Tuesday, September 14, 2010

Interesting Irish National Debt Stats......

Stunning....If you want to put a positive spin on it one can argue that there is a lot of room for improvement for the Irish to boost their share.... Of course only if the ECB is willing to slow down their ongoing buying "frenzy" ;-) For more charts click here

Positiv formuliert bleibt da für die Irischen Mitbürger, Banken und Versicherungen noch viel Luft nach oben.....Natürlich nur für den Fall das sich die EZB in den nächsten Jahren mit Ihren Käufen zurückhält....;-) Für mehr Charts in Sachen Irland und Staatsverschuldung bitte hier klicken....

Irish government debt needs you Barclays Capital’s Laurent Fransolet via FT Alphaville

In common with a number of other countries, one of the problems Ireland has faced is the limited domestic investor base for its debt. There is only limited data on who owns the Irish debt. On the domestic side, the Irish central bank has detailed data on holders… Only 15% of the debt is held domestically (the lowest proportion in the euro area), and domestic buyers have not stepped up their purchases recently, in contrast to a number of other euro area countries (eg, Spain, Portugal).

…Irish domestic banks own just €8.5bn of the debt, compared with balance sheets of about €700bn

Similarly, insurance companies and pension funds hold just €3-4bn of Irish government bonds, compared with total fixed income assets of €66bn. These low domestic holdings probably reflect the fact that for a long time, Irish debt was scarce and low yielding, and thus shunned by domestic investors. We think it also shows that in a way, there is potential for more domestic buying, even if these changes in investment policies can take time.

To have an idea of who owns this external debt, we utilise a number of sources. First, we take into account the ECB Securities Markets Programme buying (SMP): in total, about €61bn of Greek, Irish and Portuguese securities have been bought by the ECB. We believe the majority was Greek debt, with the rest slightly skewed in favour of Irish debt (say 15bn to 20bn).

Overall, we assume 30% of the ECB SMP buying has been in Irish debt (€18bn – the SMP likely makes the ECB the biggest single debt holder of Ireland, Portugal and Greece).

Read the last paragraph twice & ( even if i have to repeat myself over and over again ) the Joke Of The Day From ECB´s Smaghi "€ More Stable Than Deutsche Mark" is getting even more "funny".... ;-)

Lasst den letzten Absatz in aller Ruhe nocheinmal Revue passieren und (ich wiederhole mich da gerne) der Witz des Tages von Smaghi das der "€ stabiler als die DM ist" nur noch witziger... ;-)
Importantly… Ireland built up a lot of cash deposits in 2008, which it could run down more than €10bn if market access remains limited/too expensive. With monthly cash deficits of about €1.5bn, limited bills redemptions (€2.75bn in Q1 11) and no bond redemption until November 2011 (€4.4bn), Ireland is not under severe pressure to issue large amounts for meeting cash needs. As such, the NTMA confirmed on 9 September that Ireland was fully funded until next June, which is our assessment as well, if Ireland decided to run down its cash balances entirely (although we suspect it will want to keep some cash buffer to hand).
Put the € 18 billion ECB number since March 2010 into perspective with the monthly cash deficit of only € 1.5 billion.... All this in the name of "tightening the unrealistic high spreads vs BUNDS"...... Spin at its best....UPDATE: Irish banks' ECB loans rise to 95.1 bln euros

Die ganze Sache wird dadurch nicht weniger witzig wenn man die geschätzten 18 Mrd € die die EZB seit März 2010 aufgekauft hat ins Verhätltnis zu dem monatlichen Cash Defizit von 1,5 Mrd € setzt..... Und all das läuft noch immer unter dem Motto "die unrealistischen hohen Renditeaufschläge vs den BUNDS mit dem Marktbild der EU / Politiker / EZB in Einklang zu bringen "..... Mir würden da haufenweise treffendere Begriffe einfallen.... UPDATE: Irish banks' ECB loans rise to 95.1 bln euros

Got GOLD ? ;-)

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