonymous said...

I would like to thank you for the efforts you have made in writing this article. I am hoping the same best work from you in the future as well.A year ago, Wall Street was giddy and called for a strong up year for stocks. I was also in that camp, but thought technology and small-cap stocks would be the market drivers. More about Stock Market Price

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Dieses spannende und engagierte Buch gibt nicht nur verunsicherten Anlegern Antworten. Es zeigt auf, welche Kapitalanlagen jetzt noch sinnvoll sind, und von welchen nur die Finanzindustrie profitiert. Schon die nächsten Monate könnten für das finanzielle Schicksal von Staaten und deren Bürgern entscheidend sein. Auch Sie sind betroffen: Wer jetzt nicht richtig handelt, steht vielleicht bald mit leeren Händen da.

Doch jede Krise hat auch ihre Chance. Sorgen Sie dafür, dass Sie nicht zu den Verlierern gehören!

Weitere Informationen zum Buch finden Sie auf der Webseite des Tectum-Verlags

Dieses Buch war am Dienstag, 3. Juli Thema in der ZDF-Sendung "Pelzig hält sich" im Gespräch mit Gast Prof. Dr. Harald Lesch Thema. (zdf.de)

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