Wednesday, July 18, 2007

Heatmap of House Price Risk / PMI

Click here to read the entire PMI report (pdf) or read the good summary The riskiest housing markets & Price risk for the top 50 U.S. markets from MSN.

Klickt Euch durch die o.g. Links um entweder den kompletten PDF Report oder die guten Zusammenfassungen zu lesen.

Hat tip to sevenofnine!

There's a 34.6% chance on average that home prices will drop in the nation's top 50 markets in the next couple of years

The map depicts in color the geographic distribution of house price risk for all 379 MSAs and the District of Columbia. Each MSA is assigned a risk rank and corresponding color.

Among the 50 largest MSAs, Riverside, CA, Phoenix, AZ, Las Vegas, NV, and West Palm Beach, FL rank highest on the index, with a 60 percent or greater chance that home prices will be lower in two years.

At the other end of the risk spectrum lies a group of MSAs, largely located in the central and southern part of the nation, whose risk scores are moderate to low.
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4 Comments:

Blogger Edgar said...

It couldn't happen to a nicer bunch.

11:30 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

For me it is sehr schwierig to get a good idea about how severely prices might be affected. Both what you might regard as hard, quantifiable market forces are involved, as well as psychological factors -- how potential home buyers will react when they see prices are unstable. I think there is no question prices will fall some, more in one place than another. But I am having a hard time taking that specifically into consideration when making trading and investment decisions. At this point it is one of many aspects...

eh

12:39 PM  
Blogger jmf said...

Moin,

i think it will surprise the majority to see how long and severe this downturn will be.

Maybe the inflation can mask some of the decline but in real terms the slump should be ugly

Í´m still in the camp that thinks the US will enter a recession.

This should have also a big impact on psychology

9:08 PM  
Blogger Edgar said...

Í´m still in the camp that thinks the US will enter a recession.

I've been in a recession most of my life, I don't think I'd even notice. Bring it on!

11:46 PM  

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