Sunday, October 19, 2008

Eastern Europe Carry Trades.......

Over 50 percent of all loans in a foreign currency..... This "conservative" strategie is now backfiring.........No wonder the ATX in Vienna where lots of the dominant banking players are listed is one of the worst performing.. The main players in the Baltics are coming from Scandinavia and especially Sweden (UPDATE : Just in time Sweden braces for a Baltic backlash) ......... Here are more details about the debt & financing troubles in Eastern Europe..... On top of this i recommend this post Baltic Real Estate / Bubble World Tour on the the real epicentre....

Wenn über 50% aller ausstehenden Kredite nicht in der Landeswährung aufgenommen werden kann man nicht gerade von einer "soliden" Finanzierungsform sprechen.... Solange die nur Unternehmen betrifft kann man sicher noch ein Auge zudrücken...Wenn aber private Hypotheken und PKW´s über diesen Weg finanziert werden darf man sich über einen veritablen Kater nicht wirklich wundern......Kein Wunder das der ATX in Wien einer der am übelsten performenden Aktienmärkte überhaupt ist......Hier kommen weitere Details zur Schulden und Finanzierungslage in (der ehemaligen Boomregion ) Osteuropa. Die wesentlichen Spieler im Baltikum kommen aus Skandinavien und da besonders aus Schweden ( UPDATE: Wie passend Sweden braces for a Baltic backlash )....... Darüberhianus verweise ich auf ein früheres Posting aus dem Jahr 2007 Baltic Real Estate / Bubble World Tour das besonders auf das kommende Epizentrum der Krise eingeht.....


WSJForeign-currency borrowing, which is the normal way for Hungarians to buy homes, cars or other big items, are set to become more expensive because of the weak forint, which has lost about 12% of its value against the euro since Oct. 1.

Viktoria Erdos, a 30-year-old professional dancer smoking a cigarette in a café near Budapest's opera house, said her monthly payments on her Swiss-franc mortgage are up about 15%, but it isn't cramping her style too badly. "I'm buying fewer clothes and am partying a bit less," she said. "I'm not really worried yet."


But today's crisis is serious enough. Investors' concern has forced Hungary's authorities to seek a €5 billion ($6.7 billion) loan from the European Central Bank, as well as verbal support from the International Monetary Fund -- two gestures Hungary hopes will persuade investors that the country has strong allies.

All but one of Hungary's major banks are owned by big international banking groups based in Western Europe or the U.S. Around 40% of Hungary's short-term foreign debt is money that banks like Citigroup Inc. lent to their local subsidiaries, according to central-bank figures.

Around two-thirds of Hungary's foreign-currency debt is owed by the private sector, Mr. Simor said -- and most of that is owed by the local units of multinational companies, which dominate Hungary's business scene.


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