Wednesday, February 06, 2008

Chapeau! Deutsche Bank Has Manage To Avoid The Torpedoes

It is not often that i write something positive about banks. But you gotta give Deutsche credit for navigating through this tough environment. And reporting "only" write downs from $ 2.3 billion in 2007 is quite an achievement..... Especially when you look how their Peer Group have done so far......Lets hope that they are not "too good to be true"...... That their guidance is probably way too optimistic and the credit books is still loaded with tons of problems is subject to another post

Es geschieht wirklich nicht oft das ich etwas positives in Sachen Banken zu bloggen habe. Aber ich denke im Falle der Deutschen Bank ist das durchaus angebracht. Wenn man als eine der Top Investmentbanken für das gesamte Jahr 2007 lediglich 2,3 Mrd $ als Abschreibung zu verbuchen hat und das mit den Summen der Peer Group vergleicht erkennt man recht schnell wie gut Ackermann´s Bänker sich geschlagen haben..... Bleibt zu hoffen das die Zahlen nicht "Too Good To Be True" sind.......Das der Ausblick immer noch viel zu optimistisch und das Kreditbuch trotz allem mit Problemen beladen ist soll uns heute nicht weiter beschäftigen....Diese Thematik kommt sicher noch früh genug.....

Deutsche Bank reports net income of EUR 6.5 billion, up 7%, for the year 2007

“In the fourth quarter, we again demonstrated the quality of our risk management. We had no net write-downs related to sub-prime, CDO or RMBS exposures. Those trading businesses in which we reported losses in the third quarter produced a positive result in the fourth quarter. In leveraged finance, where we had significant write-downs in the third quarter, net write-downs in the fourth quarter were less than EUR 50 million.”

Unfortuantely both presentations from the analysts call fail to provide much further details on how they have to manage to avoid the losses.
Leider vermögen es auch die beiden Präsentationen von der Analystenkonferenz nicht mehr Lcht ins dunkel zu bringen wie genau die Deutsche Bank es geschafft hat so gut abzuschneiden.

Presentation CEO

Presentation CFO
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Anonymous eh said...


Personally, I do not 100% trust Deutsche Bank (and I'm a customer!). IMO they are one of the banks that is less likely to be, uhh, forthcoming. They are the bank in Deutschland, and are at the same time both arrogant and nervous about their position. Remember: UBS is being investigated for not marking to market. I can imagine Deutsche Bank doing the same thing, and for more or less the same reasons: not wanting to look bad to their many high worth clients, who pay premium fees I'm sure.

Infineon Reports First-Quarter Loss on Qimonda Unit

Infineon Technologies AG, Europe's second-biggest semiconductor maker, reported a fourth straight loss after prices tumbled at its memory-chip unit Qimonda AG...Infineon's sales dropped 25 percent to 1.6 billion euros...Infineon reduced its forecast for sales growth this year, saying it anticipates revenue will expand by a "high single- digit" percentage excluding Qimonda..."You can only hope that the Qimonda loss will be lower this quarter," Michael Busse, an analyst at Landesbank Baden-Wuerttemberg with a "buy" rating on Infineon shares, said...

Ja, wir können/sollen (nur) hoffen. After all, es gibt hier kein Trend. These idiot analysts.

11:46 PM  
Blogger jmf said...

Moin Eh,

i don´t like Deutsche either.

It would be just stupid to hide any losses right now.

I think the market had already expected some very bad things to come out. Especially after the news from UBS & Co. This would have been a "golden opportunity" to bring on the bad stuff.

If they really did hide anything they deserve to get punished.....

I´ll probably post an update after the call

12:00 AM  
Blogger jmf said...

"These idiot analysts"

They are proving it on a daily basis .....

12:06 AM  
Blogger jmf said...

MBIA to Sell $750 Million in New Shares, Increase Loss Reserves

In a sign of the doubts surrounding MBIA, Warburg Pincus is having to backstop the planned sale of preferred stock. This is reminiscent of a trader doubling down, a strategy far more likely to blow up than succeed.

Yves from Naked Capitalism is one again nailing it....

Pure desperation

3:29 AM  
Anonymous eh said...

The Bank of England's rate-setting committee has cut interest rates to 5.25% from 5.5% in an attempt to stimulate growth in the UK economy.

So far not much effect on the markets.

4:15 AM  
Blogger jmf said...

Mahlzeit Eh,

the only central bank that can move markets from now on is probably the ECB.

Only when they will go in the easing mode the markets will react.

Here comes another event that will impact profits and balance sheets from banks.....

A new monoline exposure for banks: CLO negative basis trades

4:20 AM  
Anonymous Barley said...

"Here comes another event that will impact profits and balance sheets from banks"

Maybe but I disagree it is the next shoew to fall. The next shoe will be counter party risks. Nobody that I know and nobody I have talked to understands the depth/width/breath of this.

This will be kinda like pulling a thread on a woven sweater. No end is apparent and all will be involved.

In my mind this will be the Archilles Heal that freezes everybody for weeks/months.

Spoke to one chap who could not fill an obligation on a sale until counters signed off. The paper would take 15-20 days. And this was a puny 13.5M. Stuck with a sale. No paper. No guarentees.

Friggen wierd.

And oh yea - dont trust Deutsche for the moment.

7:49 PM  
Blogger jmf said...

Moin Barley,

i agree with you that the counterparty risk will be the next shoe to drop.

Deutsche has almost no net exposure to the troubled segments out there. Thanks to hedges.....

Lets hope that their counterparty will stay solvent....

But nontheless i´m still willing to give them credit for being on the right side of the trade and not diluting shareholders with multibillion $ firesales like Citi, Merrill, UBS etc.....

What i find also interesting is the fact that it is a policy from Deutsche to take round about 10 percent from every CLO, CDO etc that they structure on their own book to signal that they have done their due dilligence.

I think compared to the rest of the "rat pack" they will outperform.

10:49 PM  
Blogger jmf said...

Cohrs, Jain Say `Nein' to `Sprechen Sie Deutsch?' Avoiding Loss

5:07 AM  

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