Sunday, March 04, 2007

When It Comes to House Prices, the Bloom Is Off the Cactus / NYT

how anybody couldn´t see there was a bubble is one of the great mysteries of the past decade........

wioe man beim betrachten dieser chart die blase nicht sehen will oder immer noch nicht erkennen konnte gehört wohl zu den großen geheimnissen der letzten jahre.....

Changes in Home Prices, by Region

here comes the king of forcasters: michael youngblood (from mid 2006!)

Housing prices will rise in each of the next four quarters, but by progressively slower rates year over year: 7.1% in 2Q 2006; 5.7% in 3Q 2006; 4.4% in 4Q 2006 and 3.5% in 1Q 2007.

• MSAs with fastest year-over-year gains in 1Q 2006 will continue to rise. Those cities include Phoenix, Az (34% expected rise in 1Q 2007) and Naples, Fla. (51% expected rise in 1Q 2007).

California market will have continued rising house prices with a median year-over-year rate of 24.1% in 1Q 2007.

• Ten of the largest MSAs will continue to rises in housing prices: 17.5% in New York City; 26.7% in Los Angeles, Ca.; 4.9% in Chicago; 3.9% in Houston; and 4.8% in Atlanta, Ga.•

House prices will fall in increasingly numbers of MSAs: four in 2Q 2006; 10 in 3Q 2006; 28 in 4Q 2006 and 24 in 1Q 2007 where they should fall by a median of 1.3% year over year. Of those 24 MSAs, 17 are located in the rust belt, cotton belt and farm belt.

• Only five of the largest 100 MSAs (St Louis, Mo., Pittsburg, Columbia, SC, Little Rock, Charleston, SC) will see a fall in housing prices year over year in 1Q 2007.

good call michael.........

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