tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-308680102024-03-18T00:22:29.860-07:00immobilienblasenGold...The Ultimate Triple-A Assetjmfhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07573793835441139826noreply@blogger.comBlogger1834125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-30868010.post-10371286729267528742011-02-16T04:59:00.000-08:002011-11-20T01:02:00.996-08:00Herding, Risk Appetite & Complacency Somewhat "Elevated".......Just in time after the <a href="http://finance.fortune.cnn.com/2011/02/16/stocks-fastest-double-ever/">fastest</a> <a href="http://blogs.barrons.com/stockstowatchtoday/2011/02/16/sp-500-more-than-doubles-from-crisis-lows/">100 percent run of the S&P 500</a> ever....From a risk/reward standpoint this should at least raise some eyebrows......Especially when you add things like <a href="http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2011/02/another-look-at-rally-intensity/">"Rally Intensity"</a>, <a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/article/get-ready-margin-collapse-goes-mainstream">margin pressure</a>, <a href="http://www.economist.com/blogs/dailychart/2011/02/arab_league_map">geopolitical "instability"</a>, <a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/article/chris-whalen-wells-fargos-cfo-quit-due-internal-dispute-over-financial-disclosures">"poor" balance sheet quality</a>, <a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/article/korean-bank-run-accelerates-financial-services-chairman-deposits-17864-demonstrate-all-well">Korean bank runs</a>, <a href="http://immobilienblasen.blogspot.com/2010/09/junk-bond-covenants-less-strigend-than.html">"Covenant Lite Flashback 2007</a>, <a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/article/jp-morgan-says-it-had-perfect-trading-second-half-2010-lost-money-just-8-days-2010">"surreal" trading records</a>, <a href="http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2011/02/18/492566/miserable-like-its-1994-in-britain/">a not so pleasant "Misery Index" ( Unemployment & CPI )</a>, persistant <a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/article/merrill-lynch-note-clients-buy-dip">"Buy The Dip" Mentality</a> & <a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/article/laszlo-birinyis-2800-sp-prediction-september-14-2013">an überbullish Biriny</a> into the mix....The term "razor-thin margin of error" is probably not an overstatement..... And i havn´t even mentioned the "almost forgotten" ( <a href="http://immobilienblasen.blogspot.com/search/label/sovereign%20debt">sovereign</a> ) debt crises.... I assume the markets will at the latest be "tested" when there are hints that "QE 3.0" will be temporarily off the table......Just as a reminder...QE 2.0 "Run Rate " right now : $3.3 billion per day ($2.3 million every minute) & movements in the Fed’s balance sheet in the last 14 months have had an 86% correlation with the S&P 500 ( <a href="https://ems.gluskinsheff.net/Articles/Breakfast_with_Dave_2011_02_23.pdf">David Rosenberg</a> ).... The "Run Rate" number is taken from the latest must read <a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/Kyle%20Bass%20Feb%2014.pdf">Kyle Bass / Hayman Capital Management investor letter </a><br /><br /><em>All das fast auf den Tag genau nach einer <a href="http://blogs.barrons.com/stockstowatchtoday/2011/02/16/sp-500-more-than-doubles-from-crisis-lows/">Verdopplung des S&P 500</a>....Nebenbei bemerkt im <a href="http://finance.fortune.cnn.com/2011/02/16/stocks-fastest-double-ever/">kürzesten jemals gemessenen Zeitraum</a>.....Unter Chance/Risikogesichtspunkten haben die Ergebnisse historisch gesehen eher selten eine "stressfreie" Zeit signalisiert....Wenn man weitere Eckpunkte wie z.B. <a href="http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2011/02/another-look-at-rally-intensity/">"Rally Intensität"</a>, <a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/article/get-ready-margin-collapse-goes-mainstream">Margendruck</a>, <a href="http://www.economist.com/blogs/dailychart/2011/02/arab_league_map">geopolitische Instabilität</a>, <a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/article/korean-bank-run-accelerates-financial-services-chairman-deposits-17864-demonstrate-all-well">Koreanische "Bank Runs"</a>, <a href="http://immobilienblasen.blogspot.com/2010/09/junk-bond-covenants-less-strigend-than.html">ultralockere Finanzierungsbedingungen</a>, <a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/article/laszlo-birinyis-2800-sp-prediction-september-14-2013">euphorische Analysten</a>, <a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/article/jp-morgan-says-it-had-perfect-trading-second-half-2010-lost-money-just-8-days-2010">"surreal" anmutende Handelsergebnisse</a>, <a href="http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2011/02/18/492566/miserable-like-its-1994-in-britain/">einen wenig erfreulichen "Misery Index" ( Arbeitslosigkeit & Konsumentenpreisinflation )</a>, <a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/article/merrill-lynch-note-clients-buy-dip">extrem hartnäckige "Buy The Dip" Mentalität</a> & <a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/article/chris-whalen-wells-fargos-cfo-quit-due-internal-dispute-over-financial-disclosures">"fragwürdige" Bilanzierungsmethoden</a> zum Gesamtbild hinzufügt, dürfte klar sein, das "das Eis nicht gerade dicker geworden ist"......Das "fast vergessene" Thema (<a href="http://immobilienblasen.blogspot.com/search/label/sovereign%20debt">Staats</a>)Schuldenkrise will ich nur am Rande erwähnen...... Die "Widerstandsfähigkeit" dürfte allerspätestens ( dann aber "ernsthaft" ) getestet werden, wenn es erste Signale gibt, das "QE 3.0" zumindest für ein kurzes Zeitfenster nicht auf der Tagesordnung steht.....Man muss sich immer wieder aufs Neue vergegenwärtigen das alleine die FED/Bernanke seit Monaten (und noch bis Juni) im Schnitt umgerechnet tagtäglich $3.3 Mrd ($2.3 Millionen jede Minute ) in die Märkte pumpt & lt. <a href="https://ems.gluskinsheff.net/Articles/Breakfast_with_Dave_2011_02_23.pdf">David Rosenberg</a> sich der S&P 500 in den letzten 14 Monaten mit einer Korrelation von satten 86% analog zur Bilanzsumme der US Notenbank entwickelt hat....In diesem Zusammenhang komme ich nicht darum hin auf den wirklich lesenswerten <a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/Kyle%20Bass%20Feb%2014.pdf">Kyle Bass / Haymann Capital Management Investorenbrief</a> zu verweisen.....Danach dürfte selbst die rosaroteste Brille zumindest einen kleinen Spliss davon getragen haben.....</em><br /><br /><br /><div align="center"><strong>Net Overweight Equities </strong>via <a href="http://www.faz.net/s/Rub645F7F43865344D198A672E313F3D2C3/Doc~E43D227F5FC834DE7BF2CCCB60541EE09~ATpl~Ecommon~SMed.html#F91A2B12DA7D4FD2A1F92F5F067E1B99">FAZ</a> </div><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh3R-wYL9OmaCpbd5SpjUWdkErKGMXQ7kNffIiOhZqXAmYviuSoQkC9_41Jm9K4OSS51LaLFyJJ36gb-335n-BX1phVwpNXgk_1CdGnqNmxJ-1QtWntKEJ2AK6ZqYasvOopxRrjkA/s1600/herding+stock+allocation.jpg"></a><br /><div><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiYOLEZhcomPA4XIgDbLfXvSLplYgOK0D4czmYR4uAan7Tu2n7UG9o2qJamO_UkSC-o0DFLZHMvUJ6pf8dR90aKNN_8ul4ONnBcHnpeaYRH0mqwe-c6e-1ePleW0R0q1nmI4ysv3g/s1600/FAZZZZ.jpg"><img style="TEXT-ALIGN: center; MARGIN: 0px auto 10px; WIDTH: 400px; DISPLAY: block; HEIGHT: 233px; CURSOR: hand" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5676999053400512002" border="0" alt="" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiYOLEZhcomPA4XIgDbLfXvSLplYgOK0D4czmYR4uAan7Tu2n7UG9o2qJamO_UkSC-o0DFLZHMvUJ6pf8dR90aKNN_8ul4ONnBcHnpeaYRH0mqwe-c6e-1ePleW0R0q1nmI4ysv3g/s400/FAZZZZ.jpg" /></a><br /><br /><a href="http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2011/02/15/489036/raging-bulls/">Raging bulls</a> FT Alphaville<blockquote>And the <strong>overwhelming theme </strong>of the latest BofA Merrill Lynch fund managers survey is…<br /><br /><strong>Complacency.<br /><br />From record equity and commodity overweights…<br /><br /></strong><strong>Asset allocation is straightforward and extreme: equity surges to a record O/W of 67%; commodities also at record O/W of 28%; bond allocation tumbles to -66%, lowest since April’06 and close to a record low.<br /><br />The February FMS is one of the most bullish in years. Institutions have record equity and commodity overweights, very low cash levels and the strongest risk appetite since Jan‘06.<br /><br /></strong>The FMS Risk Appetite Index rose to its highest level (47) since Jan‘06. Hedge fund net exposure rose to 39%, highest since July’07.<strong> Cash balances fell from 3.7% to 3.5%, triggering our FMS cash trading rule equity sell signal</strong></blockquote><div align="center"><br /><strong>Net Overweight Cash </strong>via <a href="http://www.faz.net/s/Rub645F7F43865344D198A672E313F3D2C3/Doc~E43D227F5FC834DE7BF2CCCB60541EE09~ATpl~Ecommon~SMed.html#C9A3DC335154447883C38FBC6401666B">FAZ</a></div><br /><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjEdTZ-Fysk1ImuKUVUOmg3h3o-W8pXyQERzJkI3wPiW-8X-_dF4Hjuq5_0ZgqdbeN9Ge5xDmOcgMIZAbeVDMnw7T405Z36Ay2SPSFJOSZ2anIVBR6T_Uay8uzDTXMAqoPcHRjM6g/s1600/FAZZZZZ.jpg"><img style="TEXT-ALIGN: center; MARGIN: 0px auto 10px; WIDTH: 400px; DISPLAY: block; HEIGHT: 231px; CURSOR: hand" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5676999056576418258" border="0" alt="" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjEdTZ-Fysk1ImuKUVUOmg3h3o-W8pXyQERzJkI3wPiW-8X-_dF4Hjuq5_0ZgqdbeN9Ge5xDmOcgMIZAbeVDMnw7T405Z36Ay2SPSFJOSZ2anIVBR6T_Uay8uzDTXMAqoPcHRjM6g/s400/FAZZZZZ.jpg" /></a><br /><br /><a href="http://www.faz.net/s/Rub645F7F43865344D198A672E313F3D2C3/Doc~E43D227F5FC834DE7BF2CCCB60541EE09~ATpl~Ecommon~Sspezial.html"><em>Fondsmanager sind rekordoptimistisch</em></a><em> FAZ</em><em></em><em></em> <br /><blockquote><p><em>Fondsmanager sind äußerst optimistisch. <strong>Noch nie hatten so viele von ihnen Aktien in ihren Depots übergewichtet</strong>, seit die Frage bei der Umfrage von BofA Merrill Lynch im April des Jahres 2001 zum ersten Mal gestellt wurde.<br /><br /><strong>67 Prozent von ihnen haben Aktien in ihren Depots</strong>, so das Ergebnis der Februarausgabe der einmal monatlich stattfindenden Umfrage von BofA Merrill Lynch unter 188 Fondsmanagern weltweit. <strong>Das ist der höchste Stand, seit die Frage im April des Jahres 2001 in dieser Form zum ersten Mal gestellt wurde.<br /><br />Noch im Januar hatte dieser Anteil lediglich 55 Prozent betragen und im Dezember des vergangenen Jahres sogar nur 40 Prozent.</strong> </em></p><em><strong>Währen der „Aktienoptimismus“ immer extremer wird, werden die Anleihen immer unbeliebter. 66 Prozent der Fondsmanager haben sie untergewichtet, nach 54 Prozent im Januar und 47 Prozent im Dezember. Die Differenz zwischen jenen, die Aktien über- und Anleihen untergewichtet haben, ist so groß wie noch nie zuvor im Rahmen der Befragung.</strong></em></blockquote><br /><a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/article/merrill-finds-money-manager-confidence-stocks-all-time-record-high">Merrill Finds That Money Manager Confidence In Stocks At All Time Record High</a> ZH<br /><br />Couldn´t resist ( Page 17 )....... ;-)<br /><br /><em>Kann mir diesen Hinweis ( Seite 17 ) einfach nicht verkneifen..... ;-)</em><br /><br /><strong><blockquote>GOLD VALUATION :<br /><br />FMS respondents remain firmly outside of the GOLD fan club with panellists seeing the metal as overvalued for much of the past 3 years.<br /><br />February’s reading of net 31% overvalued is little changed from a record reading of a net 33% last month. </blockquote></strong>Not quite the definition of "ALL IN"..... Reassuring to see that at least since 2008 it seems almost nobody of the so called "Smart Money" has read the <a href="http://immobilienblasen.blogspot.com/2010/07/special-gold-report-in-gold-we-trust.html">Special Gold Report "In Gold We Trust"</a>....<br /><br /><em>Nicht gerade die Definition von "ALL IN"....... Beruhigend zu sehen das seit 2008 anscheinend immer noch sehr wenige der Fondsmanager einen Blick in den <a href="http://immobilienblasen.blogspot.com/2010/07/special-gold-report-in-gold-we-trust.html">Special Gold Report "In Gold We Trust"</a> geworfen haben....</em><br /><br /><strong>Sentiment & Herding UPDATE</strong> via David Rosenberg ( see Blogroll )<br /><blockquote><strong>The latest investment surveys show 52% bulls and a mere 13% bears</strong>. We heard anecdotally that at the ISI conference, the widespread majority believed new highs were coming for equity valuations, bonds were the most detested asset class, and that inflation was going to rip.<br /><br /><strong>One person who attended told us that he had never before been to an event when the consensus was so one-sided, and that says a lot when you consider all the tech conferences being held in 1999 and 2000.</strong><br /><br /><strong>Reading a Bloomberg news story this morning, we were reminded that you have to go back 40 years to see the last time the U.S. stock market surged as much as it has in the past six months with such little volatility and opportunities to buy on dips along the way.</strong> In other words, this is not a normal market by any means,having been a virtual straight line up ever since Mr. Bernanke announced QE2 in late August.<br /><br />And the same institution that conducted the survey above also just published a report concluding that the Shiller cyclically-adjusted P/E ratio is <a href="http://pragcap.com/is-the-shiller-pe-out-of-date">a relic and not to be relied upon as a valuation tool</a> — perhaps because it is now suggesting that the market is 30% more expensive relative to historical norms.</blockquote><!-- AddToAny BEGIN --><p align="center"><a class="a2a_dd" href="http://www.addtoany.com/share_save?linkurl=http%3A%2F%2Fimmobilienblasen.blogspot.com%2F2011%2F02%2Fherding-risk-appetite-complacency.html&linkname=Herding%2C%20Risk%20Appetite%20%26%20Complacency%20Somewhat%20%22Elevated%22.......%20"><img border="0" alt="Share" src="http://static.addtoany.com/buttons/share_save_256_24.png" width="256" height="24" /></a></p><!-- AddToAny END --></div>jmfhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07573793835441139826noreply@blogger.com187tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-30868010.post-30333767722951714482011-01-21T07:38:00.002-08:002012-04-08T08:10:55.527-07:00How Not To Restore Credibility..... "BOE´s Adam Posen Edition"The fact that he is also an <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Adam_Posen">American economist</a> & has co-written a book on inflation targeting with Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke might explain at least in part his quote...... ;-)
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<br /><em>Man muss zu seiner "Verteidigung" erwähnen das er laut Wikipedia ebenfalls ein <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Adam_Posen">amerikanischer Ökonom</a> ist. Da verwundert es wenig das er zusammen mit Bernanke Co-Autor eines Werkes zum Thema Inflation ist.... Dies relativiert zumindest ein wenig den fast satirisch anmutenden Charakter seines Zitates....;-)</em><em></em><em>
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<br /><p align="center"><img src="http://www.manager-magazin.de/img/0,1020,1003558,00.jpg" /></p></em><em></em><em></em><em></em><em></em><em></em><em></em><em></em><em>
<br /><p align="center"></p></em><blockquote><p align="center"><strong>"CPI, excluding currency, commodities and VAT impact, is low"</strong></p></blockquote>The quote came in response after CPI once more "slightly" missed the 2 percent target....... Sometimes it´s better to stay just silent.....
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<br /><em>Diese Aussage kam nachdem im Dezember die Konumentenpreisinflation in UK mal wieder "knapp" das angestrebte Ziel von 2% verfehlt hat........ Ähnlich wie bei etlichen "Offiziellen" scheint das Sprichwort "Reden ist Silber, Schweigen ist Gold" nicht sonderlich viele Anhänger zu haben....
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<br /></em><a href="http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2011/01/18/461666/record-breaking-forecast-busting-uk-inflation/">Record-breaking, forecast-busting UK inflation</a> FT Alphaville<blockquote>Highest yy rate for CPI food and non-alcoholic beverages since May 2009
<br />Highest yy rate for CPI housing, utilities component since Aug 2009
<br />Highest yy rate for CPI goods component since April 2010
<br />Highest yy rate for CPI services component since Aug 2010 -
<br />Highest yy rate for CPI fuels and lubricants component since July 2010</blockquote>
<br /><p align="center"><img src="http://av.r.ftdata.co.uk/files/2011/01/UK-December-inflation-ONS.jpg" /></p>Posen is almost as funny as ECB´s Smaghi with his "joke" <a href="http://immobilienblasen.blogspot.com/2010/07/joke-of-day-from-ecbs-smaghi-more.html">"€ More Stable Than Deutsche Mark" </a>..... But in comparison with <a href="http://immobilienblasen.blogspot.com/2010/12/john-hussman-is-stating-obvious.html">Bernanke</a> & <a href="http://www.salon.com/entertainment/comics/this_modern_world/2007/09/24/tomo/story.jpg">Greenspan</a> even they seem "reasonable".... ;-)
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<br /><em>Finde trotzdem das im Fach "Realsatire" die EZB dank Bini Smaghi mit der Behauptung das der <a href="http://immobilienblasen.blogspot.com/2010/07/joke-of-day-from-ecbs-smaghi-more.html">"€ stabiler als die DM ist" </a>noch immer knapp den zweiten Platz hinter den unangefochtenen Spitzenreitern <a href="http://immobilienblasen.blogspot.com/2010/12/john-hussman-is-stating-obvious.html">Bernanke</a> & <a href="http://www.salon.com/entertainment/comics/this_modern_world/2007/09/24/tomo/story.jpg">Greenspan</a> einnimmt..... </em><em></em>
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<br />Now take a look at real rates ( base rates minus CPI ) in the UK......
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<br /><em>Der nachfolgende Chart zeigt den "realen Zinssatz" in UK verglichen mit dem Letzins und ich empfehle jedem drigend den <a href="http://www.ftd.de/finanzen/maerkte/marktberichte/:das-kapital-ein-realer-leitzins-von-minus-3-2-prozent/50216515.html">treffenden Kommentar</a> <strong>(!) </strong>der FT Deutschland zu diesem Thema zu lesen..... </em><em></em><em></em><em></em><em></em>
<br /><p align="center"><img src="http://thumb4.ftd.de/original/Image/2011/01/18/p/151901_PfundKAP_c.gif" /></p>
<br /><p align="center"></p><strong>UPDATE</strong>: The <a href="http://av.r.ftdata.co.uk/files/2011/01/Nomura_gilts2.png">Real 10-Year Rates Chart</a> confirms the "vigilance" of the the BOE ....
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<br /><em><strong>UPDATE</strong>: Der </em><a href="http://av.r.ftdata.co.uk/files/2011/01/Nomura_gilts2.png"><em>Chart der realen 10 Jahresrenditen</em></a> <em>bestätigt welch "Sonderstellung" die BOE einnimmt....
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<br />This in combination with the next chart showing the printing that the BOE has done so far & the remarks from the end of September doesn´t make Posen´s quote less "cynical".......
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<br /><em>Das im Zusammenhang mit dem nächsten Chart, der zeigt das selbst die Fed in Relation zur BOE "zurückhaltend" agiert, sowie den Aussagen Ende September lassen das Zitat nicht gerade weniger "zynisch" erscheinen..... </em>
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<br /><p align="center"><img src="http://av.r.ftdata.co.uk/files/2010/09/Central-bank-balance-RBS.jpg" /></p>H/ T <a href="http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2010/09/23/350641/the-great-race-to-the-bottom/">RBS via FT Alphaville</a>
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<br /><a href="http://www.businessweek.com/news/2010-09-29/posen-makes-boe-prosecution-case-for-more-stimulus.html">Posen Makes BOE ‘Prosecution’ Case for More Stimulus </a>September 29, Bloomberg
<br /><blockquote>Bank of England policy maker<strong> Adam Posen made the strongest call yet for the bank to restart its asset-purchase program.
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<br /></strong>“Additional monetary stimulus at this point should begin in the form of additional QE as the Bank of England pursued by purchasing gilts in 2009-2010,” he said. “<strong>In case such QE were to prove insufficiently effective,” Posen said he would “still want preparation ahead of a Plan B of large-scale non-gilt asset purchases”</strong> in close coordination with the Treasury.
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<br /><strong>Posen, 43, an American citizen, joined the central bank from the Washington-based Peterson Institute for International Economics. A co-writer of a book on inflation targeting with Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke</strong>, he also published a study of the Japanese financial crisis and was a researcher at the Bundesbank and European Central Bank.</blockquote>Wouldn´t surprise me if down the road even politicians will be more popular than members of the BOE & when the term "central banksters" will gain more and more traction....
