Sunday, December 02, 2007

Ben Stein vs Jan Hatzius

Who is this guy blaming Jan Hatzius, one of the very few that was from the beginning spot on, of fear mongering and to be a shill for Goldman to play their book. Even if his bearish view is good for Goldmans trading positions the thesis from Hatzius for the past years was so far one of the best out there. And i´m pretty sure if Goldman had listened to him from the beginning they would have done even better.......If they had listened to Ben Stein they already would be doing the "Citi"....... Too bad that we havn´t heard him complaining about the positive "spin" that we are facing on a daily basis.... But i fear he is really believing that his view is or was correct even if proven wrong numerous times..... And this defence comes from a guy that is for sure no friend of Goldman ... :-)

Was ist das für ein komischer Kautz der einen der wenigen wahren Experten der Wall Street als Panikmacher und Erfüllungsgehilfen von Goldman hinzustellen. Selbst wenn der negative Ausblick von Jan Hatzius möglicherweise bestimmte Positionen von Goldman unterstützt so hat er doch über die letzten Jahre bewisen das seine Trefferquote gigantisch ist und er für sich behaupten kann einer der wenigen gewesen zu sein die bereits seit Jahren auf das aktuelle Debakel hingewiesen haben. Hätte Goldman von Anfang an auf Hatzius gehört würden Sie wohl noch besser dastehen als jetz schon..... Hätten Sie auch nur eine Minute auf Stein gehört hätte Goldman wohl den "Citi" machen müssen.....Auch unglücklich das man von Stein nichts zu den rosarot gefärbten Prognosen zu hören bekommt die uns seit Jahren um die Ohren fliegen. Ich befürchte ernsthaft das Stein seine Thesen wirklich für voll nimmt obwohl Sie nun seit geraumer Zeit nicht einmal im Ansatz der Wahrheit entsprechen. Wie sehr mir der Typ auf den Senkel geht ergibt sich aus der Tatsache das ich mit Sicherheit kein Freund von Goldman bin..... :-)

The slump in global credit markets may force banks, brokerages and hedge funds to cut lending by $2 trillion and trigger a ``substantial recession'' in the U.S. ...

``The likely mortgage credit losses pose a significantly bigger macroeconomic risk than generally recognized,'' [Jan Hatzius, chief U.S. economist at Goldman] wrote. ``It is easy to see how such a shock could produce a substantial recession'' or ``a long period of very sluggish growth,'' he wrote.

Stein dissing Hatzius in the NYT "The Long and Short of It at Goldman Sachs "
Why, then, is his document circulating? Perhaps as a token of Dr. Hatzius’s genuine intelligence, which is fine. But to me, his paper seemed like a selling document in the real Wall Street sense of selling — namely, selling short

Here is my humble hypothesis, even after talking to Goldman: Is it possible that Dr. Hatzius’s paper was a device to help along the goal of success at bearish trades in this sector and in the market generally? His firm says his paper, like all of its economists’ work, was not written to support any larger short-trading strategy. But economists, like accountants, are artists. They have a tendency to paint what their patrons, who pay them, want to see.

Stein March 2007
This whole subprime mortgage mess is just an excuse for the gunslingers and river boat gamblers on Wall Street to use their tricks to move markets and make money. The economy is still very strong. The most cagey players on Wall Street like Goldman Sachs are now trying to buy — not sell — as much distressed merchandise in the mortgage area as they can. This is a good clue about where the smart money is going.

Stein in November after huge losses

I think the financials are cheap. If you can devote 10 years to waiting patiently, you may well be happy if you dip your toe into the financial services index, the XLF, right now.The mortgage crunch won't last forever. The commercial paper problems will end. And we'll always need banks. The best time to buy stocks is when everyone hates them, and that's where the financials are right now. So maybe buy a few dollars' worth of the XLF, don't look at it for 10 years, and then check in with me in 2017.

It is getting better. In this clip he is advising to buy buy financial stocks in mid August just before the latest tumble send the entire sector sharply lower.

Es kommt noch besser. In diesem Clip von Mitte August bläßt er zum großen Einstieg in die Finanzwerte. Genau passend bevor der letzte große Rutsch den gesamten Sektor zerrissen hat

If i´m a bit too harsh with the man who describes himslef also as an writer/actor/game show host or i have missed some of his good "calls" i aplogize. But i doubt that his glass is three quarter full mentality on this topic has lead to a good track record. But with Yves from Naked Capitalism, Doug Kass & Felix Salomon not so far of my initial thoughts i feel comfortable that i´m not far off the mark.

Sollte ich etwas zu hart mit dem Mann ins Gericht gehe der sich selbst auch als writer/actor/game show host beschreibt bzw ich auch einige seiner guten Vorhersagen verpaßt habe entschuldige ich mir auf diesem Wege gerne. Ich habe aber Zweifel ob die rosarote Sichtweise zu diesem Thema eine gute Trefferquote ermöglicht hat. Da auch Yves von Naked Capitalism , Felix Salomon & Doug Kass in großen Teilen mit mir übereinstimmt düfte Ben Stein nicht wirklich viel Sachverstand in Wirtschaftsfragen vorhalten

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Anonymous armholder said...

everybody (not really) knows who Ben Stein is...he is a voice behind one of the characters in kids' cartoons here in the US, he regularly plays lawyers (himself) in not-so-good movies and he gives out personal financial advise on US television. So, in a word, he's a true renaissance man. Kind of scary how he is catapulting himself from being a lawyer to a savior of the US financial system. and of all places, pointing fingers at GS and mentioning KGB and Vatican in the adjoining paragraphs and comparing economic research to yellow journalism. Obviously, there aren't too many people who know how KGB and Vatican operate, are there? but there are quite a few of those who criticize their own kind, because they are their own kind

3:48 AM  
Blogger jmf said...

Thanks Armholder,

that explains lots of his "unique" economic views... :-)

3:55 AM  
Blogger Edgar said...

I wonder how much money GS screwed Ben Stein out of? Anyone who does business w/ GS is an idiot. Case closed.

8:44 AM  
Anonymous dedfool said...

Anyone have a link to the referenced Hatzius study?

1:05 PM  
Blogger jmf said...

Moin Dedfool,

unfortunately not.

Krugman: 15% House Price Decline "Implausible"

For what it’s worth, Goldman’s forecast of a 15 percent decline in home prices seems implausible to me, too — but on the low side. A 15 percent decline would bring prices back to their level in early 2005 — when the bubble was already well inflated. If prices fall back to their level in early 2003, that’s a 30 percent decline.

12:43 AM  

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