Wednesday, April 11, 2007

Canada: Housing Trend Has Started to Chill / pdf

almost numbers like in the us.... but i think that fundamentals in canada are much better and the financing was not so suicidal in the past.

sieht fast wie in den usa aus.....ich denke aber das die fundamentaldaten in kanada wesentlich stärker sind und es in der vergangenheit nicht so selbtmörderische finanzierungen gegeben hat.


Housing starts rose 7.6% in March to an annual rate of 210,900 units, following a sharp 21.3% decline in February. On a year-over-year basis, first-quarter starts were down 10.5%.
Today’s figures corroborate last week’s building permit data which showed a 17.3% decline in February. The number of permits issued in February (195,300) was the lowest recorded rate since December 2001, and suggests that the market has yet to stabilize.

red line building permits authorized / rote linie baugenehmigungen
The latest data are consistent with the consensus view that the Canadian housing market will cool in 2007 as past rate hikes and higher prices begin to affect demand. The booming housing market has been a key driver of economic growth in recent years and has acted as a major contributor to inflation (housing-related costs account for more than a quarter of the CPI basket).

Amid a strong employment environment and with still-favorable interest rates, the Canadian housing market is likely to gradually correct itself throughout 2007, escaping the sharper pitfalls of its southern neighbor. Should the slowdown prove sharper than expected, however, we maintain our view that ample room remains for interest rate cuts.

>have heard this in the us back in 2005.../ dasselbe hat man auch 2005 aus den usa gehört...

if anybody knows a good canadian bubble blog please leave the link in the comments or email me.

update: please check the comments. some canada links including good charts.

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4 Comments:

Blogger M- said...

Housing bubble blogs for Vancouver, BC:

Langley Financial Planning
(I'm a contributor-- see some graphs here)

Vancouver Condo Info

Now-defunct: Vancouver Housing Market

11:15 PM  
Blogger jmf said...

thanks.

12:00 AM  
Anonymous ProudPappa said...

Schoene gruesse aus Kanada! Found you through Bill's site. I live in Edmonton, Alberta and had come across a bubble blog for this specific city:

http://www.edmontonrealestateblog.com/my_weblog/

Quick stats:

Average residential price increase YoY in March: 47.8%

Prices up 72% since January 2006

A friend put his house on the market Monday morning, had 3 viewings that day and two bids at night, sold for $10K over asking. This was 3 weeks ago.

Bought my house 5 years ago for $150K, surely would sell for $500K now. But alas, property taxes have gone up 15%/year as well :(

I suppose as long as oil is above $50/barrel, oil sands investments will continue and keep the pressure on housing, but it's getting to the point where wages have some serious catching up to do.

9:00 PM  
Blogger jmf said...

wow!

amazing!

like in some parts of the us in 2004...

3:25 AM  

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