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<br /><em>Ich persönlich wäre nicht überrascht wenn zumindest in UK die Notenbänker in absehbarer Zeit noch unbeliebter als Politiker unterwegs sind..... </em>
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<br /><strong>UPDATE:</strong>
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<br /><a href="http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2011/01/26/466931/searching-for-boe-credibility-on-inflation/?updatedcontent=1">Searching for BoE credibility on inflation</a> FT Alphaville<blockquote><p align="center">From Deutsche Bank, the number of news stories that match three topical words:</p></blockquote><div align="center"></div>
<br /><p align="center"><img src="http://av.r.ftdata.co.uk/files/2011/01/factiva.jpg" /></p>
<br />SCHADENFREUDE........ ;-)
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<br /><a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2011/02/07/business/07king.html?_r=1&ref=business">A Crisis of Faith in Britain’s Central Banker</a> NYT<blockquote>A central banker need not be loved, but at the least he should command respect — and in Britain these days Mervyn King cannot count on either. </blockquote><a href="http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2011/02/07/480601/the-pre-emptive-uk-rate-hike/?updatedcontent=1">The pre-emptive UK rate hike</a> FT Akphaville<blockquote><strong>…over the last 6 years (ie 2005Q1 to 2010 Q4), real GDP growth has undershot the MPC’s forecast made a year earlier in 22 quarters and overshot in just 2 quarters. Conversely, inflation has overshot the MPC’s forecast in 20 quarters and undershot in just 4 quarters.</strong></blockquote><p align="center"><a class="a2a_dd" href="http://www.addtoany.com/share_save?linkurl=http%3A%2F%2Fimmobilienblasen.blogspot.com%2F2011%2F01%2Fhow-not-to-restore-confidence-boes-adam.html&linkname=How%20Not%20To%20Restore%20Credibility.....%20%22BOE%C2%B4s%20Adam%20Posen%20Edition%22%20"><img border="0" alt="Share" src="http://static.addtoany.com/buttons/share_save_256_24.png" width="256" height="24" /></a></p>jmfhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07573793835441139826noreply@blogger.com21tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-30868010.post-59409877250344152622011-01-15T06:48:00.001-08:002012-04-08T08:07:12.642-07:00Excellent Interactive Map via The Economist : "US Equivalents: Which Countries Match The GDP And Population Of America´s States"I think in the context of the ongoing & worsening <a href="http://immobilienblasen.blogspot.com/2010/03/payback-time-state-debt-woes-grow-too.html">budget crises</a> the chart provides a good perspective when sooner or later the MUNI topic will dominate headlines... At the latest when they need another reason to justify "QE 3.0".... ;-)<br /><br /><em>Denke die Übersicht ist besonders hilfreich wenn es wohl eher früher als später um den <a href="http://immobilienblasen.blogspot.com/2010/03/payback-time-state-debt-woes-grow-too.html">desaströsen</a> Zustand der öffentlichen Haushalte in den einzelnen Bundesstaaten und Gemeinden geht ( Stichwort <a href="http://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kommunalanleihe">MUNIcipal bonds</a> ).... Würde mich nicht überraschen wenn zukünftig die Begriffe "QE 3.0 & MUNIS" in demselben Zusammenhang genannt werden.....</em><br /><object width="595" height="630"><param name="movie" value="http://media.economist.com/sites/default/files/media/2011InfoG/Interactive/US_equivalents_7/main.swf"><param name="allowFullScreen" value="true"><param name="allowscriptaccess" value="always"><br /><br /><br /><embed type="application/x-shockwave-flash" src="http://media.economist.com/sites/default/files/media/2011InfoG/Interactive/US_equivalents_7/main.swf" allowscriptaccess="always" allowfullscreen="true" width="595" height="630"></embed><br /></object><br /><br /><blockquote>US equivalents......Which countries match the GDP and population of America's states?<br /><br />IT HAS long been true that California on its own would rank as one of the biggest economies of the world. These days, it would rank eighth, falling between Italy and Brazil on a nominal exchange-rate basis. But how do other American states compare with other countries? Taking the nearest equivalent country from 2009 data reveals some surprises. Who would have thought that, despite years of auto-industry hardship, the economy of Michigan is still the same size as Taiwan's?</blockquote>The <a href="http://www.economist.com/blogs/dailychart">Daily Chart via The Economist</a> has much more to offer... Check it out....<br /><br /><em>Empfehle jedem regelmäßig dem </em><a href="http://www.economist.com/blogs/dailychart"><em>Daily Chart via The Economist</em></a><em> einen Besuch abzustatten... Lohnt sich..... </em><br /><br />I think the example of Illinois ( equivalent of Turkey ) & the clip with Meredith Whitney makes it cristal clear that this won´t be a minor issue down the road....<br /><br /><em>Wer noch Zweifel daran hat das der Begriff "MUNIS" in absehbarer Zeit auch in der deutschen Presse häufiger zu hören sein wird sollte sich das Beispiel Illinois ( lt. interactiver Karte auf "Augenhöhe" mit der Türkei ) vor Augen führen und das Video von Meredith Whitney ansehen... .....</em><br /><br /><a href="http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2010/12/illinois-governor-wants-to-borrow-15.html">Illinois Governor Wants to Borrow $15 Billion to "Balance" the Budget; Illinois Total Unfunded Liabilities Exceed $200 Billion Already </a>Mish<br /><br /><a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/article/illinois-seeks-issue-875-billion-bond-pay-overdue-bills-muni-issuance-market-verge-shutdown">Illinois Seeks To Issue $8.75 Billion Bond To Pay Overdue Bills As Muni Issuance Market On Verge Of Shutdown<br /></a><br /><br /><object width="640" height="385"><param name="movie" value="http://www.youtube.com/v/wpr4BohzaaI?fs=1&hl=de_DE"><param name="allowFullScreen" value="true"><param name="allowscriptaccess" value="always"><br /><embed src="http://www.youtube.com/v/wpr4BohzaaI?fs=1&hl=de_DE" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" allowscriptaccess="always" allowfullscreen="true" width="640" height="385"></embed></object><br /><br />To put Whitney comments into perspective i suggest to read the more balanced <a href="https://self-evident.org/?p=884">rebuttal</a> from Self-Evident & <a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-02-01/whitney-municipal-bond-apocalypse-is-short-on-default-specifics.html">Whitney Municipal-Bond Apocalypse Is Short on Default Specifics</a> via Blommberg.... Personally i think it´s only a matter a time until a "Black Swan" arrives in the MUNI complex..... Like in Europe ( Greece & Ireland ) it will be interesting to see how the politicians will be able or willing to "balance" the pain among voters via austerity, tax hikes, cuts in entitlements etc. & bondholders via haircuts.... Either way this won´t be GDP & market positive.....<br /><br /><em>Für alle die Whitneys Aussagen für übetrieben halten bietet sich die <a href="https://self-evident.org/?p=884">kritische "Gegenschrift"</a> von Self- Evident & <a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-02-01/whitney-municipal-bond-apocalypse-is-short-on-default-specifics.html">Whitney Municipal-Bond Apocalypse Is Short on Default Specifics</a> via Bloomberg an..... Ich persönlich bin der Meinung das es einzig und alleine eine Frage des Zeitpunkts ist, wann ( und nicht ob ) auch der MUNI Markt Besuch vom "Black Swan" bekommt..... Ähnlich wie in Europa ( Griechenland & Irland ) wird es sehr interessant zu sehen sein inwieweit die Politiker Willens & in der Lage sind die notwendigen Einschnitte zwischen den Wählern ( Kürzungen, Steuererhöhungen, drastische Einschnitte in Pensionsplänen usw )und Anleihebesitzern "auszubalancieren".... Keine der möglichen Lösungen dürfte "marktpositive" Wirkung entfallten.... In Realtime ist dies in Irland & Griechenland zu beobachten.... </em><br /><br /><a href="http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/01/15/state-budgets-year-ahead-_n_809521.html">State Budgets: Year Ahead Looms As Toughest Yet </a>HuPo<br /><br /><br /><blockquote><strong>If 2011 is hinting at a national recovery, there is little sign of it in statehouses across the country.<br /><br />States that already have raided their reserve funds, relied on borrowing or accounting gimmicks,</strong> and imposed deep cuts on schools, parks and public transit systems no longer can protect key services in the face of another round of multibillion dollar deficits.</blockquote><a href="http://blogs.wsj.com/marketbeat/2011/01/20/are-mom-n-pop-investors-freaked-out-by-munis-flow-data-says-yes/">Are Mom-n-Pop Investors Freaked Out By Munis? Flow Data Says Yes.</a> MarketBeat WSJ<br /><br /><blockquote>For the week ended Wednesday, <strong>investors pulled more than $4 billion from muni funds, extending the outflow streak to ten consecutive weeks. The $4 billion pullout also represents the largest week of outflows during the run </strong></blockquote>Maybe it´s time to reread the <a href="http://immobilienblasen.blogspot.com/2010/07/special-gold-report-in-gold-we-trust.html">Special Gold Report "In Gold We Trust"</a> from Erste Group..... ;-)<br /><br /><em>Kann nicht schaden sich demnächst den <a href="http://immobilienblasen.blogspot.com/2010/07/special-gold-report-in-gold-we-trust.html">Special Gold Report "In Gold We Trust"</a> der Ersten Bank mal wieder vorzunehmen.....</em> ;-)<br /><br /><strong>UPDATE:</strong><br /><br /><a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/article/nyt-reports-states-looking-ways-file-bankruptcy-muni-bondholders-be-gmed">NYT Reports States Looking For Ways To File Bankruptcy, Muni Bondholders To Be GMed</a> NYT via ZH<br /><br /><br /><blockquote>Bankruptcy could permit a state to alter its contractual promises to retirees, which are often protected by state constitutions, and it could provide an alternative to a no-strings bailout<strong>.</strong> Along with retirees, however, <strong>investors in a state’s bonds could suffer, possibly ending up at the back of the line as unsecured creditors. </strong></blockquote><a href="http://www.economist.com/node/17248984?story_id=17248984">American states' pension funds</a> The Economist<br /><br /><br /><p align="center"><img alt=" " src="http://media.economist.com/images/images-magazine/2010/10/16/bb/20101016_bbc454.gif" /></p><br /><a href="http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2011/01/24/467536/space-time-and-public-pension-black-holes/">Space, time and public pension black holes</a> FT Alphaville<br /><br /><a href="http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2011/01/24/467041/muni-mayhem-charted/">Muni mayhem, charted</a> FT Alphaville<br /><br /><br /><p align="center"><img src="http://av.r.ftdata.co.uk/files/2011/01/munibonds.jpg" /></p><br /><a href="http://blogs.wsj.com/marketbeat/2011/01/26/yes-investors-are-still-dumping-munis/">Yes, Investors are Still Dumping Munis.</a> WSJ MarketBeat<br /><br /><blockquote>The big loser in today’s data is the Municipal fund space which lost -$5.7 bln. <strong>This takes total outflows for January 2011 up to -$10.26 bln which is the greatest outflow since our data starts in 2007. Note that even at the height of the Lehman crisis outflows peaked at -$8.36 bln in October 2008</strong>.</blockquote><a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2011/01/27/business/27pension.html?ref=business">Moody’s Credit Ratings of States to Factor in Unfunded Pensions</a> NYT<br /><br /><br /><p align="center"><img alt="" src="http://graphics8.nytimes.com/images/2011/01/27/business/27pension_gfc/27pension_gfc-popup.jpg" width="500" height="370" /></p><br /><em><a href="http://www.spiegel.de/flash/0,,25145,00.html">Interaktive Karte US Staaten im Überblick</a> Der Spiegel<br /><br /><a href="http://www.spiegel.de/wirtschaft/soziales/0,1518,742473,00.html">US-Bundesstaaten stehen vor der Pleite</a> Der Spiegel</em><br /><br /><a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/article/presenting-obamas-plan-bail-out-otherwise-perfectly-solvent-states">More from the NYT on why QE3.1 - the Muni Edition is just around the corner</a><br /><br /><blockquote>The NYT reports that "President Obama is proposing to ride to the rescue of states that have borrowed billions of dollars from the federal government to continue paying unemployment benefits during the economic downturn. His plan would give the states a two-year breather before automatic tax increases would hit employers, and before states would have to start paying interest on the loans."<br /><br />Michigan, for instance, owes the federal government $3.7 billion it borrowed to pay unemployment benefits. Under current law the state would be forced to pay $117 million in interest to the federal government this fall, and the federal tax on employers would automatically step up each year to repay the debt.</blockquote><br /><br /><p align="center"><a class="a2a_dd" href="http://www.addtoany.com/share_save?linkurl=http%3A%2F%2Fimmobilienblasen.blogspot.com%2F2011%2F01%2Fexcellent-interactive-map-via-economist.html&linkname=Excellent%20Interactive%20Map%20via%20The%20Economist%20%3A%20%22US%20Equivalents%3A%20Which%20Countries%20Match%20The%20GDP%20And%20Population%20Of%20America%C2%B4s%20States%22%20"><img border="0" alt="Share" src="http://static.addtoany.com/buttons/share_save_256_24.png" width="256" height="24" /></a></p><br /><script type="text/javascript" src="http://static.addtoany.com/menu/page.js"></script>jmfhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07573793835441139826noreply@blogger.com17tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-30868010.post-62043708455713445502011-01-12T09:58:00.000-08:002011-01-13T00:02:33.151-08:00The South China Mall, White Elephants & Beijing University.......I have blogged about this mall in <a href="http://immobilienblasen.blogspot.com/2007/04/many-savers-few-spenders-leave-south.html">April 2007</a> and even i´m surprised that things have indeed deteriorated further....<br /><br /><em>Ich habe bereits im </em><a href="http://immobilienblasen.blogspot.com/2007/04/many-savers-few-spenders-leave-south.html"><em>April 2007 </em></a><em>über besagtes Einkaufszentrum gebloggt und es sieht so aus als wenn sich die Lage seit Eröffnung nicht gerade verbessert hat....<br /><br /></em><object width="625" height="438"><param name="movie" value="http://www.youtube.com/v/bH6FJOyaSEQ?fs=1&hl=de_DE"><param name="allowFullScreen" value="true"><param name="allowscriptaccess" value="always"><embed src="http://www.youtube.com/v/bH6FJOyaSEQ?fs=1&hl=de_DE" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" allowscriptaccess="always" allowfullscreen="true" width="625" height="438"></embed></object><br /><br />Most "comical " aspect is that, according to Paul Allen from Bloomberg News, the new owner of this "white elephant" is now the <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peking_University">Beijing University</a> .... ?!?!? Surprising that even the Bloomberg reporter shrugs this probably most interesting circumstance of.....<br /><br /><em>Die Frage muß erlaubt sein warum ausgerechnet die </em><a href="http://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peking-Universit%C3%A4t"><em>Universität in Peking </em></a><em> jetzt Eigentümer ( lt. Paul Allen von Bloomberg News ) geworden ist..... ?!?!?</em> <em>Mindestens genauso überraschend ist, wie fast selbstverständlich der Bloomberg Reporter die wohl mit Abstand interessanteste Tatsache erwähnt, das Universitäten zumindest zum Teil massiv in Immobilien "machen".......<br /><br /></em>It seems the spin regarding the housing market ( see <a href="http://immobilienblasen.blogspot.com/2010/08/china-bubble-bursting-update-newest.html">China "Bubble" ( Bursting ) Update & Newest Spin "Excluding Tier 1 Cities Everything Is Fine......"</a> ) cannot be asserted when it comes to malls.... ;-)<br /><br /><em>Es sieht damit ganz so aus als wenn die fast verzweifelt klingende Aussage das Abseits der großen Metropolen der Wohnimmobilienmarkt noch "günstig" ist ( siehe <a href="http://immobilienblasen.blogspot.com/2010/08/china-bubble-bursting-update-newest.html">China "Bubble" ( Bursting ) Update & Newest Spin "Excluding Tier 1 Cities Everything Is Fine......"</a> ) für Einkausfzentren nicht behauptet werden kann...;-) </em><br /><br />But one has to admit that th South China Mall is somewhat "special" and won´t win any awards for their "superb" market research....<br /><br /><em>Man muß fairerweise zugestehen das die South China Mall wohl keine Preise für besonders gute Marktforschung und Planung gewinnen wird.....</em><br /><br /><blockquote><strong>Over the last few years, hundreds of malls have popped up around China, which now claims seven of the world's 20 largest. Two of those, Oriental Plaza in Foshan and Grandview Mall in Guangzhou, are within 50 miles of South China Mall. </strong></blockquote>It will be fun to see if the ghost town par excellence ORDOS ( see <a href="http://immobilienblasen.blogspot.com/2009/11/central-planning-ghosts-town-in-china.html">Central Planning & Ghost Towns In China..... </a>& <a href="http://www.time.com/time/photogallery/0,29307,1975397_2094492,00.html">Ordos, China: A Modern Ghost Town</a> ) will face a similar destiny....<br /><br /><em>Es wird interessant zu sehen sein wie sich die Geisterstadt schlechthin ORDOS ( siehe <a href="http://immobilienblasen.blogspot.com/2009/11/central-planning-ghosts-town-in-china.html">Central Planning & Ghost Towns In China..... </a>& <a href="http://www.time.com/time/photogallery/0,29307,1975397_2094492,00.html">Ordos, China: A Modern Ghost Town</a> ) in den nächsten Jahren entwickelt.....</em>jmfhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07573793835441139826noreply@blogger.com33tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-30868010.post-75405541567243417312011-01-05T08:18:00.002-08:002012-04-08T08:20:59.926-07:00Food Prices Hit Record High......One can only hope that the very critical price of Rice ( see <a href="http://tfc-charts.w2d.com/chart/RI/M">Chart</a> & <a href="http://www.fao.org/economic/est/publications/rice-publications/rice-market-monitor-rmm/en/">Rice Market Monitor</a> ) will stay well below the last "riot" highs from 2008..... <strong>UPDATE</strong>: <a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/article/jim-rogers-rotates-gold-rice-sets-foundation-next-bubble">Jim Rogers Rotates From Gold To Rice, Sets Foundation For Next Bubble</a> ZH<br /><br /><em>Man kann nur hoffen das der alles entscheidende Preis für Reis ( siehe <a href="http://tfc-charts.w2d.com/chart/RI/M">Chart</a> & <a href="http://www.fao.org/economic/est/publications/rice-publications/rice-market-monitor-rmm/en/">Rice Market Monitor</a> ) weiterhin deutlich unter dem letzten (Unruhe)Hoch aus dem Jahr 2008 bleiben wird....<strong>UPDATE:</strong> <a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/article/jim-rogers-rotates-gold-rice-sets-foundation-next-bubble">Jim Rogers Rotates From Gold To Rice, Sets Foundation For Next Bubble</a> ZH</em><br /><br /><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEht_exiADtR3fBZsvUTJiYQcmdKqStt-c-WMfp1GWqEM1zZ3inPz_laPMa9ebxsvSB5HVBQnLIouc3fm5_y4e9sYqPXxIOEFh6wqvBsY8SMGl59kEljdHwQojmoGJt9oYyzTM6G4A/s1600/Food+inflation+2006-2010.jpg"><img style="TEXT-ALIGN: center; MARGIN: 0px auto 10px; WIDTH: 228px; DISPLAY: block; HEIGHT: 286px; CURSOR: hand" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5558743067119828978" border="0" alt="" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEht_exiADtR3fBZsvUTJiYQcmdKqStt-c-WMfp1GWqEM1zZ3inPz_laPMa9ebxsvSB5HVBQnLIouc3fm5_y4e9sYqPXxIOEFh6wqvBsY8SMGl59kEljdHwQojmoGJt9oYyzTM6G4A/s400/Food+inflation+2006-2010.jpg" /></a><br /><a href="http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704405704576063782444998952.html?mod=WSJEUROPE_hpp_LEFTTopWhatNews">WSJ</a><blockquote> The index doesn't measure domestic retail prices, which can be affected by a wide range of factors, including government subsidies. Instead, the index tracks export prices and can still serve as a barometer of what consumers may pay.</blockquote><a href="http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/51241bc0-18b4-11e0-b7ee-00144feab49a.html#axzz1ABIDEkLR">FT</a><blockquote><p><strong>Food prices hit a record high last month, surpassing the levels seen during the 2007-08 crisis, the <a href="http://www.fao.org/worldfoodsituation/FoodPricesIndex/en/">UN’s Food and Agricultural Organisation </a>said on Wednesday.</strong><br /><br />The Rome-based organisation said the increase did not constitute a crisis. But Abdolreza Abbassian, senior economist at the FAO, acknowledged that the situation was “alarming”. He added: “It will be foolish to assume this is the peak.”<br /><br />The jump will increase fears about the repetition of the crisis of 2007-2008. However, poor countries have not so far seen the wave of food riots that rocked countries such as Haiti and Bangladesh two years ago, when prices of agricultural commodities jumped.<br /><br />The increase in food costs will also hit developed economies, with companies from McDonald's to Kraft raising retail prices.<br /><br />Higher food prices are also boosting overall inflation, which is above the preferred targets of central banks in Europe.</p></blockquote><p>Compare the food CPI problems of the ECB, BOE & FED with the rest of the world.....<br /><br /><em>Der Rest der Welt kann über die Nahrungsmittelpreisprobleme der EZB, BOE & Fed wohl nur gequält lächeln..... </em></p><p><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgyCYAWB8VqkX77gOlSLIuvcC8SMvMPWZ5COXsz24oHrDw6S3dFCsKEsPTmIINdh-1V64QAIpOo9AHXiHfzLF57HOnZYoCiJMqfzNeH1bJ9q1lTT7-9apc2nGsR0ylafIgQz8w4OA/s1600/Food+inflation+details+reagions.bmp"><img style="TEXT-ALIGN: center; MARGIN: 0px auto 10px; WIDTH: 400px; DISPLAY: block; HEIGHT: 302px; CURSOR: hand" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5558740923382592162" border="0" alt="" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgyCYAWB8VqkX77gOlSLIuvcC8SMvMPWZ5COXsz24oHrDw6S3dFCsKEsPTmIINdh-1V64QAIpOo9AHXiHfzLF57HOnZYoCiJMqfzNeH1bJ9q1lTT7-9apc2nGsR0ylafIgQz8w4OA/s400/Food+inflation+details+reagions.bmp" /></a><br />Please note that the chart above covers only the first 6 Month in 2010....Looking at the <a href="http://www.fao.org/fileadmin/templates/worldfood/images/index_table.jpg">monthy price table</a> it should be clear that the real spike happenend since July.....