Saturday, October 28, 2006

even the 1.6 gdp is overstatet !

so sieht also unter anderem die wirtschaft aus die angeblich immer noch "stark" ist. zumindest wenn man 99% an wallstreet und 90% aller medien auch in unserem land glauben mag. abseits der "spin"versuche ist die lage fast überall dramatisch.

vergleicht bitte mal diesen bericht mit den schlagzeilen der letzten wochen aus allen medien und stellt diese gegenüber. ich probiere das in diesem blog in erster linie bei den us immobilienstatistiken. ich kann euch aber versichern das diese "hurra"meldungen spätestens nach der 2 nicht mehr beachteten revision alle regelmäßig schlechter ausfallen (mal ganz abgesehen von den teilweise recht zweifelhaften erhebungsmethoden).

compare this news with all the spin that you hear and read from 99% of wall street and 90% of the media.
beneath the spinning the reality on main street is ugly.


U.S. Data Fluke Exaggerated Growth, Will Be Reversed http://tinyurl.com/y4gtlp

Oct. 27 (Bloomberg) -- An unexpected increase in auto production last quarter was a statistical fluke that will be reversed, making current U.S. economic growth even weaker, according to a former Commerce Department economist.

Last quarter's annualized 26 percent increase in motor vehicle production shocked Joe Carson, now director of economic research at AllianceBernstein LP in New York. Without the gain, the economy would have grown at an annual rate of 0.9 percent, not the 1.6 percent the Commerce Department reported today.

The reported increase in output came despite cutbacks announced by General Motors Corp., Ford Motor Co. and others. A drop in the wholesale price of SUVs and light trucks as the automakers cleared leftover 2006 models made production look stronger than it actually was, said Carson. The economic fallout from the auto-industry cutbacks will instead come this quarter, he said.

``Last quarter was weak even with the benefit of this mismatch and the fourth quarter will now also be weak because it's going the other way,'' Carson said. ``Whatever output you have this quarter, which will probably be down, will be discounted by a likely rebound in prices.'' .....

Growth Pessimism
Carson currently forecasts the U.S. economy will grow at an annual rate of 1.4 percent this quarter and said he wouldn't be surprised if growth came in at half that pace. .....

Carson wasn't the only economist shocked by the auto- production figures.

Stephen Stanley, chief economist at RBS Greenwich Capital in Greenwich, Connecticut, called the numbers ``the most unbelievable detail'' in the GDP report. .....

Composition of Growth
The composition of growth last quarter, which included an unexpectedly large accumulation of inventories, also prompted other economists to reduce estimates for fourth-quarter growth. An increase in inventories overall suggests manufacturers may need to trim production this quarter.

The economy will probably grow at an annual pace of 1 percent from October through December, ......

Ford, the second-biggest U.S. automaker, said car and light truck sales dropped 17 percent last quarter compared with the same period last year. The Dearborn, Michigan-based company cut third-quarter production by 11 percent, and plans to slash output by 21 percent this quarter (of course this news with e record loss and acounting errors back to 2002 pushed shares almost up 8%!/diese tollen news plus mrdverluste und bilanzierungsprobleme bis ins jahr 2002 haben die aktie 8% stiegen lassen.)

more on the gdp and housing
http://immobilienblasen.blogspot.com/2006/10/gdp-and-housing.html


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