Herding, Risk Appetite & Complacency Somewhat "Elevated".......
All das fast auf den Tag genau nach einer Verdopplung des S&P 500....Nebenbei bemerkt im kürzesten jemals gemessenen Zeitraum.....Unter Chance/Risikogesichtspunkten haben die Ergebnisse historisch gesehen eher selten eine "stressfreie" Zeit signalisiert....Wenn man weitere Eckpunkte wie z.B. "Rally Intensität", Margendruck, geopolitische Instabilität, Koreanische "Bank Runs", ultralockere Finanzierungsbedingungen, euphorische Analysten, "surreal" anmutende Handelsergebnisse, einen wenig erfreulichen "Misery Index" ( Arbeitslosigkeit & Konsumentenpreisinflation ), extrem hartnäckige "Buy The Dip" Mentalität & "fragwürdige" Bilanzierungsmethoden zum Gesamtbild hinzufügt, dürfte klar sein, das "das Eis nicht gerade dicker geworden ist"......Das "fast vergessene" Thema (Staats)Schuldenkrise will ich nur am Rande erwähnen...... Die "Widerstandsfähigkeit" dürfte allerspätestens ( dann aber "ernsthaft" ) getestet werden, wenn es erste Signale gibt, das "QE 3.0" zumindest für ein kurzes Zeitfenster nicht auf der Tagesordnung steht.....Man muss sich immer wieder aufs Neue vergegenwärtigen das alleine die FED/Bernanke seit Monaten (und noch bis Juni) im Schnitt umgerechnet tagtäglich $3.3 Mrd ($2.3 Millionen jede Minute ) in die Märkte pumpt & lt. David Rosenberg sich der S&P 500 in den letzten 14 Monaten mit einer Korrelation von satten 86% analog zur Bilanzsumme der US Notenbank entwickelt hat....In diesem Zusammenhang komme ich nicht darum hin auf den wirklich lesenswerten Kyle Bass / Haymann Capital Management Investorenbrief zu verweisen.....Danach dürfte selbst die rosaroteste Brille zumindest einen kleinen Spliss davon getragen haben.....

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And the overwhelming theme of the latest BofA Merrill Lynch fund managers survey is…
Complacency.
From record equity and commodity overweights…
Asset allocation is straightforward and extreme: equity surges to a record O/W of 67%; commodities also at record O/W of 28%; bond allocation tumbles to -66%, lowest since April’06 and close to a record low.
The February FMS is one of the most bullish in years. Institutions have record equity and commodity overweights, very low cash levels and the strongest risk appetite since Jan‘06.
The FMS Risk Appetite Index rose to its highest level (47) since Jan‘06. Hedge fund net exposure rose to 39%, highest since July’07. Cash balances fell from 3.7% to 3.5%, triggering our FMS cash trading rule equity sell signal
Net Overweight Cash via FAZ

Fondsmanager sind rekordoptimistisch FAZ
Fondsmanager sind äußerst optimistisch. Noch nie hatten so viele von ihnen Aktien in ihren Depots übergewichtet, seit die Frage bei der Umfrage von BofA Merrill Lynch im April des Jahres 2001 zum ersten Mal gestellt wurde.
Währen der „Aktienoptimismus“ immer extremer wird, werden die Anleihen immer unbeliebter. 66 Prozent der Fondsmanager haben sie untergewichtet, nach 54 Prozent im Januar und 47 Prozent im Dezember. Die Differenz zwischen jenen, die Aktien über- und Anleihen untergewichtet haben, ist so groß wie noch nie zuvor im Rahmen der Befragung.
67 Prozent von ihnen haben Aktien in ihren Depots, so das Ergebnis der Februarausgabe der einmal monatlich stattfindenden Umfrage von BofA Merrill Lynch unter 188 Fondsmanagern weltweit. Das ist der höchste Stand, seit die Frage im April des Jahres 2001 in dieser Form zum ersten Mal gestellt wurde.
Noch im Januar hatte dieser Anteil lediglich 55 Prozent betragen und im Dezember des vergangenen Jahres sogar nur 40 Prozent.
Merrill Finds That Money Manager Confidence In Stocks At All Time Record High ZH
Couldn´t resist ( Page 17 )....... ;-)
Kann mir diesen Hinweis ( Seite 17 ) einfach nicht verkneifen..... ;-)
GOLD VALUATION :Not quite the definition of "ALL IN"..... Reassuring to see that at least since 2008 it seems almost nobody of the so called "Smart Money" has read the Special Gold Report "In Gold We Trust"....
FMS respondents remain firmly outside of the GOLD fan club with panellists seeing the metal as overvalued for much of the past 3 years.
February’s reading of net 31% overvalued is little changed from a record reading of a net 33% last month.
Nicht gerade die Definition von "ALL IN"....... Beruhigend zu sehen das seit 2008 anscheinend immer noch sehr wenige der Fondsmanager einen Blick in den Special Gold Report "In Gold We Trust" geworfen haben....
Sentiment & Herding UPDATE via David Rosenberg ( see Blogroll )
The latest investment surveys show 52% bulls and a mere 13% bears. We heard anecdotally that at the ISI conference, the widespread majority believed new highs were coming for equity valuations, bonds were the most detested asset class, and that inflation was going to rip.
One person who attended told us that he had never before been to an event when the consensus was so one-sided, and that says a lot when you consider all the tech conferences being held in 1999 and 2000.