<br /><br /><em>Der obige Chart wird noch weniger appetitlich wenn man bedenkt das lediglich der Zeitraum bis einschließlich Juni 2010 berücksichtigt ist....Ein Blick auf den </em><a href="http://www.fao.org/fileadmin/templates/worldfood/images/index_table.jpg"><em>Food Price Index</em></a><em> zeigt leider das der Löwenanteil des Anstieges im 2. Halbjahr vollzogen worden ist....<br /><br /></em><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgGkLmjvtM9vpJ9wKEH2seBR_hna2gSlDSTOZQ9BNcw1OwXz_xi3Yz43VU4swWFD93paSioWMnryfoFryX9zUtTK5gJYsnx2dgvMQPC_t2h9d-XxhzPJRRZbnsafkTa5VBH-1MIpQ/s1600/Food+inflation+details.bmp"><img style="TEXT-ALIGN: center; MARGIN: 0px auto 10px; WIDTH: 393px; DISPLAY: block; HEIGHT: 330px; CURSOR: hand" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5558740468550523298" border="0" alt="" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgGkLmjvtM9vpJ9wKEH2seBR_hna2gSlDSTOZQ9BNcw1OwXz_xi3Yz43VU4swWFD93paSioWMnryfoFryX9zUtTK5gJYsnx2dgvMQPC_t2h9d-XxhzPJRRZbnsafkTa5VBH-1MIpQ/s400/Food+inflation+details.bmp" /></a><br />H/T <a href="http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2010/08/10/310776/inflation-indices-and-bond-markets-wheat-themselves/">FT Alphaville</a><br /><br />Probably not an understatement that at least a "small" part of the increase is related to the wisdom of the central banksters around the world..... I´m very sceptical that without "QE" & with "credible" central bankers ( and politicians ) we would face similar headlines.....<strong>UPDATE</strong>: Speaking of "credible" people <a href="http://timiacono.com/index.php/2011/01/07/ben-bernanke-and-the-price-of-oil/">Ben Bernanke and the Price of Oil</a>.....Wouldn´t surprise me if way too many on Wall Street & in the numerous "ivory towers" around the world are calling develompents like this "collataral damage"....<br /><br /><em>Denke es ist keine Untertreibung zu sagen das zumindest ein "kleiner" Anteil des Preisanstieges der geballten Weisheit der weltweiten Notenbänker geschuldet ist..... Ich kann mir nur sehr schwer vorstellen das wir ohne "QE" und mit "glaubwürdigen und vertrauenserweckenden" handelnden Personen ähnliche Schlagzeilen zu verkraften hätten...<strong>UPDATE:</strong> Da wir gerade von Glaubwüdigkeit gesprochen haben <a href="http://timiacono.com/index.php/2011/01/07/ben-bernanke-and-the-price-of-oil/">Ben Bernanke and the Price of Oil</a>...Würde mich ebenfalls stark wundern wenn an Wall Street & in den leider reichlich vorhandenen "Elfenbeintürmen" eine solche Entwicklung nicht als "Kollataralschaden" bezeichnet wird.....<br /></em><strong>UPDATE:</strong> </p><p>Just in time comes the follwoing chart via <a href="http://www.ftd.de/finanzen/maerkte/marktberichte/:das-kapital-lektionen-gelernt/50211739.html">FT Germany</a><em> </em>showing the correleation from REAL US rates ( rhs inverted ) & the commodity complex...... And the FED is not alone.....</p><p><em>Passender hätte der folgende Chart der </em><a href="http://www.ftd.de/finanzen/maerkte/marktberichte/:das-kapital-lektionen-gelernt/50211739.html"><em>FT Deutschland</em></a><em> nicht sein können.....Mit Ausnahme des fehlenden "QE" Hinweises hätte ich den </em><a href="http://www.ftd.de/finanzen/maerkte/marktberichte/:das-kapital-lektionen-gelernt/50211739.html"><em>dazugehörigen Bericht</em></a><em> nicht besser formulieren können .... Zu allem übel muß man leider feststellen das die FED in Ihrer Politik nicht allein auf weiter Flur steht.....<br /></p></em><em><p align="center"><img src="http://thumb1.ftdcdn.de/original/Image/2011/01/05/p/spaet/150601Rohstoff_Kap.gif" /></em></p><p>Real rates in the Euro area & UK....</p><p><em>Realzinsen unter Aufsicht der EZB und der BOE.......</em></p><p align="center"><img src="http://thumb4.ftd.de/original/Image/2011/01/13/spaet/171401Leitzins_Kap_C.jpg" /></p><p>H/T <a href="http://www.ftd.de/finanzen/maerkte/marktberichte/:das-kapital-eine-frage-an-unsere-keynesianischen-freunde/50214678.html">FT Deutschland</a> </p><p align="center"><img src="http://thumb4.ftd.de/original/Image/2011/01/18/p/151901_PfundKAP_c.gif" /></p>H/T <a href="http://www.ftd.de/finanzen/maerkte/marktberichte/:das-kapital-ein-realer-leitzins-von-minus-3-2-prozent/50216515.html">FT Deutschland</a><p></p><p>Back with then original Story..... <em>Weiter mit dem Eröffnungslink.....</em> </p><blockquote>The FAO said its food price index, a basket tracking the wholesale cost of commodities such as wheat, corn, rice, oilseeds, dairy products, sugar and meats, jumped last month of 214.7 points – up almost 4.2 per cent from November.<br /><br /><strong>The FAO is drawing comfort from relatively stable prices for rice, one of the two most important cereals for global food security, which remains far below its record high. Rice is the staple of 3bn people in Asia and Africa.<br /><br />The FAO food index is at its highest since the measure was first calculated in 1990. During the 2007-08 food crisis, the index reached a peak of 213.5 in June 2008</strong><p></p><strong>However, the cost of the other critical staple, wheat, is now rising fast on the back of poor harvests.<br /><br /></strong>“This is a high prices situation,” said Mr Abbassian, although he pointed to the fact the costs of cereals – and particularly rice – were below the peaks set in 2007-08.</p><strong>“Rice and wheat are, from a global food security perspective, the critical agricultural commodities</strong>, not sugar, oilseeds or meat,” he said.<br /><br /><strong>The increasing costs of sugar, whose price recently hit a 30-year high, oilseeds and meat are the main reason behind the rise in the FAO food index</p></blockquote></strong>.<br /><img style="TEXT-ALIGN: center; MARGIN: 0px auto 10px; WIDTH: 228px; DISPLAY: block; HEIGHT: 286px; CURSOR: hand" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5558743236755474226" border="0" alt="" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg1fwRgPUkjqag2ZkRyluAYr-h3ZUELH6tjh0fEWDY1V7H1eH5BOTrCI6vJdqV6-Xkef45S1sqkxwyeyCs9oZIDlCleGkPGgokCC0jBF6CFDNm-Wnat9DwfgEslUL58uY5MrAybuA/s400/food+inflation+components.jpg" /><blockquote><strong><p>The rise of commodity prices makes it likely that the global food import bill will hit a record high in 2011</strong>,after topping $1,000bn last year for only the second time. In November, the FAO raised its 2010 forecast to $1,026bn, up almost 15 per cent from 2009 and within a whisker of a record high of $1,031bn set in 2008 during the food crisis.</p></blockquote>At least the "food import bill" will provide incentives to withstand or slow down the "competitive devaluation trend".....<strong>UPDATE:</strong> <a href="http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704422204576131213522622904.html">Asia Fights Inflation With Stronger Currencies</a><br /><em>Wenn man überhaupt etwas positives an der Situation erkennen will dann vielleicht das die bedrohlich steigenden Nahrungsmittelpreise den bisher vorherrschenden "Währungskrieg" mit der klaren Tendenz die eigene Währung künstlich niedrig zu halten, wenn auch nicht aufhalten, so doch zumindest verlangsamen könnte.....<strong>UPDATE:</strong> <a href="http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704422204576131213522622904.html">Asia Fights Inflation With Stronger Currencies</a></em><blockquote>Agricultural commodities prices have surged following a series of crop failures caused by bad weather. The situation was aggravated when top producers such as Russia and Ukraine imposed export restrictions, prompting importers in the Middle East and North Africa to hoard supplies.</p></blockquote>I think it´s a safe bet that around the world subsidies & government involvement ( food stamps, price controls, ban on exports etc ) will not "deflate".....<br /><br /><p></p>One uselful "involvement" would be to start with the derivatives complex... ;-)<br /><br /><em>Sicherlich wird weltweit das Thema Subventionen & "Regierungseinmischungen" ( Essensmarken, Preiskontrollen, Exportbeschränkungen usw. ) in den nächsten Jahren häufiger die Schlageilen dominieren.... </em><p></p><em>Eine der wenigen produktiven "Einmischungen" wäre, wenn man sich dem Thema "Derivate & Terminbörsen" mal etwas genauer widmen würde... ;-)</em><strong>UPDATE:<br /></strong><br /><a href="http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/food-production-is-down-hunger-is-up-and-prices-are-rising/article1859420/?from=1859417">Food production is down, hunger is up and prices are rising / INFOGRAPHIC</a> The Globe And Mail<br /><br /><a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2011/01/06/business/global/06food.html?ref=business">U.N. Data Notes Sharp Rise in World Food Prices</a> NYT<br /><p align="center"><img alt="" src="http://graphics8.nytimes.com/images/2011/01/06/business/06food-gfc/06food-gfc-popup.jpg" width="450" height="324" /></p><br />Needless to say that the NYT & GAM make no reference when it comes to the relation of prices & "sound money" .... ;-)<br /><br /><em>Überflüssig festzustellen, das es auch die NYT & GAM versäumen zumindest in einem Nebensatz die nicht unwesentliche Korrelation von Preisen und "verantwortungsvoller Geldpolitik" zu erwähnen.... ;-)<br /><br />Immerhin wunderschön zu sehen das eine Firma wie Monsanto, die bei diesen Nahrungsmittelpreisen eigentlich durch die Decke gehen müßten, noch immer <a href="http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=MON+Interactive#symbol=MON;range=my">50% vom Hoch</a> notiert.....Um meine SCHADENFREUDE zu verstehen, muß man sich zwingend <a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gDrvFiRwWP8">Monsanto - mit Gift und Genen</a> ansehen.... Meiner Meinung nach die beste und wichtigste Doku der letzten Jahre über eine Firma die wahrscheinlich über noch bessere Lobbyisten verfügt(te) als alle Banken der Wall Street zusammen ..... ;-)</em><br /><br /><strong>More UPDATES</strong> :<br /><br /><a href="http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20110106/ap_on_re_af/af_algeria_riots">Youths riot in Algeria over high food prices</a> Associated Press<blockquote><strong>Riots over rising food prices and chronic unemployment spiraled out from Algeria's capital on Thursday</strong>, with youths torching government buildings and shouting "Bring us Sugar<br /><br />Wednesday's violence started after evening Muslim prayers. <strong>It came after price hikes for milk, sugar and flour in recent days, and amid simmering frustration that Algeria's abundant gas-and-oil resources have not translated into broader prosperity.</strong></blockquote><a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/article/food-riots-commence-feds-loose-money-policy-leads-first-violence-2011">Food Riots Commence As The Fed's Loose Money Policy Leads To First Violence Of 2011</a> Zero Hedge<br /><br /><em><a href="http://www.welt.de/politik/ausland/article12043612/Mann-bei-Protest-gegen-teures-Essen-erschossen.html">Mann bei Protest gegen teures Essen erschossen</a> Die Welt</em><br /><br /><a href="http://www.thereformedbroker.com/2011/01/14/lester-brown-with-your-daily-malthusian-affirmation/">Big Picture Agriculture / Lester Brown</a> via Reformed Broker<blockquote><strong>In the United States, which harvested 416 million tons of grain in 2009, 119 million tons went to ethanol distilleries to produce fuel for cars. That's enough to feed 350 million people for a year</strong>.... The combined effect of these three growing demands is stunning: a doubling in the annual growth in world grain consumption from an average of 21 million tons per year in 1990-2005 to 41 million tons per year in 2005-2010. Most of this huge jump is attributable to the orgy of investment in ethanol distilleries in the United States in 2006-2008.</blockquote><a href="http://www.bondvigilantes.co.uk/blog/2011/01/17/1295278560000.html">Bond Vigilanties </a><blockquote>The reasons behind the ugly scenes in Tunisia are down to a combination of political and economic factors, but at least part of the discontent stems from rising food and energy prices<br /><br />The problem these countries face is that food and energy prices are a much bigger percentage of an emerging consumer's shopping basket than for a developed consumer's basket. Food and energy therefore carry a much higher weight in domestic consumer price indices within emerging markets, which is something I discussed last year when going over some of the risks to the emerging market story </blockquote><img src="http://www.bondvigilantes.co.uk/blog/UserFiles/Image/em%20inflation1.jpg" /><blockquote><strong>To an extent, higher food and energy prices are a result of expansionary economic policy in the US combined with a reluctance of emerging market countries (particularly China) to allow their currencies to appreciate versus the US dollar. Would it not be ironic if the very policies that US authorities have pursued to return the US economy to growth then proceed to be the cause of global economic weakness?</strong></blockquote><a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/article/food-stamp-usage-hits-new-high-432-million">Food Stamp Usage Hits New High Of 43.2 Million</a> ZH<br /><br /><img src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/havenstein/food%20stamps.png" /><br /><br />It´s safe to say that without similar programs in the G7 countries we would see similar "riots" like in Algeria etc.....<br /><br /><em>Man muß kein Prophet sein, um zu erkennen das in den G7 Ländern ohne ähnliche Programme längst "ziviler Ungehorsam" wie momentan in Algerien, und demnächst wohl noch deutlich mehr Ländern, zu sehen sein würden....<br /><br /></em><a href="http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2011/01/21/465676/the-food-price-vulnerability-index/">The food price vulnerability index</a> Citi via FT Alphaville / Tilt<em><br /><br /><img src="http://av.r.ftdata.co.uk/files/2011/01/Food-price-vulnerability-index-Citigroup.jpg" /></em><blockquote>The index has been created by Citigroup and its based on the idea that a country’s central banks are more likely to have to respond to a food price shock if:<br /><br />1) the consumer price index is sensitive to changes in good prices.<br /><br />2) growth is strong — the chances of contagion from food prices to core CPI are strongest when demand pressures are in any case robust.<br /><br />3) Relatively loose monetary policy– on the grounds<br />that a country already behind-the-curve might have some nasty catching-up to do if a food price shock leads to a surge in inflationary pressures overall.<br /><br />And China ticks all those boxes.</blockquote><a href="http://www.economist.com/node/17969925?story_id=17969925">Back with a vengeance</a> Economist<br /><p align="center"><img src="http://media.economist.com/images/images-magazine/2011/01/22/fn/20110122_fnc025.gif" /></p><br /><a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/article/russia-imposes-inflation-driven-price-controls-use-price-caps-socially-important-commodities">Russia Imposes Inflation-Driven Price Controls: Will Use Price Caps On "Socially Important" Commodities<br /></a><blockquote>Russia has just announced it would proceed with price caps on a variety of foodstuffs, from buckwheat, to potatoes, assorted fruits and vegetables and all other commodities it deems "socially important" accoding to Russian newspaper gazeta.ru.</blockquote><a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/article/interactive-map-recent-food-riots-and-price-hikes">Interactive Map Of Recent Food Riots And Price Hikes</a> ZHjmfhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07573793835441139826noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-30868010.post-84254866833214458722010-12-06T00:08:00.000-08:002010-12-15T23:06:46.872-08:00John Hussman Is Stating The Obvious......I´ve promised to come back after QE 3.0 has started.... Well, it looks like Bernanke <a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/article/ben-bernanke-economic-recovery-may-not-be-self-sustaining-may-buy-more-bonds-depending-infla">started</a> at least the "campain" to hint QE 3.0..... Initially my comment that the break would take only <a href="http://immobilienblasen.blogspot.com/2010/10/im-taking-another-break.html">a few weeks</a> should sound ironic... With Bernanke in charge i should have known better...;-) Thank god he is <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/bernanke-100-confident-2010-12"><strong>100 PERCENT!</strong></a> ( no typo ) certain ( his "brilliant" track record ,see <a href="http://immobilienblasen.blogspot.com/2009/08/bernanke-sees-recovery-how-would-he.html">Youtube : Bernanke in Denial</a>, should insprice confidence.... ) he could stave off ( core LOL ) cpi inflation when and if it came to that... Probably no coincidence that the topic asset price inflation aka bubbles & the US$ didn´t made it into the interview .... ;-) ( Quote Mish : That was not really an "interview" on 60 minutes, it was an infomercial for Bernanke ) On the topic Bernanke & QE 2.0 i urge you to read the latest comment from <a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/article/hugh-hendry-december-commentary-must-read">Hugh Hendry</a>, <a href="http://immobilienblasen.blogspot.com/2010/10/jeremy-grantham-night-of-living-fed.html">Jeremy Grantham </a>& <a href="http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2010/12/multiple-simultaneous-games-of-chicken.html">Mish</a>.<br /><br /><em>Habe ja angekündigt spätestens nachdem QE 3.0 gestartet worden ist wieder etwas regelmäßiger zu bloggen.... Nach diesem Wochenende kann man sagen das Bernanke zumindest die Kampagne für QE 3.0 </em><a href="http://www.manager-magazin.de/finanzen/boerse/0,2828,732976,00.html"><em>gestartet</em></a><em> hat..... Eigentlich war mein Hinweis, das die Bloggerpause wahrscheinlich nur </em><a href="http://immobilienblasen.blogspot.com/2010/10/im-taking-another-break.html"><em>einige Wochen</em></a><em> dauern wird, ironisch gemeint....Mit einem wie Bernanke an den Schalthebeln hätte ich es besser wissen müssen.... ;-) Nur gut das sich Bernanke zu <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/bernanke-100-confident-2010-12"><strong>100 PPROZENT!</strong></a> sicher ist ( leider kein Übersetzungsfehler.... Nach Ansicht von <a href="http://immobilienblasen.blogspot.com/2009/08/bernanke-sees-recovery-how-would-he.html">Youtube : Bernanke in Denial</a> sind Aussagen wie diese bestenfalls als bedenklich, bin halt ein höflicher Zeitgenosse, zu bezeichnen ) auf den eh schon massiv geschönten ( hedonisch, Kernrate, usw ) Warenpreiskorb auswirken .... Sicher kein Zufall das die Frage nach der Vermögenspreisinflation sprich BLASE sowie der US$ es nicht in das Interview, das Mish richtig als INFOMERCIAL für Bernanke bezeichnet, geschafft hat.... ;-) In diesem Zusammenhang empfehle ich einen Blick in den den letzten Kommentar von </em><a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/article/hugh-hendry-december-commentary-must-read"><em>Hugh Hendry</em></a> , <a href="http://immobilienblasen.blogspot.com/2010/10/jeremy-grantham-night-of-living-fed.html"><em>Jeremy Grantham</em> </a><em>& <a href="http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2010/12/multiple-simultaneous-games-of-chicken.html">Mish</a>z u werfen...</em><em></em><br /><p align="center"><img src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg_eunGrqHUReC0X19HsUSsAxAfXKJSgMi84PZHeWR693pHdo_XetGb8yA_5RyfegFBKQtHYlhFzrM7K9dPv9SbGQbeuhzlfn0vtGTZNCrPIxMC8yUZAf8l3j36FEyl2yFIfJoX5Q/s1600/levergared+planet+nyt.jpg" /></p><a href="http://www.hussmanfunds.com/wmc/wmc101206.htm">John Hussman</a><br /><blockquote><p>It doesn't take much thought to recognize that, like<strong> Bernanke's actions, the actions of the ECB are ultimately likely to represent not monetary policy but fiscal policy.</strong></p><p><strong>When you buy the debt of countries that have a high likelihood of defaulting on this debt, or will avoid default only by the creation of currency that could have been issued to finance fiscal expenditures, it follows that you are engaging in fiscal policy without the authorization of elected governments. </strong><br /></p></blockquote><blockquote><p><strong>We are allowing 99% of the world to accept budget cuts and austerity in order to defend bondholders from taking losses or having to accept debt restructuring. When bondholders lend money to a financial company or to a country, at a spread over the yield available safe debt, they are explicitly accepting the risk that the bet will not work out, and that they may lose money in the event of a restructuring.</strong></p><p><strong>When government policy at every level focuses on making bondholders whole, then government policy at every level focuses equivalently on protecting the inefficient and dangerous misallocation of capital. </strong></p></blockquote><blockquote></blockquote><p>Almost a miracle that so far the populist backlash & the social unrests against the "war on taypayers" are still minor... I fear that this will change rather sooner than later...... <strong>UPDATE: </strong><a href="http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2010/12/video-fire-bombs-stones-fly-in-greek.html">Video: Fire bombs, Stones Fly in Greek Riots; All Flights to/from Athens Cancelled </a></p><p>The daily headlines about trillions in black holes & the people in charge should be at least enough to give the <a href="http://immobilienblasen.blogspot.com/2010/07/special-gold-report-in-gold-we-trust.html"><strong>Special Gold Report "In Gold We Trust" - Erste Group</strong></a> a shot..... In contrast to Hendry & Grantham i still think GOLD is not a bad <strong>long term</strong> hedge against the wisdom of the "Central Banksters" & politicians... ;-) </p><p><em>Bin überrascht das es bisher in Sachen Populismus und vereinztelten ( zu 99% glimpflich verlaufenden ) Demos vorwiegend in Südeuropa ( <strong>UPDATE:</strong> <a href="http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2010/12/video-fire-bombs-stones-fly-in-greek.html">Video: Fire bombs, Stones Fly in Greek Riots; All Flights to/from Athens Cancelled </a>bisher kein größerer Gegenwind für ständig wiederkehrende Rettungsaktionen einzig und allein zu Lasten der Steuerzahler gibt... Dank des bisher eingeschlagenen Weges </em><em>befürchte ich allerdings das sich das demnächst ändern wird....Spätestens dann dürfte speziell Europa und der € irreparablen Schaden davon getragen haben....