Monday, May 12, 2008

MBIA´s Fairytale Continues.....

And they still have an AAA rating...... If you want to have a good laugh click through the presentation MBIA´s Fairytale..... . There are so much low-lights that it is almost impossible to pick the best ones..... Warburg Pincus with their January investment at $ 31 must be proud of their due diligence...... :-). The counterparty risk is increasing.......

Schon sensationell das MBIA immer noch ein AAA Rating mit sich herumschleppt..... Kann jedem der ein bisschen ablachen möchte die nachfolgende Präsentation empfehlen. MBIA´s Märchenstunde........ . Dort sind etliche Tiefpunkte enthalten so das es unmöglich ist einzelne Punkte hervorzuheben..... Besonders glücklich muß wohl Warburg Pincus sein die groß zu $ 31 Ende Januer eingestiegen sind........ Das Risiko das eine Gegenpartei demnächst nicht in der Lage sein wird abgegebene Versprechen einzulösen dürfte demnächst explodieren........

MBIA Posts Loss of $2.4 Billion as CDO Slump Deepens Bloomberg

MBIA had insured bonds backed by home equity lines of credit and closed-end second loans totaling $21 billion at the end of 2007, according to the company.

MBIA: "Forensic experts reviewing loans" Calculated Risk

> Visit the presentation at page 38 for more details..... Funny to see that they were surprised that the " historical cumulative loss levels of 1-2%" is no longer in play......Clearly a sign that their own loss assumptions are superior to the fair value accounting....... Here comes a quote from MBIA from October 2007 MBIA / Denial "The Company believes that the “mark-to-market” loss does not reflect material credit impairment.".... A few billion in real losses later the confidence outside the rating agencies should be fading at light speed.......

> Mehr nette Details gibt es auf Seite 38 der Präsentation...... Besonders herzerfrischend ist das MBIA sich überrascht zeigt das die historisch niedrige Ausfallrate plötzlich nicht mehr zu gelten scheint..... Ein klares Anzeichen dafpür das man auch weiterhin locker auf die angeblich konservativen Modelle von MBIA vertrauen kann.....The Company believes that the “mark-to-market” loss does not reflect material credit impairment. Ich erinnere noch gerne an das MBIA Zitat aus dem Obktober 2007 MBIA / Denial "The Company believes that the “mark-to-market” loss does not reflect material credit impairment."..... Nach ein paar Mrd. realen Verlusten dürfte die Glaubwürdikeit ausserhalb der Ratingagenturen wohl ein wenig gelitten haben......

UPDATE via Calculated Risk / Bloomberg Moody's: Concerned about MBIA and Ambac

MBIA Inc. and Ambac Financial Group Inc. had ``meaningfully'' higher losses on home-equity loans and collateralized debt obligations than anticipated, raising concern about their Aaa status, Moody's Investors Service said. The first-quarter losses reported by the companies in the past two weeks elevate ``existing concerns about capitalization levels relative to the Aaa benchmark,'' Moody's, unit of Moody's Corp., said in a statement today.

Yves from Naked Capitalism sums it up nicely!

Moody's issued the weakest warning it could about the two big monolines. Most observers did not expect the bond insurers' last round of fundraising to carry them very far, and that view appears to be playing out on schedule. We may be moving towards a repeat the January-February drama, with the rating agencies saber rattling until the bond guarantors raise enough money to tide them over for another bit.

> I think we can call this an improvement...This time it took the agencies not years to react to the obvious (sarcasm off).....

> Ich denke man kann das als Verbesserung einstufen....Immerhin dazuert es jetzt nicht mehr Jahre um das Offensichtliche zu erkennen....Ich hoffe meine ironischenhen Bemerkungen werden nicht als echte Würdigung der Ratingagneturen verstanden.... :-)

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2 Comments:

Anonymous eh said...

But I don't think there will be a 'Happy Ending'...

7:43 AM  
Blogger jmf said...

Moin Eh,

i agree.

I can feel and almost smell complacency in almost every asset class again..... Amazing!

The time to go short again is coming....

It will be interesting to see which event will trigger the next downturn....

Have you seen GE since the warning.... No recovery!

8:33 AM  

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