Friday, October 27, 2006

halloween indicator / chart

powerfull! hohe aussagekraft.

bin gespannt ob der markt auch in diesem jahr dem gleichen muster folgen kann. ich persönlich denke das der markt reif für ne kräftige korrektur ist und die fundamentalen news der letzten wochen scheinen in idese richtung zu gehen. aber wie so of sind fakten und kurse zwei paar schuhe. aber was iszt in diesen tagen schon normal....

it will be interresting to see if the market follows this pattern in 06/07 agein. i doubt it. but i have to agree that weak makro and mikordata have a differnet impact on stocks in this period. this time seems to be very special ........

Chart of the DayThe stock market is now entering what has historically been the strongest half of the year. Today's chart illustrates that investing in the S&P 500 from the last trading day in October (therefore referred to as the Halloween indicator) through the end of April accounted for the vast majority of S&P 500 gains since 1950. While there are some noteworthy periods in which the Halloween indicator didn't produce (i.e. 1973-74 & 2000-01), the overall out performance is compelling.


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