</em></p><p><em>Die inzwischen zur Gewohnheit gewordenen tagtäglichen ( und noch vor 12 Monaten für unmöglich gehaltenen) Schlagzeilen über gigantische Summen sowie die Historie der handelnden Personen sollten ausreichen zumindest mal einen Blick in den <a href="http://immobilienblasen.blogspot.com/2010/07/special-gold-report-in-gold-we-trust.html"><strong>Special Gold Report "In Gold We Trust"</strong></a> der Ersten Group zu werfen...</em> <em>Obwohl ich damit anderer Meinung als Hendry & Grantham bin, denke ich das GOLD</em><strong> </strong><em><strong>langfristig</strong> nicht die schlechteste Absicherung gegen die geballten Wesiheiten der weltweiten ( aber inbesonders der angelsächsich geprägten ) "Central Bankster" sowie der momentan handelnden Politiker ist....;-)</em></p><p>Without a good dose of humor the daily spin is almost impossible to withstand... So enjoy an almost instant classic.....</p><p><em>Da dies alles mit einer gehörige Portion Humor wesentlich leichter zu ertragen ist lege ich allen dringend den nachfolgenden Clip ans Herz....Dürfte bereits jetzt ( 4 Wochen nach Veröffentlichung ) als Klassiker durchgehen....</em><br /><br /><object width="640" height="505"><param name="movie" value="http://www.youtube.com/v/PTUY16CkS-k?fs=1&hl=de_DE"><param name="allowFullScreen" value="true"><param name="allowscriptaccess" value="always"><embed src="http://www.youtube.com/v/PTUY16CkS-k?fs=1&hl=de_DE" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" allowscriptaccess="always" allowfullscreen="true" width="640" height="505"></embed></object></p><br /><strong>Update:<br /><br /></strong><a href="http://timiacono.com/index.php/2010/12/06/money-printing-and-100-percent-confidence/">Did Bernanke Pull a Fast One Last Night?</a> The Mess That Greenspan Made<br /><br /><a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/article/guest-post-bernanke-100-sure">Guest Post: Bernanke Is 100% Sure</a> Jim Quinn of The Burning Platform via ZH<br /><br /><a href="http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2010/12/lies-half-truths-and-100-hubris-on-60.html">Lies, Half-Truths, and 100% Hubris on 60 Minutes</a> Mish<br /><br /><a href="http://timiacono.com/index.php/2010/12/08/money-printing-and-100-confidence-day-4/#more-13674">Money Printing and 100% Confidence – Day 4</a> Pento & Baum via Tim<br /><br /><a href="http://www.economist.com/blogs/buttonwood/2010/12/qe_ben_bernanke_and_santa_claus">Helicopter Ben gets in a spin</a> The Economist<br /><br /><br /><table style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #f5f5f5; FONT: 11px arial; COLOR: #333" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="360" height="353"><tbody><tr style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #e5e5e5" valign="center"><td style="PADDING-BOTTOM: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; PADDING-RIGHT: 1px; PADDING-TOP: 2px"><a style="COLOR: #333; FONT-WEIGHT: bold; TEXT-DECORATION: none" href="http://www.thedailyshow.com/" target="_blank">The Daily Show With Jon Stewart</a></td><td style="TEXT-ALIGN: right; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; PADDING-RIGHT: 5px; FONT-WEIGHT: bold; PADDING-TOP: 2px">Mon - Thurs 11p / 10c</td></tr><tr style="HEIGHT: 14px" valign="center"><td style="PADDING-BOTTOM: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; PADDING-RIGHT: 1px; COLOR: #333; FONT-WEIGHT: bold; TEXT-DECORATION: none; PADDING-TOP: 2px" colspan="2" target="_blank" href="http://www.thedailyshow.com/watch/tue-december-7-2010/the-big-bank-theory">The Big Bank Theory<a></a></td></tr><tr style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #353535; HEIGHT: 14px" valign="center"><td style="TEXT-ALIGN: right; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; WIDTH: 360px; PADDING-RIGHT: 5px; OVERFLOW: hidden; PADDING-TOP: 2px" colspan="2"><a style="COLOR: #96deff; FONT-WEIGHT: bold; TEXT-DECORATION: none" href="http://www.thedailyshow.com/" target="_blank">http://www.thedailyshow.com/</a></td></tr><tr valign="center"><td style="PADDING-BOTTOM: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 0px; PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-TOP: 0px" colspan="2"><embed style="DISPLAY: block" height="385" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" width="600" src="http://media.mtvnservices.com/mgid:cms:item:comedycentral.com:367652" wmode="window" allowfullscreen="true" flashvars="autoPlay=false" allowscriptaccess="always" allownetworking="all" bgcolor="#000000"></embed></td></tr><tr style="HEIGHT: 18px" valign="center"><td style="PADDING-BOTTOM: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 0px; PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-TOP: 0px" colspan="2"><table style="TEXT-ALIGN: center; MARGIN: 0px" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%" height="100%"><tbody><tr valign="center"><td style="PADDING-BOTTOM: 3px; PADDING-LEFT: 3px; WIDTH: 33%; PADDING-RIGHT: 3px; PADDING-TOP: 3px"><a style="FONT: 10px arial; COLOR: #333; TEXT-DECORATION: none" href="http://www.thedailyshow.com/full-episodes/" target="_blank">Daily Show Full Episodes</a></td><td style="PADDING-BOTTOM: 3px; PADDING-LEFT: 3px; WIDTH: 33%; PADDING-RIGHT: 3px; PADDING-TOP: 3px"><a style="FONT: 10px arial; COLOR: #333; TEXT-DECORATION: none" href="http://www.indecisionforever.com/" target="_blank">Political Humor</a></td><td style="PADDING-BOTTOM: 3px; PADDING-LEFT: 3px; WIDTH: 33%; PADDING-RIGHT: 3px; PADDING-TOP: 3px"><a style="FONT: 10px arial; COLOR: #333; TEXT-DECORATION: none" href="http://www.blogger.com/www.facebook.com/thedailyshow" target="_blank">The Daily Show on Facebook</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table>jmfhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07573793835441139826noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-30868010.post-36327138657359787302010-10-26T23:28:00.000-07:002011-01-28T21:37:54.481-08:00Jeremy Grantham "Night of the Living Fed’After this post i will continue with my temporary "time out"...Image was just too spot on to pass and is topping even <a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjAbGOjv4f_wKNcrnav1UDSVqnh1sqLEDA-ycndbvcAQzIwY0FAHijFDiCyRi49jhTDoirxF2x6PdHy_7tsLsr-0Dl8Kl8mBLenO1NB5aR5gOwu102elO5-E9eQLAFASS24K__MoA/s1600-h/cartoon+bailout+otion+armageddon.jpg">the "They Won´t Stay Dead" version"</a>.....<br /><br /><em>Werde nun meine wohlverdiente Pause fortsetzen....Konnte bei dieser wohl treffensten Illustration seit langem einfach nicht wiederstehen.....Toppt sogar noch <a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjAbGOjv4f_wKNcrnav1UDSVqnh1sqLEDA-ycndbvcAQzIwY0FAHijFDiCyRi49jhTDoirxF2x6PdHy_7tsLsr-0Dl8Kl8mBLenO1NB5aR5gOwu102elO5-E9eQLAFASS24K__MoA/s1600-h/cartoon+bailout+otion+armageddon.jpg">die "They Won´t Stay Dead" Version</a>...</em><br /><br /><a title="View Grantham October on Scribd" href="http://www.scribd.com/doc/40187158/Grantham-October" style="margin: 12px auto 6px auto; font-family: Helvetica,Arial,Sans-serif; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; font-size: 14px; line-height: normal; font-size-adjust: none; font-stretch: normal; -x-system-font: none; display: block; text-decoration: underline;">Grantham October</a> <object id="doc_777053578282599" name="doc_777053578282599" height="700" width="100%" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" data="http://d1.scribdassets.com/ScribdViewer.swf" style="outline:none;" > <param name="movie" value="http://d1.scribdassets.com/ScribdViewer.swf"> <param name="wmode" value="opaque"> <param name="bgcolor" value="#ffffff"> <param name="allowFullScreen" value="true"> <param name="allowScriptAccess" value="always"> <param name="FlashVars" value="document_id=40187158&access_key=key-2922t5x32vw41w9g16ku&page=1&viewMode=list"> <embed id="doc_777053578282599" name="doc_777053578282599" src="http://d1.scribdassets.com/ScribdViewer.swf?document_id=40187158&access_key=key-2922t5x32vw41w9g16ku&page=1&viewMode=list" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" allowscriptaccess="always" allowfullscreen="true" height="700" width="100%" wmode="opaque" bgcolor="#ffffff"></embed> </object> <br /><br /><a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/jeremy-grantham-on-gold-2010-10">Unlike</a> Grantham i think <a href="http://immobilienblasen.blogspot.com/2010/07/special-gold-report-in-gold-we-trust.html">this</a> is a not a bad long term hedge against the wisdom of the "Central Banksters"... ;-)<br /><br /><em>Selbst wenn einer wie Grantham es etwas <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/jeremy-grantham-on-gold-2010-10">anders sieht</a> denke ich das <a href="http://immobilienblasen.blogspot.com/2010/07/special-gold-report-in-gold-we-trust.html">dies</a> langfristig nicht die schlechteste Absicherung gegen die geballten Wesiheiten der weltweiten ( aber inbesonders der angelsächsich geprägten ) "Central Bankster" ist....;-)</em>jmfhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07573793835441139826noreply@blogger.com35tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-30868010.post-52611099718893648792010-10-02T05:10:00.000-07:002010-10-10T23:40:33.732-07:00I´m Taking Another Break......In the meantime make sure you give one of the best free avaiblable photo blog <a href="http://www.boston.com/bigpicture/">News Stories In Photographs</a> a shot... You won´t be disapointed.....Take the <a href="http://www.boston.com/bigpicture/2010/09/oktoberfest_2010.html">Oktoberfest (40 photos total)</a> as an example... I´ll be back when QE 3.0 has started... So the break won´t last longer than a few weeks ...;-) <strong>UPDATE:</strong> <a href="http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2010/10/05/360571/qe-wars-japan-edition/">QE wars, Japan edition</a><br /><br /><br /><em>Werde mal wieder eine Pause einlegen und mich wieder melden wenn QE 3.0 gestartet worden ist... Bei dem Tempo das die Notenbänker weltweit vorlegen dürfte die Pause also kaum weniger als ein paar Wochen betragen.... ;-) <strong>UPDATE:</strong> <a href="http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2010/10/05/360571/qe-wars-japan-edition/">QE wars, Japan edition</a> In der Zwischenzeit komme ich nicht daraum herum euch einen der besten Fotoblogs </em><a href="http://www.boston.com/bigpicture/"><em>News Stories In Photographs</em></a><em> ans Herz zu legen.... Nicht nur die Fotoserie zum </em><a href="http://www.boston.com/bigpicture/2010/09/oktoberfest_2010.html"><em>Oktoberfest (40 photos total)</em></a><em> ist mehr als gut gelungen... </em><br /><br /><a href="http://www.boston.com/bigpicture/2010/09/human_landscapes_in_sw_florida.html">Human landscapes in SW Florida (26 photos total)</a><br /><blockquote><p>A couple weeks ago, I was listening to a story by NPR's Planet Money team about "Toxie" a toxic asset they had purchased to follow and help tell the story of the recent financial meltdown. One of the mortgages in Toxie was on a home bought for investment in Bradenton, Florida, and the team took a look at housing in the area. Many homes there are empty and have been for years. Huge developments sit partially completed among densely built up neighborhoods and swampland. A guest stated that there were "enough housing lots in Charlotte County to last for more than 100 years". Boom and bust residential development has drastically affected parts of southwest Florida for decades now, and I spent some time (with the help of Google Earth), looking around the area. With permission from the fine folks at Google, here are a few glimpses at development in southwest Florida. (26 photos total)</p><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj0OnIXbz7OmXkCOoKvxnfSpo5C1dti9lxVoPtOlGj5mnXIlze0QlMRKYiyNfQHjYIhrnS3OQYbNRE71i8rQ8HOSP4SO0ZLykqgq2s7Bxa0T1NGWmf9ztO0kgZdujQZG0oe6axbGw/s1600/google+earth.jpg"><img style="TEXT-ALIGN: center; MARGIN: 0px auto 10px; WIDTH: 400px; DISPLAY: block; HEIGHT: 259px; CURSOR: hand" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5523420221583018194" border="0" alt="" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj0OnIXbz7OmXkCOoKvxnfSpo5C1dti9lxVoPtOlGj5mnXIlze0QlMRKYiyNfQHjYIhrnS3OQYbNRE71i8rQ8HOSP4SO0ZLykqgq2s7Bxa0T1NGWmf9ztO0kgZdujQZG0oe6axbGw/s400/google+earth.jpg" /></a></blockquote><blockquote><strong>section of a partially built residential project with only two houses in place, near Fort Myers, Florida</strong>. Map. (© Google) </blockquote><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg4xar8DCci88XdK4vUIGGjIyjMBniCAfTbcL87zUYv5DzS-HyfbKG8K2q2Kzy-OPKZ7peohJyXTggtUKCq-QkYmTRcGMOB_MdUU5txAV7yCAcuR3NrHX7w-FfnNVdD6kv-Llh3lw/s1600/google+earth+2.jpg"><img style="TEXT-ALIGN: center; MARGIN: 0px auto 10px; WIDTH: 400px; DISPLAY: block; HEIGHT: 257px; CURSOR: hand" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5523430958503651618" border="0" alt="" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg4xar8DCci88XdK4vUIGGjIyjMBniCAfTbcL87zUYv5DzS-HyfbKG8K2q2Kzy-OPKZ7peohJyXTggtUKCq-QkYmTRcGMOB_MdUU5txAV7yCAcuR3NrHX7w-FfnNVdD6kv-Llh3lw/s400/google+earth+2.jpg" /></a> <blockquote><strong>A partially-developed community near Charlotte harbor, north of Fort Myers, Florida</strong></blockquote><p>Probably a "quiet" neighborhood......Click <a href="http://www.boston.com/bigpicture/2010/09/human_landscapes_in_sw_florida.html">here</a> to see the rest of some stunning images.....<br /><br /><em>Immerhin dürfte es in diesen Fällen nicht gerade häufig zu Nachbarschaftsstreitigkeiten kommen.....Bitte </em><a href="http://www.boston.com/bigpicture/2010/09/human_landscapes_in_sw_florida.html"><em>hier</em></a><em> klicken um die restlichen zum Teil atemberaubenden Aufnahmen zu sehen.....</em> </p>jmfhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07573793835441139826noreply@blogger.com34tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-30868010.post-11839764201198760862010-09-20T21:51:00.000-07:002010-09-29T03:36:16.500-07:00Quotes Albert Edwards, Bill Buckler, Alan Greenspan,William Buiter, Mr Mantega ( Brazil’s Finance Minister ), Ben Davies & Ambrose Evans-PritchardCannot believe that i´m quoting Greenspan without making the usual jokes about his "wisdom"......... ;-)<br /><br /><em>Fast unheimlich das man mal ohne Häme Greenspan zitieren kann...... ;-)</em> <p align="center"><img src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg_eunGrqHUReC0X19HsUSsAxAfXKJSgMi84PZHeWR693pHdo_XetGb8yA_5RyfegFBKQtHYlhFzrM7K9dPv9SbGQbeuhzlfn0vtGTZNCrPIxMC8yUZAf8l3j36FEyl2yFIfJoX5Q/s1600/levergared+planet+nyt.jpg" /></p><a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/article/albert-edwards-terminal-competitive-devaluation-nuclear-option-and-how-feds-policies-may-sta">Albert Edwards</a> via ZH<br /><blockquote><strong>Central bankers, by pursuing policies that allowed the middle classes to borrow against rising asset prices, kept them consuming despite the stagnation of their incomes and hence disguised the effect of government policies that allowed the rich to acquire virtually all of the gains in GDP growth.<br /></strong><br /><strong>And in the process of “robbing” the middle classes and now still attempting to keep asset prices artificially high, they are also robbing our children of the ability to buy a house at an affordable price. Yet central bankers still see QE as key to maintaining the illusion of prosperity and stoking consumer spending</strong></blockquote><a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/article/bill-buckler-discusses-last-price-standing-true-money-answers-only-question-relevant-gold-bu">Bill Buckler</a> via ZH <blockquote><strong>"Ninety-seven percent of all existing Treasury debt has been created since August 15, 1971! Ninety-three percent of it has been created since Mr Volcker “saved” the paper Dollar in late 1979! Please note that the gain in Treasuries and the loss in the US Dollar almost exactly cancel out.<br /></strong><br />Please note also that even the biggest gain in these paper markets fades into insignificance against Gold’s rise."And here is the answer all the "gold bugs" have been waiting for: "<strong>The paper money “price” of Gold will last as long as the attempt to make paper money “work” lasts. In the end, Gold will no longer have a “price” because it has reverted to its role as MONEY.</strong> Whenever and wherever that happens, that nation can return to the production of wealth - rather than “money”."</blockquote><a href="http://www.thereformedbroker.com/2010/09/18/alan-goldspan/">Alan Greenspan</a> via The Reformed Broker <blockquote>Mr. Greenspan replied that he’d thought a lot about gold prices over the years and decided the <strong>supply and demand explanations treating gold like other commodities “simply don’t pan out,”</strong> as Mr. Malpass characterized Mr. Greenspan. “<strong>He’d concluded that gold is simply different</strong>,” Mr. Malpass wrote. At one point Mr. Greenspan spoke of how, during World War II, the Allies going into North Africa found gold was insisted on in the payment of bribes. Said the former Fed chairman: “<strong>If all currencies are moving up or down together, the question is: relative to what? Gold is the canary in the coal mine. It signals problems with respect to currency markets.</strong> Central banks should pay attention to it.”</blockquote><a href="http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2010/09/17/345801/no-sovereign-is-safe/">William Buiter</a> via FT Alphaville<br /><blockquote>…even the fiscally best-positioned G7 countries, Germany and Canada, face major fiscal challenges. <strong>Germany would not be able to join the Euro Area today if it were not a member already</strong>,<strong> because it fails to meet the deficit criterion</strong> (no more than 3% of GDP) and the debt criterion (no more than 60% of GDP) – in the case of the public debt to GDP ratio, by a significant and growing margin. <strong>Indeed, the aggregate Euro Area fails both criteria by wide margins, and of the 16 individual member states, only Luxembourg and Finland qualify on both criteria…</strong></blockquote>With QE 2.0 now finally on the table & spreading <a href="http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2010/09/23/350641/the-great-race-to-the-bottom/?updatedcontent=1">"competitive devaluations"</a> ( timing wasn´t bad... see Update)around the globe i think you should give the Ludwig von Mises reference via <a href="http://immobilienblasen.blogspot.com/2010/08/quotes-edward-hugh-john-hussman-andy.html">John Hussman</a> a second look....<br /><br /><em>Da ja nun auch endlich offiziell QE 2.0 angekündigt worden ist und weltweit ein </em><a href="http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2010/09/23/350641/the-great-race-to-the-bottom/?updatedcontent=1"><em>finaler Abwertungswettlauf </em></a><em>( Timing hätte schlechter sein können...siehe Update )in Sachen Währungen um sich greift ( und dabei rasant an Fahrt gewinnt ) kann es nicht schaden noch einmal einen Blick auf das Ludwig von Mises Zitat via </em><a href="http://immobilienblasen.blogspot.com/2010/08/quotes-edward-hugh-john-hussman-andy.html"><em>John Hussman</em></a><em> zu werfen....<br /><br /></em><strong>UPDATE:<br /></strong><br /><a href="http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/ambroseevans_pritchard/8026324/Gold-is-the-final-refuge-against-universal-currency-debasement.html">Ambrose Evans-Pritchard</a> Telegraph <blockquote><strong>States accounting for two-thirds of the global economy are either holding down their exchange rates by direct intervention or steering currencies lower in an attempt to shift problems on to somebody else, each with their own plausible justification. Nothing like this has been seen since the 1930s. </strong></blockquote><a href="http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2010/09/27/353741/a-hold-out-in-the-devaluation-wars/">Brazil’s finance minister Mr Mantega</a> via FT Alphaville<br /><blockquote><strong>Mr Mantega, Brazil’s finance minister,</strong> <strong>declared earlier this month that the Brazilian real was caught up in ‘a silent war’ in currency markets, as nations compete to speed up their economic recoveries by putting their exporters at an advantage…</strong></blockquote><a href="http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2010/09/28/354756/25-currency-interventions-in-a-one-week-band/?updatedcontent=1">Ben Davies</a> Ft Alphaville <blockquote><strong>Within a single week 25 nations have deliberately slashed the values of their currencies. Nothing quite comparable with this has ever happened before in the history of the world. This world monetary earthquake</strong> will carry many lessons. </blockquote>Got <a href="http://immobilienblasen.blogspot.com/2010/07/special-gold-report-in-gold-we-trust.html">GOLD</a> ? ;-)jmfhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07573793835441139826noreply@blogger.com6tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-30868010.post-49962016445157279032010-09-20T01:41:00.000-07:002010-09-29T21:57:00.134-07:00Junk Bond Covenants Less Strigend Than Their Previous Junk Deals.....Let´s be generous and call this kind of datapoint "frothy"...... ;-) Make sure you take a closer look at the stunning example provided in the update at the end of the post........<br /><em></em><br /><em>Höflich formuliert dürften Daten wie diese als "überschäument" durchgehen.... ;-)</em> <em>Verweise in diesem Zusammenhang ausdrücklich auf das Beispile das ich am Ende des Postings im Update verewigt habe.....<br /></em><p align="center"></p><p align="center"><img src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjs1CPDHErlIftelgmeN0zm8uwr43kIJ-SvXBfXtSD_ZsH79uS1Eo9RVn9fdTqHbRaWOMCjJZU92HuGLprp4f1DNAmqnuFXSEF7DAZcdRn7hp1XIJHhM_yjACnbMasI-dcEmKsCvg/s400/cartoon+amnesia.gif" /></p><a href="http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704416904575502181908674958.html?mod=WSJEUROPE_hpp_LEFTTopWhatNews">Bond Markets Get Riskier </a>WSJ<br /><blockquote>One of the worrisome developments is occurring in the junk-bond market, where companies are taking advantage of strong demand to <strong>sell bonds that have fewer protections for investors than similar bonds sold by the companies in years past.</strong><br /><br />Some have watered down covenants, which are supposed to protect investors if a company is sold and prevent companies from loading on too much other debt or paying out their cash, which would cause a drop in value of the bonds or make it less likely the bonds they hold would get paid off.