Wednesday, April 15, 2009

Despite Massive Stimulus / Subsidies..... European Car Market Down 17.2% In First Quarter 2009

After the banking crisis now behind us ( sarcasm ) we can shift our focus to the real economy & the insurers ( see Unprecedented stress’ for US life insurers & Option Armageddon with some ugly insurance charts )......The numbers in 2010 will be fun to watch....... So far the European countries have provided more than € 10 billion ( € 5 billion from Germany / thanks to an upcoming election ) in direct cash incentives to support new vehicle sales ( on top of all the cheap state guaranteed financing for their lending arms ) ..... The UK will follow next week ( UPDATE: U.K. Budget Gives Drivers Cash to Scrap Old Cars for New Models ) .... To my knowledge the US has proposed a similar incentive for the 2nd half of 2009.... The spin attempt is more or less the same in every country ..... Because they are concerned about the environment... Biggest side effect is that the money spent on cars cannot be spend on other big ticket items like furnitures etc..... The auto lobbyist here in Europe are even more powerful than banking lobbyist... Respect!

Nachdem überall erklärt wird das die Bankenkrise hinter uns liegt ( Vorsicht Satire ) und wie durch Zauberhand Mrdgewinne generiert werden können wir uns jetzt ja ruhigen Gewissens der Realwirtschaft sowie einigen ausgewählten Versicherern (Unprecedented stress’ for US life insurers & die dazugehörigen Tabellen) widmen.....Ich befürchte nur das sich hier die Probleme nicht durch Bilanzierungsakrobatik ( Versicherungen selbstredend ausgenommen ) und generösen Notenbanken lösen lassen wird....Das der Steuerzahler auch hier der einzige Freund und Helfer ( in Form von Konjunkturprogrammen, Bürgschaften über staatliche Banken, Zuschüsse für Entwicklung neuer Antriebstechniken, noch höherer Förderung von Dienstwagen usw. ) sein wird setze ich nach den Erfahrungen der letzten 6 Monate schon mal als gegeben voraus...... Die 2010er Zahlen werden sicher "lustig" .....Bisher haben die europäischen Staaten insgesamt wohl mehr als 10 Mrd € an baren Kaufanreizen in den Markt gepumpt um die Neuwagenverkäufe künstlich anzuheizen ( zusätzlich zu den eh schon oftmals staatlich garatntierten günstigen Finanzierungen für die jeweiligen Autobanken )..... UK wird wohl nächste Woche nachziehen ( UPDATE:U.K. Budget Gives Drivers Cash to Scrap Old Cars for New Models ) ..... Nach meinem Kenntnisstand werden wohl auch die USA für das 2 Halbjahr ähnliches verkünden.... Die "Verpackung" für diese Subvention ist in fast allen Ländern identisch... Die Sorge um die Umwelt muß auch hier herhalten...... Über die Nebenwirkungen ( Geld fehlt für andere Anschaffungen, Crash nur auf 2010 verschoben usw ) solcher Eingriffe wird besonders in Wahzeiten nicht sonderlich lange nachgedacht... Die Lobbyarbeit der Autoindustrie ist mindestens auf einer Stufe mit denen der Banken... Respekt!


ACEA Brussels, 16/04/2009 - Declining for the eleventh consecutive month, passenger car registrations in Europe* fell by 9.0% in March compared to the same month last year. The result was lifted by the on average 3 more working days across the region and the effect of fleet renewal schemes in a number of countries. Over the first quarter of 2009, the market was down by 17.2% with a total of 3,439,720 new registrations compared to 4,154,778 units in the same period last year.



Western Europe recorded 1,429,445 new passenger car registrations in March (-8.0%). The result was boosted by the 39.9% expansion of the German market, where consumers continued to respond widely to the government’s incentive scheme introduced in January. Such a development underpinned the markets in France (+8.0%) and Italy (+0.2%) as well.

In the UK, where March is usually a strong month, registrations fell by 30.5%, reflecting the overall persisting lack of confidence in the economy. This sentiment also prevailed in Spain (-38.7%). Three months into the year, new registrations were down 16.3% in Europe*. The German market was the only one to post growth (+18.0%). The downturn hit the Spanish (-43.1%) and the British (-29.7%) markets hardest. The Italian and French markets were down 19.1% and -3.9%. Among the smaller markets, Luxemburg (-10.4%), Switzerland (-12.3%), Austria (-12.9%) and Belgium (-15.3%) performed best while Ireland and Iceland posted a decline of 64.9% and 91.3% respectively.

In the new EU Member States, 76,803 new cars were registered in March, or 25.4% less than last year. Poland and the Czech Republic, two of the major markets in the region, posted a growth of 2.5% and 0.9% respectively. Slovakia also recorded a strong increase of 18.2% following the introduction of a car scrapping scheme. Looking at the cumulative figures from January to March, Poland consolidated its position as the largest market with a total of 87,939 new registrations and a 1.3% upturn. Latvia performed worst with a contraction by 77.9%.

> There are clearly winners & losers ( see table page 3&4 NEW PASSENGER CAR REGISTRATIONS BY MANUFACTURER ) Too bad that one of the biggest loosers is one of my "favourites" for the worst management in the industry Daimler ( see I Want My Buyback Back Daimler Update... Buy Sky High & Selling At Record Low To Abu Dhabi )

> Diese Tabelle auf Seite 3&4 zeigt sehr schön das es eindeutige Gewinner und Verlierer gibt NEW PASSENGER CAR REGISTRATIONS BY MANUFACTURER . Dumm, das selbst die Staatszuwendungen einen meiner Langzeitfavoriten ( siehe I Want My Buyback Back Daimler Update... Buy Sky High & Selling At Record Low To Abu Dhabi ) nicht zu helfen scheinen......

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1 Comments:

Blogger John M said...

OT -

This just in from the H.4.1 table -- $26.762 billion treasuries buy last week -- that's the 2nd highest in the about 480 weeks since Feb '00"Foreign central banks' Treasuries holdings rise - Fed", Reuters, April 16, 2009.

Reuters' "treasury team" doesn't even seem to know that this was an extraordinary move. One of my contacts thinks the cenbanks are compensating for a big selloff by foreign private investors. Can you make sense of this? I can't!

Cheers, John

4:44 PM  

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