Monday, March 26, 2007

new home sales lowest since june 2000

botteming out, leveling of, moderating, ........ i call it free falling.

egal welche no so harmlosen bezeichnungen von den medien und wall street benutzt werden. ich denke man kann hier wirklich von einem freien fall sprechen.


U.S. new-home sales down 18.3% year-on-year

U.S. six-month average new home sales falls to 992,000

U.S. Jan., Dec., Nov. new-home sales revised lower (with good weather)

U.S. Feb. median home prices nearly flat year-over-year

U.S. Feb. new-home inventories rise to 8.1 months' supply

U.S. Feb. new-home inventories highest in 16 years

U.S. Feb. new-homes sales much weaker than 1 mln expected

U.S. Feb. new-home sales fall 3.9% to 848,000 annual pace

U.S. Feb. new-home sales lowest since June 2000



here is more from bloomberg http://tinyurl.com/3dcj7e

The median price of a new home fell 0.3 percent in February to $250,000 from $250,800 a year earlier ( add the rampant incentivs and you get the real picture... rechnet die vergünstigungen dazu und man bekommt ein klareres bild)

While builders are offering more incentives to unload homes already built, the actual number of homes in inventory may be more than the government reports because it doesn't include cancellations (wich are running over 30% / die momentan über 30% liegen)

Snowstorms in the Midwest and Northeast may have restrained home sales and construction, economists said. Last month was the coldest February since 1994 (see my comment on the revised nov,dec,jan data)

New-home sales are considered a more timely gauge of the housing market because they are recorded when a contract is signed. Most sales of existing homes are counted when a contract closes, usually a month or two later.

Residential construction fell by the most since 1991 in the fourth quarter, shaving 1.2 percentage points from growth in an economy that expanded an annual rate of 2.2 percent

Inventories of unsold homes rose 1.5% to 546,000, representing an 8.1-month supply, the largest inventory in relation to sales since January 1991. The inventory is up 26.6% in the past 12 months.

thanks to http://bigpicture.typepad.com/

i wanted to add that the implosion in the subprime market is only 1 month old (starting at the end of february, so the real impact starting march). all the contract that were signed now will have a harder time to get financing. but we all know that cancellation won´t be reported......

ich möchte noch hinzufügen das die implosion im subprimesektor gerade mal einen monat alt ist ( betrifft also eigentlich erst die märzdaten). hier sehen wir also erste ausläufer der verschärften kreditbedingungen. und für all diejenigen die jetzt den vertrag unterschrieben haben wird es schwieriger die finanzierung zu bekommen. da die stornierungen aber unter den tisch fallen werden wir es wohl nicht zu wissen bekommen wieviele dieser aufträge durch das sieb fallen.


with inventory at highs and no need to build more houses this chart shows what will follow .....

die rekordbestände an häusern die auf dem markt sind und damit kein bedarf an zusätzlichen einheiten führt unweigerlich zu einem masiven einbruch der beschäftigung am bau. (kennen wir aus deutschland aus der vergangenheit ja zur genüge)


let the spin begin........

make sure you see great comments and charts from

calculated risk http://tinyurl.com/2sngcj

mike larson http://tinyurl.com/yrcpcn

rodger rafter http://tinyurl.com/34o6p6

housing doom http://tinyurl.com/2ps5v9

mish http://tinyurl.com/28bfjd

northern trust http://tinyurl.com/2h9m7b (pdf)

paper money http://tinyurl.com/2e5dke

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