<br /><br /><strong>Fifty-seven percent of junk-bond issuers had less-stringent covenants than their previous junk deals,</strong> according to an analysis for The Wall Street Journal by Covenant Review which analyzed 58 junk bonds issued in 2010 by companies that previously had issued debt. <strong>Just one deal had stronger covenants for investors.</strong> Some 41% of the deals had the same covenants.<br /><br /><strong>"It reflects a weakening in covenant protections even below those existing at the peak of the market, in 2006 and 2007," Alexander Dill said in a May report from Moody's. </strong></blockquote><a href="http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/dd2f4000-c421-11df-b827-00144feab49a.html">Junk bond prices hit pre-crisis levels</a> FT<br /><br /><blockquote><strong>Strong investor demand for junk bonds has pushed the average price on such corporate debt to its highest level since June 2007</strong>, when companies could borrow with ease at the height of the credit boom.<br /><br />The Bank of America Merrill Lynch index used by many investors to track the junk bond market – bonds sold by companies with credit ratings below investment grade – rose last week above 100 for the first time since the start of the credit crunch.<br /><br /><strong>Dealogic, the data provider, said junk bonds sold to US investors so far in 2010 reached $168bn (€129bn) last week. This is more than was marketed in the whole of 2009, when the $164bn total set a record.<br /></strong><br />Mr Fridson said the average spread was 625 basis points over US Treasuries, still far above the level of June 2007, when spreads reached lows of close to 250bp.</blockquote>In general i agree with the following statement and especially the headline "desperately seeking income" .... But signs of some kind of "serious excess" are clearly growing on a daily basis.....<br /><br /><em>Trotz allem kann man zumindest den Run in Sachen Unternehmesanleihen mehr als nachvollziehen.... Denke besonders die Überschrift "Einkommen verzweifelt gesucht" trifft den Nagel auf den Kopf..... Die Warnhinweise für eine gewisse "Sorglosigkeit" wachsen tagtäglich..... </em><br /><br /><a href="http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2010/09/17/345826/desperately-seeking-income/">Desperately seeking income</a> FT Alphaville<br /><blockquote>...<strong>because corporate credit represents an attractive middle ground between equities and government bonds for income hungry investors<br /></strong><br /><strong>One can, of course, question the wisdom of piling into junk but given the paucity of alternatives it is understandable.</strong></blockquote><br /><p align="center"><img src="http://av.r.ftdata.co.uk/files/2010/09/AUM-of-US-ETFs-UBS.jpg" /></p>Things could really be getting "interesting" if the composition shifts away from the "refinancing" aka "extend & pretend" part..... I´m also sceptical that the markets have finally realised that this is <a href="http://www.clevelandfed.org/research/commentary/2010/2010-11-1.gif">"Not Your Father´s Recovery"</a> & the deleveraging cycle is still in the first inning ( see <a href="http://immobilienblasen.blogspot.com/2010/07/clevelend-fed-one-measure-of-corporate.html">Clevelend Fed "One Measure Of Corporate Leverage Recently Reached A New Historical High"</a> ) .....<br /><br /><em>Denke das spätetstens wenn eine Verschiebung weg vom Refinanzierungs bzw "Extend & Pretend" </em><em>Segment zu beobachten ist, die ganze Angelegenheit recht schnell mehr als "ungemütlich" zu werden droht....Bin mir zudem ziemlich sicher das der Markt noch immer nicht realisiert hat das die bisherige Erholung historisch gesehen nicht gerade <a href="http://www.clevelandfed.org/research/commentary/2010/2010-11-1.gif">"eindrucksvoll</a> ausgefallen ist und das entgegen der täglichen Meldungen slebst bei den Firmen die "Entschuldungsphase" noch nicht wirklich aus dem Startblock gekommen ist ( siehe <a href="http://immobilienblasen.blogspot.com/2010/07/clevelend-fed-one-measure-of-corporate.html">Clevelend Fed "One Measure Of Corporate Leverage Recently Reached A New Historical High"</a> )....</em><em><br /><br /></em><a href="http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2010/09/16/345311/junk-windfall/">Junk windfall</a> Moody´s via FT Alphaville <p><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgSbrzwIL8drMoJLVl1UBGlWy1LJfegl5qQuIENWCA6OrK_hQmqmpAXPfR31yVI5xBw_bp5Zxd3B-dRpvQcRBbHcNsob9R471z_dv6QqnOzG6QtsQHExDoDu0vXRgfvjeD7Zb11tQ/s1600/junk+proceeds.png"><img style="TEXT-ALIGN: center; MARGIN: 0px auto 10px; WIDTH: 525px; DISPLAY: block; HEIGHT: 258px; CURSOR: hand" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5518924768119608658" border="0" alt="" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgSbrzwIL8drMoJLVl1UBGlWy1LJfegl5qQuIENWCA6OrK_hQmqmpAXPfR31yVI5xBw_bp5Zxd3B-dRpvQcRBbHcNsob9R471z_dv6QqnOzG6QtsQHExDoDu0vXRgfvjeD7Zb11tQ/s400/junk+proceeds.png" /></a><br />Wouldn´t surprise me if the topic <a href="http://immobilienblasen.blogspot.com/search/label/i%20want%20my%20buyback%20back">I Want My Buyback Back....</a> will be again on the agenda within 12-24 months....<br /><br /><em>Würde mich nicht wundern wenn das Thema <a href="http://immobilienblasen.blogspot.com/search/label/i%20want%20my%20buyback%20back">I Want My Buyback Back....</a> binnen absehbarer Zeit erneut zu zweifelhaften Ruhm kommen wird.....</em><br /><br /><strong>UPDATE:</strong> <p><a href="http://dealbook.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/09/29/private-equity-thrives-again-but-dark-shadows-loom/?ref=business">NYT DealBook</a><br /></p><blockquote>THIS summer, executives from the New York-based private equity firm SK Capital traveled to Houston to celebrate the first anniversary of their acquisition of a nylon manufacturing business. Soon they will have a bigger reason to uncork the Champagne.<br /><br /><strong>The nylon manufacturer has announced plans to issue about $1 billion in debt, of which $922 million will be used to pay a dividend to SK. For SK, which paid $50 million in cash for the business, that is an astonishing almost 18-fold return in a little more than a year.</strong></blockquote>jmfhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07573793835441139826noreply@blogger.com5tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-30868010.post-8244341319256188652010-09-15T01:30:00.000-07:002010-09-17T01:21:43.567-07:00Better Late Than Never.... AngloGold Ashanti De-Hedging Edition.....At least we now know why GOLD has <a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh3UjnSpd3mrCWHND_ACbjco0gIGf25iMsUgNkE7Jgeq5G0P1ZQKflliWjpVazko7EveONhCoPMhUhpsk0WFHNvBy_4wSmHeCuWBOEs1xCQgUZhEaqB0CS8F9q9TIitf7lnXXui/s1600/golddaily13.PNG">spiked</a> yesterday to a new high...... Stunning that John Paulson as the largest shareholder with a 12.1 percent stake and one of the biggest GOLD investors out there didn´t pressure the management to eliminate the hedges way earlier..... Maybe management should have (re)read the <a href="http://immobilienblasen.blogspot.com/2010/07/special-gold-report-in-gold-we-trust.html"><strong>Special Gold Report "In Gold We Trust" - Erste Group</strong></a> <strong>(!)</strong> ....;-) Looking at the chart & as a contrarian i think it´s safe to say that at least one tiny factor driving GOLD will have almost no effect from 2011 on.....On the other hand i don´t know anybody investing in GOLD because of "de-hedging"....<br /><br /><em>Damit hätten wir auch den Grund warum GOLD ausgerechnet gestern einen <a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh3UjnSpd3mrCWHND_ACbjco0gIGf25iMsUgNkE7Jgeq5G0P1ZQKflliWjpVazko7EveONhCoPMhUhpsk0WFHNvBy_4wSmHeCuWBOEs1xCQgUZhEaqB0CS8F9q9TIitf7lnXXui/s1600/golddaily13.PNG">gewaltigen Satz</a> gemacht hat.....Das ausgerechnet John Paulson als einer der weltweit größten Goldinvestoren mit 12,1% größter Einzelaktionör ist, und nicht massiv auf das Managment eingewirkt hat bereits in den vergangenen Jahren die zum Teil lächerlichen Hedgingpositionen wesentlich schneller zu eliminieren, würde mir als Investor in einem der Paulson Fonds mehr als übel aufstossen....... CEO & CFO hätten beizeiten mal wieder einen Blick in den </em><a href="http://immobilienblasen.blogspot.com/2010/07/special-gold-report-in-gold-we-trust.html"><em><strong>Special Gold Report "In Gold We Trust" - Erste Group</strong></em></a><em> <strong>(!) </strong>werfen sollen... ;-) Mit Blick auf den nächsten Chart dürfte ziemlich klar werden das ab 2011 ein wenn auch winziger Treiber für den Goldpreis wegfallen dürfte....Auf der anderen Seite ist mir kein einziger GOLDinvestor bekannt der ausgerechnet wegen des Themas "De-Hedging" bullish gewesen ist.... ;-) </em><br /><p align="center"><img src="http://av.r.ftdata.co.uk/files/2010/09/gold-hedging.jpg" /></p>H/T <a href="http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2010/09/15/343526/the-gold-de-hedging-effect-is-back/?updatedcontent=1">FT Alphaville</a><br /><br /><a href="http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=20100915071214PF596">Anglogold Ld</a> <blockquote><strong>During 2009, AngloGold Ashanti continued to execute its strategy to reduce its outstanding gold hedging position, which resulted in its decision to acceleratethe settlement of certain outstanding gold hedging positions</strong>. These accelerated settlements, together with the normal scheduled deliveries and maturities of other gold derivatives positions during 2009 and the first half of 2010, <strong>reduced the total committed ounces from 5.99 million ounces as at 31 December 2008 to 3.22 million ounces as at 30 June 2010 and to 2.72 million ounces as at 14 September 2010.<br /></strong><br />AngloGold Ashanti estimates that its current residual hedging position would likely result in it realising an effective discount to the gold spot price of approximately 6-11% until 2014 and an effective discount of less than 1% in 2015 if the hedge book were not restructured, assuming an annual production of 5.0 million ounces and a spot price of between US$950 and US$1,450 per ounce.<br /><br /><strong>AngloGold Ashanti intends to effectively eliminate all its remaining gold hedging position by early 2011<br /></strong><br /><strong>Due to the low committed prices under its current hedge contracts (at an average price of less than US$450 per ounce)</strong> relative to the current market price, the elimination of AngloGold Ashanti's hedging arrangements will require a significant capital commitment.<br /><br /><strong>As at 30 June 2010, the negative marked-to-market value of all hedge transactions making up AngloGold Ashanti's hedge position was approximately US$2.41 billion.</strong></blockquote><a href="http://immobilienblasen.blogspot.com/2010/07/special-gold-report-in-gold-we-trust.html">Special Gold Report "In Gold We Trust" - Erste Group Topic De-hedging</a><br /><blockquote><p><strong>At the end of 2009 the hedged position of gold miners amounted to almost 8mn ounces (i.e.close to 250 tonnes).</strong> Barrick Gold reduced its hedge book dramatically. The Canadian market leader has cut its hedged positions by 5.3mn ounces (165 tonnes). In order to fund this strategy, the company increased its capital by USD 4bn and also issued USD 1bn worth of bonds. Barrick’s hedged positions had seen a high of more than 20mn ounces. </p><p><strong>AngloGold and Ashanti account for the majority (i.e. close to 45%) of the existing positions.</strong> </p><p>We expect dehedging demand to gradually decrease and believe that in the long run the gold industry may shift towards hedging again so as to ensure that major projects can be planned with a certain level of accuracy.</p></blockquote>Judging from the daily headlines on <a href="http://immobilienblasen.blogspot.com/search/label/sovereign%20debt">this topic</a> i think down the road even this horrible timing will be viewed much more favourably.....<br /><br /><em>Wenn man allerdings die tagtäglichen Meldungen zu </em><a href="http://immobilienblasen.blogspot.com/search/label/sovereign%20debt"><em>diesem Thema</em></a><em> betrachtet, bestehen gute Chancen das selbst dieses üble Timing zukünftig "wohlwollend" in der Betrachtung wegkommen wird.....</em>jmfhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07573793835441139826noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-30868010.post-81998095225131488662010-09-14T03:26:00.000-07:002010-09-14T06:17:10.739-07:00Interesting Irish National Debt Stats......Stunning....If you want to put a positive spin on it one can argue that there is a lot of room for improvement for the Irish to boost their share.... Of course only if the ECB is willing to slow down their ongoing buying "frenzy" ;-) For more charts click <a href="http://www.ntma.ie/NationalDebt/levelOfDebt.php">here</a><br /><br /><em>Positiv formuliert bleibt da für die Irischen Mitbürger, Banken und Versicherungen noch viel Luft nach oben.....Natürlich nur für den Fall das sich die EZB in den nächsten Jahren mit Ihren Käufen zurückhält....;-) Für mehr Charts in Sachen Irland und Staatsverschuldung bitte <a href="http://www.ntma.ie/NationalDebt/levelOfDebt.php">hier</a> klicken....</em><br /><p align="center"><img src="http://av.r.ftdata.co.uk/files/2010/09/Irish_debt.jpg" /></p><a href="http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2010/09/14/341491/irish-government-debt-needs-you/">Irish government debt needs you</a> Barclays Capital’s Laurent Fransolet via FT Alphaville<br /><blockquote><p>In common with a number of other countries, one of the problems Ireland has faced is the limited domestic investor base for its debt. There is only limited data on who owns the Irish debt. On the domestic side, the Irish central bank has detailed data on holders… <strong>Only 15% of the debt is held domestically (the lowest proportion in the euro area), and domestic buyers have not stepped up their purchases recently, in contrast to a number of other euro area countries (eg, Spain, Portugal).<br /></strong><br /><strong>…Irish domestic banks own just €8.5bn of the debt, compared with balance sheets of about €700bn<br /></strong><br />Similarly, <strong>insurance companies and pension funds hold just €3-4bn of Irish government bonds, compared with total fixed income assets of €66bn.</strong> These low domestic holdings probably reflect the fact that for a long time, Irish debt was scarce and low yielding, and thus shunned by domestic investors. We think it also shows that in a way, there is potential for more domestic buying, even if these changes in investment policies can take time.<br /><br />To have an idea of who owns this external debt, we utilise a number of sources. First, we take into account the ECB Securities Markets Programme buying (SMP): in total, about €61bn of Greek, Irish and Portuguese securities have been bought by the ECB. We believe the majority was Greek debt, with the rest slightly skewed in favour of Irish debt (say 15bn to 20bn). </p><p><strong>Overall, we assume 30% of the ECB SMP buying has been in Irish debt (€18bn – the SMP likely makes the ECB the biggest single debt holder of Ireland, Portugal and Greece).</strong></p></blockquote>Read the last paragraph twice & ( even if i have to repeat myself over and over again ) the <a href="http://immobilienblasen.blogspot.com/2010/07/joke-of-day-from-ecbs-smaghi-more.html">Joke Of The Day From ECB´s Smaghi "€ More Stable Than Deutsche Mark" </a>is getting even more "funny".... ;-)<br /><br /><em>Lasst den letzten Absatz in aller Ruhe nocheinmal Revue passieren und (ich wiederhole mich da gerne) der </em><a href="http://immobilienblasen.blogspot.com/2010/07/joke-of-day-from-ecbs-smaghi-more.html"><em>Witz des Tages von Smaghi das der "€ stabiler als die DM ist"</em></a><em> nur noch witziger... ;-)<br /></em><em></em><blockquote>Importantly… Ireland built up a lot of cash deposits in 2008, which it could run down more than €10bn if market access remains limited/too expensive. <strong>With monthly cash deficits of about €1.5bn</strong>, limited bills redemptions (€2.75bn in Q1 11) and no bond redemption until November 2011 (€4.4bn), Ireland is not under severe pressure to issue large amounts for meeting cash needs. As such, the NTMA confirmed on 9 September that Ireland was fully funded until next June, which is our assessment as well, if Ireland decided to run down its cash balances entirely (although we suspect it will want to keep some cash buffer to hand).</blockquote>Put the € 18 billion ECB number since March 2010 into perspective with the monthly cash deficit of only € 1.5 billion.... All this in the name of "tightening the<em> unrealistic</em> high spreads vs BUNDS"...... Spin at its best....<strong>UPDATE:</strong> <a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSWLA292620100914">Irish banks' ECB loans rise to 95.1 bln euros</a><br /><br /><em>Die ganze Sache wird dadurch nicht weniger witzig wenn man die geschätzten 18 Mrd € die die EZB seit März 2010 aufgekauft hat ins Verhätltnis zu dem monatlichen Cash Defizit von 1,5 Mrd € setzt..... Und all das läuft noch immer unter dem Motto "die unrealistischen hohen Renditeaufschläge vs den BUNDS mit dem Marktbild der EU / Politiker / EZB in Einklang zu bringen "..... Mir würden da haufenweise treffendere Begriffe einfallen.... <strong>UPDATE:</strong> <a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSWLA292620100914">Irish banks' ECB loans rise to 95.1 bln euros</a><br /></em><br />Got <a href="http://immobilienblasen.blogspot.com/2010/07/special-gold-report-in-gold-we-trust.html">GOLD</a> ? ;-)jmfhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07573793835441139826noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-30868010.post-89513473347875571952010-09-06T22:23:00.000-07:002010-09-08T09:33:51.360-07:00How Not To Restore Confidence "Stress Test Edition"......The main goal from "stress testing" the banks was to provide at least some confidence....There is now a good chance that this "PR Stunt" could backfire faster than even i predicted .....I´m not surprised that the rules for transparency were not "rigoros".... No wonder <a href="http://immobilienblasen.blogspot.com/2010/07/only-35-of-survey-participants-expect.html">Only 35% Of Survey Participants Expect The Stess Test To Be Credible.... </a>...<br /><br /><em>Wenn man bedenkt das die einzige Aufgabe des Stress Test gewesen ist zumindest ein Mindestmaß an Vertrauen wiederherzustellen muß man so langsam befürchten das selbst dieses Mindestziel in Rekordzeit verfehlt wird..... Ich persönlich wundere mich nicht das die "Transparenzanforderungen" in Sachen Stress Test nicht "brutalst möglich" angesetzt worden sind......Kein Wunder das </em><a href="http://immobilienblasen.blogspot.com/2010/07/only-35-of-survey-participants-expect.html"><em>bereits bei Durchführung lediglich 35% der Befragten dem Stress Test "Glaubwürdigkeit" zugestanden haben....</em></a><em> </em><br /><br /><p align="center"><img border="0" hspace="0" alt="[EUSTRESS]" src="http://sg.wsj.net/public/resources/images/P1-AX101A_EUSTR_NS_20100906180015.gif" width="381" height="259" xloc="50" yloc="1405" /></p><a href="http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704392104575475520949440394.html">Europe's Bank Stress Tests Minimized Debt Risk </a>WSJ<br /><br /><blockquote><p><strong>Europe's recent "stress tests" of the strength of major banks understated some lenders' holdings of potentially risky government debt</strong>, a Wall Street Journal analysis shows.<br /><br />As part of the tests, 91 of Europe's largest banks were required to reveal how much government debt from European countries they held on their balance sheets. Regulators said the figures showed banks' total holdings of that debt as of March 31.</p><p><strong>An examination of the banks' disclosures indicates that some banks didn't provide as comprehensive a picture of their government-debt holdings as regulators claimed.</strong></p><p><strong>Some banks excluded certain bonds, and many reduced the sums to account for "short" positions they held—facts that neither regulators nor most banks disclosed when the test results were published in late July.<br /></strong><br />Because of the limited nature of most banks' disclosures, it is impossible to gauge the number of banks that excluded portions of their sovereign portfolios from their disclosures, or the overall effect of that practice.<br /><br />But the exposure to government debt of at least some banks, such as Barclays PLC and Crédit Agricole SA, was reduced by a significant amount, according to industry officials and financial filings made by the banks. Adding to the haziness, the stress tests' reported sovereign-debt levels differed, sometimes widely, from other international tallies and from some banks' own financial statements.<br /><br />The stress tests' upbeat results—only seven banks flunked, and were deemed short of just €3.5 billion ($4.51 billion) of capital—initially soothed markets. <strong>But fears have flared up again as heavily indebted countries like Ireland and Greece continue to struggle. Among other warning signs, the costs of insuring many bank and government bonds against default in countries such as Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Italy have jumped above their pre-stress-test levels.<br /></strong><br />The banks based their stress-test disclosures on a template provided by CEBS. The template asked for banks to disclose their "gross" and "net" exposures to sovereign risk in each E.U. country. Most banks' disclosures didn't define "gross" and "net" beyond saying that the latter were "net of collateral held and hedges."<br /><br />But some banks' figures didn't represent their total holdings. <strong>Barclays, for example, excluded some government bonds it was holding for trading purposes.</strong> The rationale, according to Barclays officials, was that the bonds were directly related to transactions the big U.K. bank was performing for corporate or government clients, and that the holdings vary widely from day to day. Barclays didn't disclose that it wasn't listing its full holdings.<br /><br />Excluding the bonds reduced Barclays' portfolio of Italian sovereign debt—which the bank said was £787 million ($1.22 billion)—by about £4.7 billion, Barclays officials said. The bank's holdings of Spanish government bonds, listed at £4.4 billion, shrank by about £1.6 billion.