Wednesday, February 11, 2009

Geithner Summary In 30 Seconds.....

I have to admit that even i ( already with ultralow expectations ) was shocked at the poor performance from Geithner. Here is a good summary ( see Geithner Plan Smackdown Wrap ) as usual via Naked Capitalism & The Geithner plan — what the pundits say including some quite "funny quotes" via FT Alphaville. Make also sure you don´t miss Save Us, Jim Cramer, You're Our Only Hope! from Henry Blodget via Clusterstock :-)

Ich muß gestehen das sogar ich ( hatte eh schon fast nicht messbare Erwartungen ) ziemlich geschockt von dem gewesen bin was Geithner da gestern veranstaltet hat. Eine treffende Bestandsaufnahme wie erbärmlich die gestrige Performmnace gewesen ist verweise ich mal wieder an Naked Capitalism ( siehe Geithner Plan Smackdown Wrap ) & The Geithner plan — what the pundits say mit einigen sehr "amüsanten" Zitaten via FT Alphaville. Denke das sich zudem ein Blick auf Save Us, Jim Cramer, You're Our Only Hope! von Henry Blodget via Clusterstock lohnt :-)

Hat tip iTulip

He doesn´t look confident at the end of his first major speech, doesn´t he..... ?

Er strahlt nicht gerade Zuversicht am Ende der Rede aus, oder....?


Hat tip FT via Naked Capitalism

On the other it is probably not the worst sign that bank stocks have tanked yesterday ( part was profit taking / sell the news ) . This might indicate that the high hopes from Wall Street for their "cash for trash" bet is at least "postponed". But this is really giving only a cold comfort..... Also disappointing ( but not unexpected ) to see that Obama ( see Obama on Bank Nationalization via Paul Kedrosky ) is still far underperforming the promise of "change"....... This is even more troubling because it seems he is offering the correct diagnosis but has not the guts for the necessary action ( see comment from Option Armageddon)

Auf der anderen Seite sind die fallenden Bankaktien ( teilweise sicher auch Gewinnmitnahmen bzw buy the rumor, sell the fact...) ein Indiz dafür das die Hoffnungen von Wall Street auf eine massive Überbezahlung Ihrer Schrottpapiere so zumindest nicht kurzfristig aufgeht. Aber das kann natürlich nur ein schwacher Trost dafür sein das erneut wertvolle Zeit ins Land geht und sich immer mehr die Erkenntnis durchsetzt das selbst nach einem Jahr immer noch vollkommen planlos ( das ganze wird nur noch dadurch getoppt das immer noch bewußt die alten Lösungen die bisher nicht funktioniert haben bevorzugt werden - siehe Cartoon & Obama on Bank Nationalization via Paul Kedrosky) agiert wird. Die ganze Geschichte wird umso ärgerlicher wenn man bedenkt das Obama das Problem wohl erkannt hat, Ihm aber offensichtlich der Mumm fehlt das Notwendige zu veranlassen ( siehe Kommentar von Option Armageddon )

More fun with John Steward....

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Blogger jmf said...

The Dangers of Fed/Treasury Cooperation

4:26 AM  
Anonymous Tom I said...

I think (but cannot confirm) Geithner is a lot smarter man than the one yesterday.

There is, nor will there be, a Geithner strategy for the banks. But there will be an Obama & White House strategy that Geithner may announce and to implement.

The White House has already decided to wipe out the zombie banks over Geithner objection. The issues are politics, public optics, blowback from Wall Street, and the actual mechanisms. These have to be done carefully, in stages, and the WH has to be seen as being 'forced' into making such a radial move.

Step 1 is to play fussy, hard-to-catch, struggling. That was what Geithner did yesterday. Wall Street will be in uproar over no easy bailout, while the rest of the country and pundits will demand 'kill the zombie bank' approach. Geithner already opened the can by offering to 'stress test' the banks. That's a code word for wiping out the zombies. Already, Obama gave an interview with this coded fine words "Wall Street is looking for an easy way out. There is no easy way out."

Step 2 is to put those clowns in front of Congress and convince the public they should be shot. Everybody will agree.

Step 3 is to announce a voluntary 'stress test' plan. Meaning those who don't volunteer are either healthy or should jump into receivership. Those who dare to volunteer will be restructured with public money and put into adult supervision.

In short, nationalization American style is coming. But playing this game is so much fun!

4:02 PM  
Blogger jmf said...

moin Tom,

i hope you are right.

But i have my doubts.

"Stresstest" out of Geithners mouth for me is just another "black box" model to avoid the necessary nationalization.

There is still no talk of a debt for equity swap from all the bondholders......

As long as this is not on the table it is very easy to see that they are not serious about "protecting the taxpayer".....

9:30 PM  
Blogger jmf said...

Toxic Assets: Sellers Holding Out for Government Deal?

One consequence of the ever-delayed "buy the bad assets" program, which clearly has to pay at or above banks' current marks (otherwise they show losses, which hurts their capital bases, something that the Fed/Treasury team is keen to avoid) is that banks have no incentive to unload that paper now. They might as well wait to see what the sugar daddy from Washington has to offer.

via Naked Capitalism

10:10 PM  

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