Reading a Bloomberg news story this morning, we were reminded that you have to go back 40 years to see the last time the U.S. stock market surged as much as it has in the past six months with such little volatility and opportunities to buy on dips along the way. In other words, this is not a normal market by any means,having been a virtual straight line up ever since Mr. Bernanke announced QE2 in late August.
And the same institution that conducted the survey above also just published a report concluding that the Shiller cyclically-adjusted P/E ratio is a relic and not to be relied upon as a valuation tool — perhaps because it is now suggesting that the market is 30% more expensive relative to historical norms.
Labels: complacency, contrary indicator, herding, investor sentiment, risk taking
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I would like to thank you for the efforts you have made in writing this article. I am hoping the same best work from you in the future as well.A year ago, Wall Street was giddy and called for a strong up year for stocks. I was also in that camp, but thought technology and small-cap stocks would be the market drivers. More about Stock Market Price
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Noch da JMF? Alles OK?
Time for a dip maybe - but still bullish longer-term...
Be careful, this close to disaster.
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Buchempfehlung: Der größte Raubzug der Geschichte
Warum die Fleißigen immer ärmer und die Reichen immer reicher werden
Herzlich Wikommen auf einer spannenden Reise in die Welt des Wahnsinns, der Lügen, des Betrugs und der größten Kapitalvernichtung, die die Menschheit je erlebt hat. Vor unseren Augen findet der größte Raubzug der Geschichte statt, und wir alle sind seine Opfer. Die Reichen in unserer Gesellschaft werden immer reicher, während alle Anderen immer ärmer werden. Die Autoren fragen:
Wie entsteht überhaupt Geld? Wie kommen Banken und Staat eigentlich zu Geld?
Warum ist das globale Finanzsystem ungerecht?
Tragen tatsächlich nur die Banken die Schuld an der aktuellen Misere oder müssen auch die politischen Entscheider zur Verantwortung gezogen werden?
Warum steht das größte Finanz-Casino der Welt in Deutschland, und kaum jemand weiß darüber Bescheid?
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Sind Lebens-, Rentenversicherungen, Bausparverträge und Staatsanleihen noch zeitgemäße Investments?
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Was bedeutet es, wenn ein Staat Bankrott geht?
Wer profitiert eigentlich von den Schulden unseres Staates?
Kann ewiges Wachstum überhaupt funktionieren?
Dieses spannende und engagierte Buch gibt nicht nur verunsicherten Anlegern Antworten. Es zeigt auf, welche Kapitalanlagen jetzt noch sinnvoll sind, und von welchen nur die Finanzindustrie profitiert. Schon die nächsten Monate könnten für das finanzielle Schicksal von Staaten und deren Bürgern entscheidend sein. Auch Sie sind betroffen: Wer jetzt nicht richtig handelt, steht vielleicht bald mit leeren Händen da.
Doch jede Krise hat auch ihre Chance. Sorgen Sie dafür, dass Sie nicht zu den Verlierern gehören!
Weitere Informationen zum Buch finden Sie auf der Webseite des Tectum-Verlags
Dieses Buch war am Dienstag, 3. Juli Thema in der ZDF-Sendung "Pelzig hält sich" im Gespräch mit Gast Prof. Dr. Harald Lesch Thema. (zdf.de)
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According to Intuit, Error Code -6000, -83: “An error occurred when QuickBooks tried to access the company file” has multiple possible causes: an unfinished QuickBooks installation. a broken company (.qbw) file. the folder in which the company file is located is corrupted. Under such severe situations, contacting QuickBooks Technical Support Phone Number at 1888-323-1555 is the profitable decision one should think of.
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The widespread popularity of QuickBooks software means that common issues and errors get wide attention. One of the most common software errors QuickBooks users face is the “Invalid Product Number” error, often along with an error code “176109”for more info visit here : QuickBooks invalid product number
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QuickBooks Error: Cannot communicate with the company file due to firewall is usually caused by Connection to the server has been lost or the server is not set up properly.and QuickBooks Database Server Manager is not running on the server.for moreinformation visit here :quickbooks cannot communicate with the company file
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QuickBooks Error: Cannot communicate with the company file due to firewall is usually caused by Connection to the server has been lost or the server is not set up properly.and QuickBooks Database Server Manager is not running on the server.for moreinformation visit here : quickbooks cannot communicate with the company file
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Does Intuit Data Protect work with all versions of QuickBooks Desktop? How is QuickBooks Online Backup different from Intuit Data Protect?Intuit Data Protect (IDP) is a subscription service that backs up your files to protect them from loss or damage. ... From QuickBooks, go to the File menu, then select Back Up Company > Set Up/Activate Online Backup. ... From the System Tray, right-click the IDP .for moreinformation visit here: Intuit Data Protect.
Does Intuit Data Protect work with all versions of QuickBooks Desktop? How is QuickBooks Online Backup different from Intuit Data Protect?Intuit Data Protect (IDP) is a subscription service that backs up your files to protect them from loss or damage. ... From QuickBooks, go to the File menu, then select Back Up Company > Set Up/Activate Online Backup. ... From the System Tray, right-click the IDP .for moreinformation visit here: Intuit Data Protect.
Have you encountered any issue with your QuickBooks accounting software? If yes, then you don’t need to get tensed about the problem get 24/7 round the clock QuickBooks tech support and nullify the hindrance.for more info : QuickBooks Technical Support Phone Number
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