<br /><br />The Barclays officials said they believe other big European banks also excluded significant slices of their trading portfolios from stress-test disclosures.<br /><br /><strong>In its midyear results last month, Barclays reported its sovereign-bond portfolios based on a broader definition than the stress tests used. As a result, Barclays' reported holdings of debt issued by the Italian, Spanish and Irish governments swelled.<br /></strong><br />BIS data from March 31 indicates that French banks were holding about €20 billion of Greek sovereign debt and €35 billion of Spanish sovereign debt. In the stress tests, four French banks, which represent nearly 80% of the assets in France's banking system, reported holding a total of €11.6 billion of Greek government debt and €6.6 billion of Spanish debt.</p></blockquote>Keep in mind that the even the most adverse scenario of the Stress Test didn´t include any hair cut on sovereign debt....Too bad that only 6 weeks later the market is already pricing in a restructuring of Greek Debt ( <a href="http://immobilienblasen.blogspot.com/2010/09/greek-debt-crisis-apocalypse-later.html">Greek Debt Crisis – Apocalypse Later </a>)<br /><br /><em>Man sollte villeicht nocheinmal gesondert darauf hinweisen das selbst im schlimmsten anzunehmen Fall der "Strees Test" keinerlei Abschlag bei Staatsanleihen vorsieht....Dumm nur, das bereits 6 Woche nach Durchführung der Markt bereits zum Teil massive Abschläge eingepreist hat ( siehe <a href="http://immobilienblasen.blogspot.com/2010/09/greek-debt-crisis-apocalypse-later.html">Greek Debt Crisis – Apocalypse Later </a>)</em><br /><br /><a href="http://www.automatedtrader.net/real-time-news/55695/eu-rehn-other-14-emu-members-to-cover-slovakia-greece-loans">EU Rehn: Other 14 EMU Members To Cover Slovakia Greece Loans</a><br /><br /><blockquote><strong>The other 14 Eurozone countries will cover Slovakia's share of the E110 billion loan package to Greece after the country refused to participate</strong>, European Commissioner for Economic and Monetary Affairs, Olli Rehn said on Tuesday.<br /><br /><strong>Slovakia originally agreed to participate in the E110 billion aid package for debt-laden Greece, but a new Slovak government decided to withdraw that commitment</strong></blockquote><a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/article/domino-2-ireland-set-topple">Domino #2, Ireland, Set To Topple?</a> ZH<br /><br /><blockquote><strong>The Irish-Bund spread is going nuts on reports that the ECB is bidding up sovereign debt once again,</strong> together with a WSJ report that the Stress Test was, as everyone with half a brain knew all too well, a blatant lie, and sovereign debt was misrepresented. Earlier, a report in the FT Deutschland suggested that the bailout of Anglo Irish alone, (not to mention AIB and Irish Nationwide) would be sufficient to threaten the country's solvency. Things domestically are no better, after <strong>a poll in the Sunday Independent found that 74% of respondents believed the country would default, and preceded earlier news that Irish consumer confidence plunged from 66.2 to 61.4. </strong></blockquote><p><a href="http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2010/09/07/336206/mmm-european-yield-stew/?updatedcontent=1">Mmm, European yield stew</a> FT Alphaville </p><p align="center"><img src="http://av.r.ftdata.co.uk/files/2010/09/Europeripherals_Nomura.jpg" /></p><a href="http://thestory.ie/2010/09/08/those-bond-markets-and-irish-debt/">Those bond markets and Irish debt</a> Superb Video<br /><br /><a href="http://noir.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aOdJhjpLyiVk&pos=1">Greek Deals Hidden From EU Probed as 400% Yield Gap Shows Doubt </a>Bloomberg<br /><blockquote>Sept. 8 (Bloomberg) -- <strong>Four months after the 110 billion- euro ($140 billion) bailout for Greece, the nation still hasn’t disclosed the full details of secret financial transactions </strong>it used to conceal debt.<br /><br /><strong>“We have not seen the real documents,”</strong> Walter Radermacher, head of the European Union’s statistics agency Eurostat, said in a Sept. 2 interview in his Luxembourg office. <strong>Eurostat first requested the contracts in February</strong>.</blockquote><a href="http://www.vanityfair.com/business/features/2010/10/greeks-bearing-bonds-201010?printable=true">Beware of Greeks Bearing Bonds</a> Michael Lewis / Vanity Fair<br /><blockquote>As Wall Street hangs on the question “Will Greece default?,” the author heads for riot-stricken Athens, and for the mysterious Vatopaidi monastery, which brought down the last government, laying bare the country’s economic insanity. <strong>But beyond a $1.2 trillion debt (roughly a quarter-million dollars for each working adult),</strong> there is a more frightening deficit. After systematically looting their own treasury, in a breathtaking binge of tax evasion, bribery, and creative accounting spurred on by Goldman Sachs, <strong>Greeks are sure of one thing: they can’t trust their fellow Greeks.</strong></blockquote><br /><a href="http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2010/09/08/337601/cebs-says-the-stress-tests-were-just-fine/?updatedcontent=1">CEBS says the stress tests were JUST FINE</a> FT Alphaville<br /><br />Surprise, surprise....<br /><br /><em>Welch Überraschung....</em><br /><br />Got <a href="http://immobilienblasen.blogspot.com/2010/07/special-gold-report-in-gold-we-trust.html">GOLD</a> ? ;-)jmfhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07573793835441139826noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-30868010.post-48106836148934984332010-09-06T06:20:00.000-07:002010-09-14T07:29:42.788-07:00Bank Run "Kabul Edition"......Should be no surprise that the name KARZAI is popping up again..... Some folks have learned quite a lot from us ( US & Europe ) when it comes to the play the "Bailout / Moral Hazard Game"...If this wouldn´t be so depressing one could almost "congratulate" the "fraudsters" for recognizing that this bank is definitely TBTF.... :-(<br /><br /><em>Das hier erneut der Name KARZAI auftaucht dürfte wohl nur noch die Bundesregierung überraschen..... ;-) Bei dem seit Jahren anhaltendem "Anschauungsunterricht" ( besondern in den USA & Europe ) wenig verwunderlich das praktisch weltweit das Thema "Bailout / Moral Hazard" ständig kopiert und wie in diesem Fall besonders "brilliant" gespielt wird...:-( Selten das eine an sich so kleine Bank ohne Zweifel der Kategorie "Too Big To Fail" zuzuordnen ist....</em><br /><br /><object width="853" height="505"><param name="movie" value="http://www.youtube.com/v/rdA86Rb2xDM?fs=1&hl=de_DE"><param name="allowFullScreen" value="true"><param name="allowscriptaccess" value="always"><embed src="http://www.youtube.com/v/rdA86Rb2xDM?fs=1&hl=de_DE" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" allowscriptaccess="always" allowfullscreen="true" width="625" height="385"></embed></object><br /><br /><a href="http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704095704575473650615414666.html?mod=WSJ_hpp_LEFTTopStories#project%3DSLIDESHOW08%26s%3DSB10001424052748703417104575474023432760614%26articleTabs%3Darticle">Afghans Move to Bail Out Kabul Bank </a>WSJ<br /><blockquote>KABUL—Afghanistan's government inched closer to bailing out the country's largest bank, setting aside hundreds of millions of dollars that could be used to keep Kabul Bank solvent, officials said.<br /><br />The move Sunday came as depositors continued to pull their money from the lender, mobbing branches in Kabul and other parts of the country. In the capital, police and soldiers were ordered to guard Kabul Bank branches and razor wire was strung outside the main branch to keep crowds in check.<br /><br />Averting the failure of Afghanistan's largest bank, an institution with ties to President Hamid Karzai's administration, has become a priority for U.S. and Afghan officials concerned by the political and economic crisis that could result.<br /><br />There were conflicting accounts of how much money the Afghan government was preparing to divert to Kabul Bank from its roughly $4.8 billion in foreign-exchange reserves. A central-bank official said the bailout would likely be in the $200 million range; a finance ministry official put the figure "closer to double that."<br /><br />The central-bank official said several options were being discussed to recover the funds that are likely to be pumped into Kabul Bank. One option is forcing major shareholders who bought their stakes with loans from the bank to either repay what they borrowed or hand over their shares.<br /><br />Another option is confiscating properties or businesses bought or built by bank insiders with loans from the lender.<br /><br /><strong>Major shareholders include brothers of President Karzai and First Vice President Muhammad Fahim</strong>, U.S. and Afghan officials say. The "politics are delicate," the central-bank official said.<br /><br /><strong>Finance Minister Omar Zakhilwal said the Afghan government Saturday transferred $100 million dollars to Kabul Bank to cover salaries for about 250,000 soldiers, police and teachers, who are paid through accounts at the lender.<br /></strong><br /><strong>Kabul Bank's woes became public late Tuesday, when word leaked that Afghanistan's central bank had forced out the lender's chairman and chief executive—its two biggest shareholders—amid allegations that they made hundreds of millions of dollars in sometimes-clandestine loans to themselves and Afghan government insiders.<br /></strong><br />U.S. and Afghan officials also say the bank used one of Afghanistan's traditional hawala money-transfer outfits to move hundreds of millions of dollars out of the country in an apparent attempt to avoid detection, though it isn't clear what the money was then used for.<br /><br /><strong>On Wednesday and Thursday, depositors withdrew almost $180 million, more than a third of the $500 million the bank had on hand before the crisis.<br /></strong><br />It isn't clear if Kabul Bank's assets—mostly loans and property—are easily recoverable.</blockquote><a href="http://blogs.reuters.com/felix-salmon/2010/09/02/when-bankers-are-more-dangerous-than-warlords/">When bankers are more dangerous than warlords</a> Felix Salmon<br /><blockquote><strong>Speaking Wednesday from his villa in Dubai, which was paid for by Kabul Bank, Mahmoud Karzai, the president’s brother</strong>, said cash withdrawals from the bank were a “little bit more than usual” but did not threaten to cause a meltdown. A full-scale run on Kabul Bank, he added, “would be a major disaster.”<br /><br /><strong>Yes, the president’s brother is a part owner of the bank, and he’s living in Dubai, in a villa paid for by the bank — which, incidentally, handles the payroll for Afghan soldiers and schoolteachers — and really, what could possibly go wrong?</strong></blockquote><a href="http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2010/09/bill-black-%e2%80%9ccontrol-fraud%e2%80%9d-crushes-kabul-and-the-new-york-times-needs-to-correct-its-correction.html">Bill Black: “Control Fraud” Crushes Kabul</a> NC<br /><blockquote><strong>Kabul Bank has been revealed to be a “control fraud.”</strong> Control frauds occur when those that control a seemingly legitimate entity use it as a “weapon” to defraud. Control frauds cause greater financial losses than all other forms of property crime – combined. Control frauds can also cause immense damage to a nation because they are run by financial elites that curry favor from political elites. The result is that they are often able to loot “their” banks for years with impunity<br /><br /><strong>The CIA tells us that Afghanistan raised roughly $1 billion in revenues last year and expended $3.3 billion. The shortfall, of course, was funded by us (the West, principally the U.S.). Indeed, that understates the case because Afghanistan raised the $1 billion in revenues primarily through customs duties and the U.S. and other Western nations indirectly or directly funded most of those customs duties.</strong><br /><br />We know certain facts.<strong> Afghanistan has no deposit insurance system. Its government has no financial responsibility for bailing out Kabul Bank’s depositors. Nevertheless, Afghanistan’s government has announced it will bail out the depositors. The funds to bail out the depositors will come – indirectly, but surely – largely from the United States Treasury</strong></blockquote><a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2010/09/08/world/asia/08kabul.html?hp">Karzai Family Political Ties Shielded Bank in Afghanistan</a> NYT<br /><br /><blockquote>In early 2009, <strong>as President Hamid Karzai scanned the landscape for potential partners to run in his re-election bid, he was approached from an unusual corner: a bank.<br /></strong><br />After the deal, <strong>Kabul Bank poured millions into Mr. Karzai’s re-election campaign</strong>, Afghan officials said. <strong>Mahmoud Karzai and Haseen Fahim, drawing on Kabul Bank’s resources, were able to enrich their families aided by tens of millions of dollars in loans.<br /></strong><br />“The brothers orchestrated the political deal to serve their business interests,” said a prominent Afghan businessman in Kabul who, like virtually everyone interviewed for this article, spoke only on condition of anonymity. <strong>“Fahim became vice president, and the bank financed Karzai’s re-election.<br /></strong><br /><strong>“In Kabul, politics is all about money,” he said. “It’s the same thing.” </strong></blockquote><a href="http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2010/09/14/342766/lehman-homage-in-afghanistan-of-sorts/?updatedcontent=1">FT Alphaville</a> <blockquote><strong>Afghanistan’s central bank has stepped in to take control of the troubled Kabulbank</strong>, its governor said on Tuesday, after suspected irregularities raised concerns over the country’s top private financial institution.<br /><br />Central Bank Governor Abdul Qadir Fitrat told Reuters <strong>investigations had also been started into the dealings of the bank’s top two directors and shareholders, who were told to resign, and a brother of Afghanistan’s First Vice President, Mohammad Qasim Fahim.</strong></blockquote>jmfhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07573793835441139826noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-30868010.post-10386389907431809982010-09-02T23:28:00.000-07:002010-09-16T11:17:44.520-07:00Greek Debt Crisis – Apocalypse LaterAlmost "shocking" to see a rationale market response.... ;-)<br /><br /><em>Fast "unheimlich" mal eine rationale Marktreaktion zu sehen... ;-)</em><br /><br /><p align="center"><img src="http://blogs.cfr.org/geographics/files/2010/09/2010.9.1.GreeceDefaultCumProb1.jpg" /></p><a href="http://blogs.cfr.org/geographics/2010/09/02/greek-debt-2/">Greek Debt Crisis – Apocalypse Later</a> CFR<br /><br /><blockquote><p><strong>The difference between Greek and German government</strong> <strong>bond yields can be used to estimate the market’s view of the likelihood of a Greek default</strong>. <strong>The chart above shows these probabilities over different time frames on three different dates</strong>. On April 30th, no European plan was yet in place to address the ballooning Greek debt, and default was considered a real possibility in the short term. On May 11th, just after the European Stabilization Mechanism (ESM) was announced, markets sharply cut their view on the odds of default across all time horizons. However, the market’s analysis of the ESM has become much more nuanced since then. <strong>On September 1st, the market’s view of the probability of default within two years was lower than before the ESM was announced, but higher over longer time frames. </strong><br /><br />Greece will happily borrow from the ESM to avoid having to close its primary deficit (that is, excluding interest payments) too rapidly. Yet if Greece is successful in eliminating its primary deficit, its temptation to default will actually grow, as it can wipe out huge amounts of accumulated debt without any longer needing the financial markets to fund current expenditures. <strong>If faced with the choice between paying Greek debts and letting Greece default,</strong> <strong>its northern neighbors may, once their banks are on more solid footing, find it more attractive simply to let Greece default. This is the story line that the markets are now pricing into government bond spreads</strong></p></blockquote><a href="http://noir.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=ay03gtREWpo8&pos=3">Greece Default Risk Is ‘Substantial,’ Pimco’s Bosomworth Says </a><br /><br /><blockquote><strong>“Greece is insolvent,”</strong> Bosomworth, Munich-based head of portfolio management at Pimco, which oversees the world’s largest bond fund, said in a telephone interview today. <strong>“I see it as being quite a substantial risk that Greece eventually defaults or restructures.”<br /></strong><br /><strong>In a best-case scenario, Greece’s government debt will swell to 150 percent of gross domestic product, </strong>Bosomworth said.<br /><br /><strong>“Debt servicing as a share of government revenue will increase substantially</strong>, particularly if current yield levels do not decline,” Bosomworth said. </blockquote><a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/article/greece-sees-%E2%82%AC4-billion-2-deposit-outlflows-july">Greece Sees €4 Billion (2%) In Deposit Outflows In July</a> ZH<br /><br /><blockquote>Outflow troubles continue for the time bomb in Europe's periphery, Greece, whose second default is approaching. The central bank has just reported that in July household and business deposits declined from €216.5 billion to €212.3 billion: so much for the ECB's presence inspiring confidence. So €4 billion a month in deposits taken out, and applying a fractional reserve multiplier, means Greek banks lost another €40 billion in monetary supply in July alone. Deflation + Austerity = Kaboom.</blockquote><a href="http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2010/09/08/336896/nbgs-greek-debt-warning/?updatedcontent=1">National Bank of Greece Greek debt warning</a> FT Alphaville<br /><br /><blockquote><strong>The most denied cash call of recent times has finally happened. Late on Tuesday night National Bank of Greece announced a €2.8bn ‘Comprehensive Capital Strengthening Plan<br /></strong><br />NBG says the equity issue and disposal will ‘create an additional, sizeable capital buffer to face the macro-economic situation in Greece in the short-to-medium term’.<br /><br /><strong>But what does that mean? Could it be that NBG is raising the money to cover a Greek government bond haircut? Very possibly.</strong></blockquote><a href="http://pragcap.com/greece-sounding-very-lehman-ish?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter">GREECE: SOUNDING VERY LEHMAN-ISH</a> Prag Cap<br /><br /><blockquote>If you recall the early stages of the financial crisis there was one glaring trend from the various bank CEO’s and CFO’s – they just couldn’t wait to get on TV with their slogan:<br /><br /><strong>“We are well capitalized.”<br /></strong><br />Of course, that turned out to be a lie as it’s now clear that most banks in the USA were woefully undercapitalized. Today, Greece’s finance minister is out with similar comments:<br /><br /><strong>“Restructuring is not going to happen.</strong> There are much broader implications for the eurozone should Greece have to restructure its debt. People fail to see the costs to both Greece and the eurozone of a restructuring: the cost to its citizens, the cost to its access to markets. If Greece restructures, why on earth would people invest in other peripheral economies? It would be a fundamental break to the unity of the eurozone.”<br /><br /><strong>In other words, “we are well capitalized”. </strong></blockquote><p align="center"><img src="http://pragcap.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/09/eur.png" width="463" height="794" /></p>As i have said from the beginning, the entire bailout stunt wasn´t to help the <a href="http://immobilienblasen.blogspot.com/2010/03/foreigners-holding-75-of-greeces.html">Greek</a>..... Combine this with the latest "Unlimited & Extended" action from the <a href="http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2010/09/02/332761/irelands-exteeeeended-banking-issues/">EU</a>, <a href="http://in.reuters.com/article/idINIndia-51246220100902">ECB</a> & the <a href="http://immobilienblasen.blogspot.com/2010/07/joke-of-day-from-ecbs-smaghi-more.html">Joke Of The Day From ECB´s Smaghi "€ More Stable Than Deutsche Mark" </a>is getting even more "funny".... ;-) Judging from recent <a href="http://immobilienblasen.blogspot.com/2010/08/you-know-you-are-in-trouble-when.html">IMF</a> attempts to desperately broaden their "safety net" it´s almost certain that Greece won´t be alone......In this context headlines like <a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/article/imf-sees-g7-net-debt-200-gdp-2030-441-2050">IMF Sees G7 Net Debt At 200% Of GDP By 2030; 441% By 2050</a> should further boost confidence...."Pray & Delay" seems to be the top priority around the globe... The long term bull case for <a href="http://immobilienblasen.blogspot.com/2010/07/special-gold-report-in-gold-we-trust.html">GOLD</a> isn´t getting weaker on a daily basis....<br /><br /><em>Wie bereits seit Anfang der Krise gesagt ging es weniger um das Wohlergehen der betroffenen </em><a href="http://immobilienblasen.blogspot.com/2010/03/foreigners-holding-75-of-greeces.html"><em>Griechen</em></a><em>..... Wenn man zudem noch die letzten unlimitierten und zeitlich unbegrenzten weiteren Rettungsmaßnahmen der </em><a href="http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2010/09/02/332761/irelands-exteeeeended-banking-issues/"><em>EU</em></a> <em>& </em><a href="http://in.reuters.com/article/idINIndia-51246220100902"><em>ECB</em></a><em> mitberücksichtigt wird der </em><a href="http://immobilienblasen.blogspot.com/2010/07/joke-of-day-from-ecbs-smaghi-more.html"><em>Witz des Tages von Smaghi das der "€ stabiler als die DM ist"</em></a><em> nur noch witziger... ;-) Die neuesten Verrenkungen des </em><a href="http://immobilienblasen.blogspot.com/2010/08/you-know-you-are-in-trouble-when.html"><em>IMF</em></a><em> um das "Sicherheitsnetz" fast um jeden Preis zu erweitern können nur dahingehed gedeutet werden das wir in naher Zukunft etliche "Griechenländer" sehen werden...In diesem Zusammenhang sollte nachfolgende Meldung </em><a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/article/imf-sees-g7-net-debt-200-gdp-2030-441-2050"><em>IMF Sees G7 Net Debt At 200% Of GDP By 2030; 441% By 2050</em></a><em> eine Erklärung geben warum sich die langfristigen Perspektive für </em><a href="http://immobilienblasen.blogspot.com/2010/07/special-gold-report-in-gold-we-trust.html"><em>GOLD</em></a><em> tagtäglich trotz stark gestiegenem Kurs nicht gerade verschlechtern....