Thursday, May 24, 2007

Employment Numbers "Can´t Truss It" / Minyanville

click on the labels to read more about the bogus numbers.......and click on the headline to read the 4 other things you need to know.

mehr zu den unfassbaren ermittlungsmethoden des us arbeitministeriums unter den labeln...klickt bitte auf die überschrift um mehr von minyanville zu lesen.

Can't Truss It
So here's a song to the strong 'bout a shake of a snake, and the smile went along wit dat, can't truss it, according to Public Enemy and (finally!) the Wall Street Journal this morning.
  • All the way back in 1991 Chuck D warned us that we can't truss it.

  • Now, 16 years later, the Wall Street Journal is wondering if Chuck D was right.
    How is it, the Journal asks, that job growth remains robust even as the economy has slowed, especially relative to the housing industry?

  • Housing starts in April fell 33% from their recent peak in January 2006, the Journal notes, yet the number of residential-construction jobs has dropped by only about 3% over the same period.

  • After surveying a handful of economists, the Journal concludes that this must be because 1) layoffs have lagged the housing slump and the worst is yet to come, 2) the Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics is overestimating employment, or 3) the BLS isn't registering job losses by illegal immigrants.

  • Well bass in our face! Can't truss it.

  • Like Chuck D we got a story that's harder than hardcore and one that, as incredible as it is to believe, wasn't even mentioned in the Journal story.

  • The BLS's use of the Birth/Death model. Can't truss it.
    How a story about the economy slowing in the face of "robust job growth" can not mention even once the Birth/Death model is beyond us, but what are you gonna do? Ya can't truss it.

  • U.S. job growth in April slowed to 88,000, but you can't truss it, because the Birth/Death model contributed 317,000 adds to those 88,000 jobs.

  • Since the beginning of the year, the birth/death model has accounted for a net 388,000 jobs. Can't truss it.

  • Last year it added 964,000 jobs. Can't truss it.

  • We want to believe, of course.

  • But because the Bureau of Labor Statistics refuses to allow academics and commercial economists access to the models they use for the birth/death additions, we'll stick to our song to the strong 'bout a shake of a snake, and the smile went along wit dat, can't truss it.

maybe the bls should hire this crew....

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