</em>jmfhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07573793835441139826noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-30868010.post-63959645262348496322010-08-30T22:16:00.000-07:002010-09-02T01:21:03.975-07:00You Know You Are In Trouble When Supersizing A Backup Rescue Facility By Half A Trillion $ Isn´t Enough 4 Month After The Introduction....IMF VersionIn April i wrote at the beginning of the Greece / € Crisis<br /><blockquote>No wonder the IMF has just <a href="http://immobilienblasen.blogspot.com/2010/04/glitch-in-matrix.html">SuperzisedTheir "Backup Rescue Facility" By Half A Trillion </a>( no typo ) for "Contribution To Global Financial Stability"......</blockquote><em>Im April im Angesicht der Griechenland und € Krise schrieb ich </em><br /><em></em><em><blockquote><em>Kein Wunder das "vorsorglich" der IMF die Mittel zur "Stabilisierung" der Sorgenkinder mal eben still und heimlich auf</em><a href="http://immobilienblasen.blogspot.com/2010/04/glitch-in-matrix.html"><em> 500 Mrd $ verzehnfacht hat</em></a><em> ( kein Tipfehler )....</em><br /></blockquote></em><img style="TEXT-ALIGN: center; MARGIN: 0px auto 10px; WIDTH: 335px; DISPLAY: block; HEIGHT: 380px; CURSOR: hand" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5511439741662387906" border="0" alt="" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi5fS1G_LYlamIN6IkOoxCLKDCxyhFQltLXuarekOeg47XSnrcqRiya3dbc4VT1P7Zr7fmLn6OPZCXABra-aW7lbpIwTUR8Q4C59HhAY31leLjolnwQdoHDln3XSiKCjZw3_BkTdg/s400/cartoon+trillion.jpg" />Fast forward to August...... I´m not sure how credible the 1 trillion $ number is but the fact that the IMF is implementing / modifying another credit facility on top of all the existing ones does at least raise eyebrows..... Looks like even "Shock & Awe" isn´t able to stop the flooding.....<br /><br /><em>Hat ja immerhin einige Monate gereicht......</em> <em>Ich habe keine Ahnung wie "belastbar" die genannte Summe von 1 Billion $ für die neuen "Rettungsschirme ist....Wenn man aber bedenkt das bereits wenige Monate nach dem letzten Programm bereits wieder Bedarf an neuen Rettungsschirmen besteht muß man befürchten das besonders im Hinblick auf die Zukunft diese Summe nicht zu hoch gegriffen ist....Schon erstaunlich das selbst diese "aberwitzigen Summen" anscheinend nicht mehr ausreichen zumindest mittelfristig die ständig größer werdenden Problemzonen zu überdecken.....<br /></em><br /><a href="http://noir.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=akL9fKCq3F0A">IMF Changes, Expands Crisis-Prevention Credit Lines </a>Bloomberg<br /><blockquote><strong>Talks are ongoing with member countries to raise the IMF lending capacity to $1 trillion as part of G-20 discussions.<br /></strong><br />John Lipsky, IMF first deputy managing director, told reporters on a conference call today that the institution has enough money to fund the new credit lines. At the same time, he said <strong>he is confident that member countries will continue to demonstrate a commitment for the IMF to have the resources to make the new credit lines “credible and usable.” </strong></blockquote><a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/article/imf-removes-borrowing-cap-rescue-facilities-anticipation-europe-crisis-20-us-prepares-print-">IMF Eliminates Borrowing Cap On Rescue Facility In Anticipation Of Europe Crisis 2.0; US Prepares To Print Fresh Trillions In "Rescue" Linen</a> ZH<br /><blockquote><p>today the IMF announced it "expanded and enhanced its lending tools to help contain the occurrence of financial crises." <strong>As a result, the IMF has as of today extended the duration of its existing Flexible Credit Line (FCL) to two years, concurrently</strong> <strong>removing the borrowing cap on this facility, which previously stood at 1000 percent of a member’s IMF quota, in essence making the FCL a limitless credit facility, to be used to rescue whomever, at the sole discretion of the IMF's overlords. </strong></p><p><strong>Additionally</strong>, as the FCL has some make believe acceptance criteria (and with countries such as Poland, Columbia, and Mexico having had access to it, these must certainly be sky high), <strong>the IMF is introducing a brand new credit facility, the Precautionary Credit Line (PCL), which will be geared for members with "sound policies [which just happen to need an unlimited source of rescue funding] who nevertheless may not meet the FCL’s high qualification requirements." In other words everyone.</strong></p>Lastly, for those lazy readers who always scroll to the very bottom looking for a video clip summarizing all previously said, you are in luck. <strong>Here is the IMF's Reza Moghadam condescending, and blatantly lying to all who care</strong>, as to what the purpose of tonight's "Crisis Prevention Toolkit" expansion is.<br /></blockquote><br /><object id="flashObj" width="486" height="412" classid="clsid:D27CDB6E-AE6D-11cf-96B8-444553540000" codebase="http://download.macromedia.com/pub/shockwave/cabs/flash/swflash.cab#version=9,0,47,0"><param name="movie" value="http://c.brightcove.com/services/viewer/federated_f9?isVid=1" /><param name="bgcolor" value="#FFFFFF" /><param name="flashVars" value="videoId=599609567001&playerID=45533486001&playerKey=AQ%2E%2E,AAAACofWkTk%2E,d-cWVfCeeBH2u4-MzWQrjKX5_f_MoDWg&domain=embed&dynamicStreaming=true" /><param name="base" value="http://admin.brightcove.com" /><param name="seamlesstabbing" value="false" /><param name="allowFullScreen" value="true" /><param name="swLiveConnect" value="true" /><param name="allowScriptAccess" value="always" /><embed src="http://c.brightcove.com/services/viewer/federated_f9?isVid=1" bgcolor="#FFFFFF" flashVars="videoId=599609567001&playerID=45533486001&playerKey=AQ%2E%2E,AAAACofWkTk%2E,d-cWVfCeeBH2u4-MzWQrjKX5_f_MoDWg&domain=embed&dynamicStreaming=true" base="http://admin.brightcove.com" name="flashObj" width="486" height="412" seamlesstabbing="false" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" allowFullScreen="true" swLiveConnect="true" allowScriptAccess="always" pluginspage="http://www.macromedia.com/shockwave/download/index.cgi?P1_Prod_Version=ShockwaveFlash"></embed></object><br /><br /><a href="http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703369704575461722624461634.html?mod=WSJ_Finance_LEFTTopNews">IMF Expands Loan Options to Developing Countries </a>WSJ<br /><blockquote>WASHINGTON—<strong>The International Monetary Fund said Monday it would broaden the kinds of loans it offers</strong> to encourage a large swath of developing countries to get financial help before they are engulfed in crisis.<br /><br />Under a new <strong>"precautionary credit line," the IMF said it would lend a substantial amount of money to countries</strong> whose policies it generally endorses, before those nations run into trouble. The loan would operate like a line of credit, so a country wouldn't have to use the money, and rack up interest charges, unless it needed the financing.<br /><br /><strong>The program would offer loans of as much as five times a country's quota, meaning its financial stake in the IMF, with the possibility of doubling that after a year. Indonesia, for instance, has a $3.1 billion quota, so it could be eligible for a credit line of up to $31 billion. ....<br /></strong><br /><strong>The IMF is working on yet another new loan, the "global stabilization mechanism," which would be available for groups of countries, as a way to overcome the stigma of borrowing from the IMF. The IMF is even considering approving countries for such loans without them having to apply for the money.<br /></strong><br />Among issues still being debated is whether to simply allow existing credit lines to be more broadly deployed or come up with a new facility that would provide short-term liquidity, he said.</blockquote><br /><a href="http://viewswire.eiu.com/index.asp?layout=ib3Article&article_id=1187391503&pubtypeid=1132462498&rf=0">The IMF devises a new way to lend to vulnerable countries before they suffer from financial crises</a> Economist<br /><br /><a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/article/imf-sees-g7-net-debt-200-gdp-2030-441-2050">IMF Sees G7 Net Debt At 200% Of GDP By 2030; 441% By 2050</a> ZH<br /><br />Got <a href="http://immobilienblasen.blogspot.com/2010/07/special-gold-report-in-gold-we-trust.html">GOLD</a> ? ;-)jmfhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07573793835441139826noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-30868010.post-25377154550043421642010-08-23T01:53:00.000-07:002010-09-21T21:14:49.736-07:00Quotes Edward Hugh, John Hussman & Andy XieI´m taking a quick break from my <a href="http://immobilienblasen.blogspot.com/2010/08/youtube-classics.html">"Time-Out"</a>.... With "QE 2.0 & 3.0" just around the corner & the € crises off the front pages i think the links are not "unimportant".......<br /><br /><em>Verabscheide mich nach diesen Posting wieder in die angekündigte <a href="http://immobilienblasen.blogspot.com/2010/08/youtube-classics.html">"Auszeit"</a>.... Im Zusammenhang mit der bevorstehenden "QE Version 2.0, 3.0 usw...." sowie der "fast vergessenen" € Krise erscheinen mir die kompletten Links besonders lesenwert....</em><br /><br /><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg_eunGrqHUReC0X19HsUSsAxAfXKJSgMi84PZHeWR693pHdo_XetGb8yA_5RyfegFBKQtHYlhFzrM7K9dPv9SbGQbeuhzlfn0vtGTZNCrPIxMC8yUZAf8l3j36FEyl2yFIfJoX5Q/s1600/levergared+planet+nyt.jpg"><img style="TEXT-ALIGN: center; MARGIN: 0px auto 10px; WIDTH: 400px; DISPLAY: block; HEIGHT: 188px; CURSOR: hand" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5508528135320403282" border="0" alt="" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg_eunGrqHUReC0X19HsUSsAxAfXKJSgMi84PZHeWR693pHdo_XetGb8yA_5RyfegFBKQtHYlhFzrM7K9dPv9SbGQbeuhzlfn0vtGTZNCrPIxMC8yUZAf8l3j36FEyl2yFIfJoX5Q/s400/levergared+planet+nyt.jpg" /></a><a href="http://fistfulofeuros.net/afoe/economics-and-demography/how-many-times-can-one-driver-fall-asleep-at-the-same-wheel-and-live/">Edward Hugh</a><br /><blockquote>Spain’s debt for 2010 according to the EDP is expected to reach around 77% of GDP (EU Commission spring forecast), and while we feel it is still possible to agree with the IMF when they say that that “<strong>Spain’s (public) debt ratio is low compared with many other countries in Europe”, it is only possible to do so if we do not forget that if we add in the 6% that is held by the Social Security Fund, the 7% that has built up in Accounts Payable and the 5% owed by Spains Public Corporations, we end up with a total of something like 95% debt to GDP</strong>, which is, of course, above the average. And this is not to even begin to count all those impending pension liabilities.</blockquote><a href="http://www.hussmanfunds.com/wmc/wmc100823.htm">John Hussman</a><br /><blockquote><p>My impression is that Ben Bernanke has little sense of the damage he is about to provoke.<strong> A central banker who talks about throwing money from helicopters is not only arrogant but foolish</strong>. </p><p><strong>Nearly a century ago, the great economist Ludwig von Mises observed that massive central bank easing is invariably a form of cowardice that attempts to avoid the need to restructure debt or correct fiscal deficits, avoiding wiser but more difficult choices by instead destroying the value of the currency. </strong></p></blockquote><a href="http://www.marketwatch.com/story/inflation-not-deflation-mr-bernanke-2010-08-22?pagenumber=1">Andy Xie</a><br /><blockquote><p>When the Fed or the European Central Bank tries to stimulate, they are actually stimulating the global economy as a whole. <strong>Water, no matter where it comes from, flows downwards. Stimulus, similarly, flows to where costs are low and banking systems are healthy.</strong> </p><p><strong>If you believe this logic, the actions of the Fed and the ECB fuel inflation and asset bubbles in emerging economies rather than stimulate growth at home. </strong></p></blockquote>Lots of damage has already been done...... Regarding "healthy" banking systems China has nothing to <a href="http://immobilienblasen.blogspot.com/2010/08/china-bubble-bursting-update-newest.html">worry about</a>... ;-)<br /><br /><em>Denke das wir bereits heute mehr als genügend Auswirkungen dieser Erkenntnis sehen können.....Immerhin hat China in Sachen "gesunden" Bankensystem </em><a href="http://immobilienblasen.blogspot.com/2010/08/china-bubble-bursting-update-newest.html"><em>nichts zu befürchten</em></a><em>.... ;-)</em>jmfhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07573793835441139826noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-30868010.post-10613531926389985002010-08-07T01:22:00.000-07:002010-09-07T04:25:34.567-07:00YouTube Classics....I´m taking a break.... In the meantime a few of my favourites... Enjoy ;-)<br /><br /><em>Nehme mir ne Auszeit..... Bis dahin einige meiner Favoriten.....Viel Spaß ;-)</em><br /><br /><object width="640" height="385"><param name="movie" value="http://www.youtube.com/v/uQITWbAaDx0&hl=de_DE&fs=1"><param name="allowFullScreen" value="true"><param name="allowscriptaccess" value="always"><embed src="http://www.youtube.com/v/uQITWbAaDx0&hl=de_DE&fs=1" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" allowscriptaccess="always" allowfullscreen="true" width="640" height="385"></embed></object><br /><br /><object width="480" height="385"><param name="movie" value="http://www.youtube.com/v/sx0wAhCMvAc?fs=1&hl=de_DE"></param><param name="allowFullScreen" value="true"></param><param name="allowscriptaccess" value="always"></param><embed src="http://www.youtube.com/v/sx0wAhCMvAc?fs=1&hl=de_DE" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" allowscriptaccess="always" allowfullscreen="true" width="640" height="385"></embed></object><br /><br /><object width="480" height="385"><param name="movie" value="http://www.youtube.com/v/vr3x_RRJdd4&hl=de_DE&fs=1"><param name="allowFullScreen" value="true"><param name="allowscriptaccess" value="always"><embed src="http://www.youtube.com/v/vr3x_RRJdd4&hl=de_DE&fs=1" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" allowscriptaccess="always" allowfullscreen="true" width="640" height="385"></embed></object><br /><br /><object width="640" height="385"><param name="movie" value="http://www.youtube.com/v/S1ZZreXEqSY&hl=de_DE&fs=1"><param name="allowFullScreen" value="true"><param name="allowscriptaccess" value="always"><embed src="http://www.youtube.com/v/S1ZZreXEqSY&hl=de_DE&fs=1" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" allowscriptaccess="always" allowfullscreen="true" width="640" height="385"></embed></object><br /><br /><object width="640" height="385"><param name="movie" value="http://www.youtube.com/v/YUhb0XII93I&hl=de_DE&fs=1"><param name="allowFullScreen" value="true"><param name="allowscriptaccess" value="always"><embed src="http://www.youtube.com/v/YUhb0XII93I&hl=de_DE&fs=1" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" allowscriptaccess="always" allowfullscreen="true" width="640" height="385"></embed></object><br /><br /><object width="480" height="385"><param name="movie" value="http://www.youtube.com/v/LU8DDYz68kM&hl=de_DE&fs=1"><param name="allowFullScreen" value="true"><param name="allowscriptaccess" value="always"><embed src="http://www.youtube.com/v/LU8DDYz68kM&hl=de_DE&fs=1" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" allowscriptaccess="always" allowfullscreen="true" width="640" height="385"></embed></object><br /><br /><object width="640" height="505"><param name="movie" value="http://www.youtube.com/v/GA8z7f7a2Pk?fs=1&hl=de_DE"><param name="allowFullScreen" value="true"><param name="allowscriptaccess" value="always"><embed src="http://www.youtube.com/v/GA8z7f7a2Pk?fs=1&hl=de_DE" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" allowscriptaccess="always" allowfullscreen="true" width="640" height="505"></embed></object>jmfhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07573793835441139826noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-30868010.post-73485881955238962072010-08-05T00:19:00.000-07:002010-08-07T01:51:49.920-07:00China "Bubble" ( Bursting ) Update & Newest Spin "Excluding Tier 1 Cities Everything Is Fine......"Not only the cracks regarding the Three Gorges Dam are getting more and more obvious on a daily basis...... You can read my earlier takes on China <a href="http://immobilienblasen.blogspot.com/2010/07/magnitude-of-increase-in-land-values.html">here</a><br /><br /><em>Nicht nur der Drei Schluchten Damm zeigt erste Risse...... Mehr von mir zum Thema China gibt es <a href="http://immobilienblasen.blogspot.com/2010/07/magnitude-of-increase-in-land-values.html">hier</a></em><br /><br /><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiE4qgJmhCKLOsq2dO-XDq78MYtQs2LZjZZjG1Fx6NgGW12vyxQHB2bXO2hql9wf1m_97d8Ak3Dg7p1H0Q7sf1DW3fpSUiqkH3s6cVjJti6jtwIsOiXLkyzBBBfUMfqlHld-JpGLQ/s1600/china+dragon.jpg"><img style="TEXT-ALIGN: center; MARGIN: 0px auto 10px; WIDTH: 360px; DISPLAY: block; HEIGHT: 241px; CURSOR: hand" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5501827217654311714" border="0" alt="" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiE4qgJmhCKLOsq2dO-XDq78MYtQs2LZjZZjG1Fx6NgGW12vyxQHB2bXO2hql9wf1m_97d8Ak3Dg7p1H0Q7sf1DW3fpSUiqkH3s6cVjJti6jtwIsOiXLkyzBBBfUMfqlHld-JpGLQ/s400/china+dragon.jpg" /></a><a href="http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2010/08/andy-xie-on-chinas-empty-apartments.html">Andy Xie</a> via NC<br /><blockquote><p><strong>How many flats in China are sitting empty?</strong> <strong>The media recently floated a story — denied by power companies</strong> — <strong>that 64.5 million urban electricity meters registered zero consumption over a recent, six-month period. That led to a theory that China has enough empty apartments to house 200 million people….<br /></strong><br />What especially distinguishes China’s property bubble…is an unprecedented amount of living space. This huge stock of empty flats equals the nation’s quantity bubble.<br /><br />Although the government doesn’t publish vacancy data, <strong>I think the vacancy rate for the nation’s private, commercial housing stock is between 25% and 30%.</strong> That’s at least double what’s required in a normal market. The gap between what’s needed and what’s available can be viewed as speculative inventory. <strong>The value of this inventory held by speculators is probably around 15% of GDP.</strong> </p><p><strong>It’s being kept on ice, just as copper and other commodities are hoarded in anticipation of rising prices…</strong></p></blockquote>Looking at the clip & the TIME photo gallery <a href="http://www.time.com/time/photogallery/0,29307,1975397_2094492,00.html">Ordos, China: A Modern Ghost Town</a> the very high number looks less "hyperbolic"....<br /><br /><em>Wenn man sich den Clip & die Photoserie von TIME <a href="http://www.time.com/time/photogallery/0,29307,1975397_2094492,00.html">Ordos, China: A Modern Ghost Town</a> ansieht erscheint die extrem hohe Zahl weniger "übertrieben"....</em><br /><br /><object width="640" height="385"><param name="movie" value="http://www.youtube.com/v/0h7V3Twb-Qk&hl=de_DE&fs=1"><param name="allowFullScreen" value="true"><param name="allowscriptaccess" value="always"><embed src="http://www.youtube.com/v/0h7V3Twb-Qk&hl=de_DE&fs=1" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" allowscriptaccess="always" allowfullscreen="true" width="640" height="385"></embed></object><br /><br /><a href="http://noir.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=ab.zb2lBFicI">China Tests Said to Check Risk of Cash Crunch Among Developers </a>Bloomberg<br /><blockquote>China’s stress tests of banks will assess the risk that a possible slump in property prices may strain developers’ finances and cause homebuyers to default, a person with knowledge of the matter said.<br /><br /><strong>The banking regulator told lenders to include worst-case scenarios of prices dropping 50 percent to 60 percent in cities where they have risen excessively<br /></strong><br /><strong>Banks were also told to stress test loans to industries including steel, cement, construction materials and home appliances that are related to housing, the person said<br /></strong><br />Previous stress tests carried out in the past year assumed home-price declines of as much as 30 percent.</blockquote>I´ll bet that every (big) bank will pass.....;-) I have to repeat myself <a href="http://immobilienblasen.blogspot.com/2010/07/another-reason-why-chinese-banking.html">Another Reason Why The Chinese Banking Financial Strength Rating Is Just Beating Iceland & Kyrgyzstan.....</a> & that despite almost <a href="http://noir.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aywZY2fdgICQ">$60 billion in recent capital increases</a> from the big banks the term "Drop in the bucket" fits perfectly....<br /><br /><em>Bin mir sicher das keine einzige (wichtige) Bank durchfallen wird.... Verweise hier auf </em><a href="http://immobilienblasen.blogspot.com/2010/07/another-reason-why-chinese-banking.html"><em>Another Reason Why The Chinese Banking Financial Strength Rating Is Just Beating Iceland & Kyrgyzstan.....</em></a> <em>Denke das trotz der </em><a href="http://noir.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aywZY2fdgICQ"><em>fast 60 Mrd $ an Kapitalerhöhungen</em></a><em> der Banken in jüngster Zeit die Bezeichnung "Tropfen auf den heissen Stein" dürfte passen....<br /></em><br /><a href="http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2010/08/04/306546/cracks-in-the-chinese-bubble/">Cracks in the Chinese bubble?</a> FT Alphaville<br /><blockquote>....the rule of law remains weak in Chinese property overall — <strong>24 out of 30 developers surveyed said they knew of companies that had illegally taken out bank loans to buy land.</strong></blockquote><a href="http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/bizchina/2010-08/03/content_11087842.htm">Land ministry finds 1,457 unused plots</a> China Daily via FT Alphaville<br /><blockquote><strong>China's Ministry of Land and Resources has found 1,457 unused plots of land nationwide</strong> and given a list of what companies hold rights to these plots to the China Banking Regulatory Commission, the China Securities Journal reported today, citing a person familiar with the situation.<br /><br />The banking regulator will use the list to conduct a risk assessment, the Beijing-based newspaper reported. <strong>About 80 percent of the unused plots may be repossessed by the government,</strong> according to the report.</blockquote><p>It looks like the latest spin attempt to keep the "story" intact comes along the line "excluding Tier 1 cities everything is fine "..... Where have i heard this bevore.... ? ;-)....<br /><br /><em>Sieht ganz so aus als wenn die nächste Sau die durchs Dorf getrieben wird um zumindest den Anschein zu erwecken das noch nicht alles verloren ist die Überschrift trägt "Abseits der Tier 1 Städte ist der Immobilienmarkt noch intakt"....... Wo habe ich das bloß vorher schon einmal gehört.... ? ;-)</em><br /><br /><a href="http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2010/08/04/306546/cracks-in-the-chinese-bubble/">Standart Chartered</a> FT Alphaville<br /><blockquote><p><strong>while the focus is on Tier 1 cities, there is a good chance that they do not represent the national trend. </strong><br /><br /><strong>There are, after all, hundreds of other cities around China that are busy growing, and in which people might be still busy building and selling apartments</strong>. </p><p><strong>Sales have fallen in Tier 2 and Tier 3 cities too, but not by as much as in Tier 1 cities, as Chart 2 shows [above].</strong> (In our chart, we have used data from 10 cities: Tianjin, Chongqing, Chengdu, Hefei, Wuhan, Changsha, Dalian, Nanjing, Suzhou and Changchun).<br /><br /><strong>Indeed, in some cities – Hangzhou in Zhejiang province, for instance – we have actually seen prices push up a little since April.</strong></p><strong>This was a Tier 1 bubble and it looks to have been pricked without killing the Tier 2 and Tier 3 markets</strong></blockquote><p><p align="center"><a title="View China Real Estate Survey on Scribd" href="http://www.scribd.com/doc/35504814/China-Real-Estate-Survey" style="margin: 12px auto 6px auto; font-family: Helvetica,Arial,Sans-serif; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; font-size: 14px; line-height: normal; font-size-adjust: none; font-stretch: normal; -x-system-font: none; display: block; text-decoration: underline;">China Real Estate Survey</a> <object id="doc_389558918353851" name="doc_389558918353851" height="500" width="100%" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" data="http://d1.scribdassets.com/ScribdViewer.swf" style="outline:none;" > <param name="movie" value="http://d1.scribdassets.com/ScribdViewer.swf"> <param name="wmode" value="opaque"> <param name="bgcolor" value="#ffffff"> <param name="allowFullScreen" value="true"> <param name="allowScriptAccess" value="always"> <param name="FlashVars" value="document_id=35504814&access_key=key-glpr275qtfp52v04xmp&page=1&viewMode=list"> <embed id="doc_389558918353851" name="doc_389558918353851" src="http://d1.scribdassets.com/ScribdViewer.swf?document_id=35504814&access_key=key-glpr275qtfp52v04xmp&page=1&viewMode=list" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" allowscriptaccess="always" allowfullscreen="true" height="500" width="100%" wmode="opaque" bgcolor="#ffffff"></embed> </object> <br /><br />H/T <a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/article/what-really-going-china-real-estate-standard-chartered-survey">ZH</a><br /><br />At least they acknowledge that Tier 1 is a bubble.....Take a secound look at the volume stat on page 2...... Crashing is defintely not an overstatement....<strong>UPDATE</strong>:<a href="http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2010/08/05/307811/stanchart-chinese-property-correction-imminent/">StanChart: Chinese property correction imminent</a> <p><em>Immerhin wird richtigerweise der Tier1 Immobilienmarkt als Bubble identifiziert.....Denke die Volumenangabe auf Seite 2 ist besonders "beeindruckend"..... Der Begriff "Crash" ist sicher nicht als übertrieben einzustufen....<strong>UPDATE</strong>: <a href="http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2010/08/05/307811/stanchart-chinese-property-correction-imminent/">StanChart: Chinese property correction imminent</a> </em><br /><br />UPDATE:<br /><br /><a href="http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2010/08/05/307566/following-the-great-stock-market-leader-china/">Following the great (stock market) leader — China</a> FT Alphaville<br /></p><blockquote><p>As equity markets should act as a leading indicator of broader economic growth trends, it seems, therefore, that <strong>the Chinese equity market has recently become ‘the leading indicator of the leading indicators’.</strong> Given that the local <strong>Shanghai Composite index and MSCI China have both rebounded by 13-15% from their recent lows </strong>and our China strategist, Minggao Shen, has just turned more bullish on the market1, these events are a positive mix for global emerging markets as a whole. This is, therefore, a good time to consider the Chinese market’s role as a signaling mechanism for GEMs as a whole.<br /><br /><strong>China is now a very large economy (the second biggest in the world, accounting for an estimated 9% of global GDP in 2010)</strong> and a big stock market (the ninth biggest in the world). </p><p><strong>The Chinese economy is also expected to account for as much as 23%10 of global growth (i.e., the rise in global GDP) in 2010</strong>, a share that is higher at present due to the weakness of developed economies . . .<br /><br /><strong>China not only now accounts for a significant proportion of global growth in a but it is, by far, the biggest consumer of commodities. Our commodities analyst, Alan Heap11, reports that China currently accounts for the consumption of around 40% of several major metals including copper, nickel, and aluminum . . . </strong></p></blockquote>Oh boy.... Wall Street Finest / Shanghai strikes again.... Too bad that he didn´t mention that one reason for the rise in the stock market is probably the stalling real estate market.... With negative real interest rates Chinese have besides <a href="http://immobilienblasen.blogspot.com/2010/08/china-to-open-gold-market-improve-tax.html">GOLD</a> almost no place to put their money to work..... If my view on real estate is correct all his bullish arguments would be turned upside down......<br /><br /><em>Mal wieder perfektes ( Experten ) Timing..... Wäre nett gewesen wenn zumindest in einem Nebensatz erwähnt worden wäre das einer der Haupttreiber für den Geldfluss in die Aktienmärkte der rapide abkühlenden Immobiliensektor ist....Da die Chinesen mit negativen Realzinsen leben müssen und Abseits von <a href="http://immobilienblasen.blogspot.com/2010/08/china-to-open-gold-market-improve-tax.html">GOLD</a> nur der Aktienmarkt als Alternative übrig bleibt verwundert die gesehene "Stärke" nicht....Sollte ich mit meiner Meinung zum Immobilienmarkt in China auch nur im Ansatz Recht behalten drehen sich die o.a. "bullischen" Argumente über Nacht ins Gegenteil.... </em>jmfhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07573793835441139826noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-30868010.post-57323091981960056702010-08-03T02:33:00.000-07:002010-08-03T09:19:24.706-07:00China To Open Gold Market, Improve Tax Policies, PBOC SaysKeep in mind that just until a few years ago China had banned the private ownership of GOLD as an investment product.... Watch the clip & i assume the PBoC had to do something to keep the market operating in an orderly fashion....According to the <a href="http://www.ftd.de/unternehmen/industrie/:edelmetalle-chinas-goldreform-loest-preisfantasien-aus/50152172.html">Financial Times Deutschland</a> GOLD in HK is trading already with very large premiums vs the London price....Another main reason could be to establish a stronger "alternative" to the quasi monopolists London & NY....Every bit of new competition for the London & NY exchanges is "appreciated"....<br /><br /><em>Vor dem Hintergrund das China bis vor einigen Jahren jeglichen privaten Besitz von GOLD im Zusammenhang mit Investments verboten hatte erscheint die Meldung in einem noch vorteilhafteren Licht.... Ich tippe mal, das wenn man sich den nachfolgenden Clip ansieht, die PBoC zumindest teilweise "Getriebener" der Entwicklung ist. Ohne eine weitere Liberalisierung könnte es leicht passieren das ein halbwegs geordneten Markt nicht mehr zu gewährleisten ist.....Wenn man der <a href="http://www.ftd.de/unternehmen/industrie/:edelmetalle-chinas-goldreform-loest-preisfantasien-aus/50152172.html">Financial Times Deutschland</a> Glauben schenken darf wird GOLD in HK bereits jetzt mit einem mehr als happigen Aufschlag vs dem Londoner Kurs gehandelt....Ein weiteres wichtiges Argument dürfte sein eine schlagkräftige Handelsplatzalternative zu installieren....In jedem Fall ist jede zusätzliche Konkurrenz für die Börsen in London & NY mehr als willkommen.....</em><br /><br /><object width="640" height="385"><param name="movie" value="http://www.youtube.com/v/SbUvvfJakfI&hl=de_DE&fs=1"></param><param name="allowFullScreen" value="true"></param><param name="allowscriptaccess" value="always"></param><embed src="http://www.youtube.com/v/SbUvvfJakfI&hl=de_DE&fs=1" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" allowscriptaccess="always" allowfullscreen="true" width="640" height="385"></embed></object><br /><br /><a href="http://noir.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aBlvNbRbm.Jc">China to Open Gold Market, Improve Tax Policies, PBOC Says </a><br /><blockquote>Aug. 3 (Bloomberg) -- <strong>China will continue to open up its gold market and will study how to improve taxation policies for the use of gold for investment purposes, the People’s Bank of China said today.<br /><br />China will improve foreign-exchange policies related to the gold markets and will allow more commercial banks to export and import the metal, the central bank said in a statement on its website.</strong> <br /><br /><strong>The government is also studying allowing foreign suppliers to deliver bullion directly to the Shanghai Gold Exchange</strong>, it said. <br /><br /><strong>The total volume of gold traded on the Shanghai Gold Exchange jumped 59 percent in the first six months from a year earlier to the equivalent of 3,174.5 metric tons (102.1 million troy ounces), </strong>Song Yuqin, vice general manager at the exchange, said last month. <br /><br /><strong>The Shanghai Gold Exchange has five foreign bank members including the China units of HSBC Holdings Plc and Standard Chartered Plc</strong>, according to a statement on the bourse’s website. <br /><br />Gold demand in China, the world’s second-largest consumer, increased in the first half as government measures to cool the property market and falling equities spurred investment, the exchange said July 7. Spot gold climbed to a record in June as investors sought to protect their wealth amid concerns about the global economic recovery. <br /><br />“The Chinese central bank is liberalizing the gold market step by step and this is the latest move,” said Ellison Chu, managing director at the precious-metals desk at Standard Bank Asia Ltd. in Hong Kong. “It will allow more foreign participation in China’s growing gold market and it will also help China to be more integrated into the global gold-trading system.” <br /><br /><strong>The central bank also said it would encourage and guide commercial banks to provide yuan-denominated gold derivative trading. </strong></blockquote><br />The following presentation monitoring the entire GOLD picture in China is taken from an earlier post <a href="http://immobilienblasen.blogspot.com/2010/05/in-fiat-money-we-do-not-trust-chinese.html">In Fiat Money We Do Not Trust "Chinese Edition" </a><br /><br /><em>Die nachfolgende Präsentation die umfassend das Thema China & GOLD abhandelt stammt von einem früheren Posting </em><a href="http://immobilienblasen.blogspot.com/2010/05/in-fiat-money-we-do-not-trust-chinese.html"><em>In Fiat Money We Do Not Trust "Chinese Edition" </em></a><br /><a title="View Gold Report China on Scribd" href="http://www.scribd.com/doc/29092768/Gold-Report-China" style="margin: 12px auto 6px auto; font-family: Helvetica,Arial,Sans-serif; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; font-size: 14px; line-height: normal; font-size-adjust: none; font-stretch: normal; -x-system-font: none; display: block; text-decoration: underline;">Gold Report China</a> <object id="doc_88728080881022" name="doc_88728080881022" height="500" width="100%" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" data="http://d1.scribdassets.com/ScribdViewer.swf" style="outline:none;" > <param name="movie" value="http://d1.scribdassets.com/ScribdViewer.swf"> <param name="wmode" value="opaque"> <param name="bgcolor" value="#ffffff"> <param name="allowFullScreen" value="true"> <param name="allowScriptAccess" value="always"> <param name="FlashVars" value="document_id=29092768&access_key=key-litj1c3h80ne85v1gks&page=1&viewMode=list"> <embed id="doc_88728080881022" name="doc_88728080881022" src="http://d1.scribdassets.com/ScribdViewer.swf?document_id=29092768&access_key=key-litj1c3h80ne85v1gks&page=1&viewMode=list" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" allowscriptaccess="always" allowfullscreen="true" height="500" width="100%" wmode="opaque" bgcolor="#ffffff"></embed> </object>jmfhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07573793835441139826noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-30868010.post-38613475082611294302010-08-01T22:55:00.000-07:002010-08-03T22:07:17.556-07:00More Proof That China´s Real Estate Market Is Fueled Mainly Via State & Local Owned Enterprises.....To get the entire picture you should read <a href="http://immobilienblasen.blogspot.com/2010/07/magnitude-of-increase-in-land-values.html">China : State & Local Owned Enterprises vs Madoff, Ponzi, Enron...... </a>first..... Just last week i labeled the headline as a little bit "provocative"..... As usual i was too polite... ;-)<br /><br /><em>Empfehle zur Einführung und um das ganze Ausmaß zu erfassen vorweg </em><a href="http://immobilienblasen.blogspot.com/2010/07/magnitude-of-increase-in-land-values.html"><em>China : State & Local Owned Enterprises vs Madoff, Ponzi, Enron...... </em></a><em>zu lesen..... Letzte Woche habe ich die Überschrift bewusst noch als eine leichte Übertreibung tituliert.... War wie üblich mal wieder zu höflich.... ;-)</em><br /><br /><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhh_uOHwq64gDYIKWQF7xypsywBvY_l0PyW622tWhU_3HGxaSmnpv9nhrpNPmAHCu_6HfVkzDQOzppW-I8bxZMiCxZy4apco5nlEh3kXKxsPDkxopt1lMK48YT5UQ5IAybOnc6RfA/s1600/china+image.jpg"><img style="TEXT-ALIGN: center; MARGIN: 0px auto 10px; WIDTH: 350px; DISPLAY: block; HEIGHT: 256px; CURSOR: hand" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5500688204109865522" border="0" alt="" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhh_uOHwq64gDYIKWQF7xypsywBvY_l0PyW622tWhU_3HGxaSmnpv9nhrpNPmAHCu_6HfVkzDQOzppW-I8bxZMiCxZy4apco5nlEh3kXKxsPDkxopt1lMK48YT5UQ5IAybOnc6RfA/s400/china+image.jpg" /></a><a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2010/08/02/business/global/02chinareal.html?_r=1">State-Owned Groups Fuel China’s Real Estate Boom</a> NYT<br /><blockquote>WUHU, China — <strong>The Anhui Salt Industry Corporation is a state-owned company that has 11,000 employees, access to government salt mines and a Communist Party boss.<br /><br />Now it has swaggered into a new line of business: real estate.<br /></strong><br />The company is developing a complex of luxury high-rises here called Platinum Bay on a parcel it acquired last year by outbidding two other developers to win a local government land auction.<br /><br />Anhui Salt is hardly alone among big state-owned companies. The China Railway Group is developing residential complexes in Beijing after winning the auction for a huge piece of land there.<br /><br />Likewise, the China Ordnance Group, a state-led military manufacturer best known for amphibious assault weapons, paid $260 million for Beijing property where it plans to build luxury residences and retail outlets.<br /><br />And in one of China’s biggest land deals yet, the state-run shipbuilder Sino Ocean paid $1.3 billion last December and March to buy two giant tracts from Beijing’s municipal government to develop residential communities.<br /><br /><strong>All around the nation, giant state-owned oil, chemical, military, telecom and highway groups are bidding up prices on sprawling plots of land for big real estate projects unrelated to their core businesses.<br /></strong><br />By driving up property prices, the state-owned companies, which are ultimately controlled by the national government, are working at cross-purposes with the central government’s effort to keep China’s real estate boom from becoming a debt-driven speculative bubble — like the one that devastated Western financial markets when it burst two years ago.<br /><br />Here in Wuhu, a sleepy industrial town about 70 miles west of Nanjing, Anhui Salt is breaking ground on its high-rise project in the center of town — next to a hotel operated by Anhui Conch Holdings.<br /><br />The land was put up for auction in May 2009, and there were just three bidders — another of which was also a state-owned company. <strong>Anhui Salt, which also boasts of operating a steel trading arm, a financing vehicle and even two Honda dealerships, says it is eager to expand beyond industrial products and table salt.<br /></strong><br />“Platinum Bay is Anhui Salt Industry’s first luxury project and targets the very rich, the very elite class of Wuhu,” said Su Chuanbo, marketing manager.<br /><br /><strong>Asked why Anhui Salt wants to be a developer, Mr. Su said the central government had encouraged state companies to be more profitable, and that real estate was incredibly lucrative.</strong></blockquote><blockquote></blockquote><p>Add the following story to the mix ........</p><p><em>Das kombiniert mit der nachfolgenden Meldung......</em></p><p><a href="http://noir.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=ascjiwbPgKwU&pos=3">Chinese Manufacturing Weakens in ‘Slowdown, Not a Meltdown’ </a>Bloomberg <blockquote><p align="center"><strong><img border="0" alt="Chart" src="http://static.businessinsider.com/image/4c567dfe7f8b9a9a644e0a00-500-/chart.png" width="500" /></p>China’s July manufacturing data were the weakest in more than a year</strong> as the government clamped down on property speculation and investment in polluting and energy- intensive factories.<br /><br /><strong>A purchasing managers’ index released today by HSBC Holdings Plc and Markit Economics showed a contraction</strong>. A government-backed PMI slid to 51.2 from 52.1, the Federation of Logistics and Purchasing said yesterday.<br /><br /><strong>The HSBC PMI slid to 49.4, the first reading below 50 in 16 months, from 50.4 in June. Measures of output, orders and export orders all showed contractions.</strong> The government PMI, released by the statistics bureau and the logistics federation, showed the weakest expansion in 17 months. <p></p></blockquote>H/T Chart <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/chinas-manufacturing-index-dives-to-a-16-month-low-2010-8">BI</a><br /><br />Needless to say that stocks in tandem with commodities surged to a multi month high.....;-)<br /><br /><em>Überflüssig zu erwähnen das die Aktienmärkte Hand in Hand mit den Rohstoffen diese Nummer mit neuen Mehrmonatshochs abgefeiert haben.... ;-)</em><br /><br /><a href="http://www.marketwatch.com/story/hsbcs-july-china-services-pmi-points-to-expansion-2010-08-04">HSBC's July China services PMI points to expansion</a> MW<br /><br /><strong>China's service-sector growth accelerated in July, marking the fastest pace of expansion in three months, according to HSBC's Purchasing Managers' Index. The PMI came in at 56.3 in July, up from 55.6 in June</strong>, HSBC said in an emailed statement Wednesday. "This improvement in the July service PMI reading, though modest, reflects the resilience of the domestic part of the economy, in particular consumer-related sectors. Combined with the sustained recovery in the labor market, this should cushion the economic slowdown in the coming quarters," <strong>The July PMI marks the 20th consecutive month of expansion for the services sector</strong><br /><br />This "transition" is good in the long term..... Rebalancing is needed....<br /><br /><em>Immerhin ein Silberstreif am Horizont.... Die Entwicklung des Servicesektors ist dringend notwending um die Ungleichgewichte zumindest auf Lange Sicht halbwegs ins Lot zu bringen....</em>jmfhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07573793835441139826noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-30868010.post-34595263995000599122010-07-29T02:47:00.000-07:002010-08-16T11:04:33.454-07:00Clevelend Fed "One Measure Of Corporate Leverage Recently Reached A New Historical High"By now everybody has seen the following chart showing the very impressive cash position of corporates only waiting to be spend on dividends, buybacks, M&A, investments etc..... If you dig a little bit deeper it seems outside a few very strong companies ( mainly tech ) the overall "breath" isn´t quite as strong as reported...... On top of this to my knowledge a not insignificant percentage of the cash is "trapped" outside the US.... Without a special "tax holiday" there is only a very small chance that this money can be used freely..... See 2nd. UPDATE at the end of the post.....<br /><br /><em>Ich denke jeder hat den nachfolgenden Chart, der die starke Cashposition der US Unternehmen zeigt, inzwischen irgendwo gesehen bzw davon gelesen ( wird ja fast gebetsmühlenartig tagtäglich wiederholt )... Hoffnung der Märkte ist das dieser gigantische Batzen entweden in Form von Investments, Dividenden, Aktienrückkäufen oder Übernahmen den Weg zurück in die Kassen der Anleger und den Wirtschaftskreislauf findet.... Wenn man etwas genauer hinsieht ist ausserhalb einiger extrem starker Unternehmen ( hauptsächlich Technologie ) in der "Breite" nicht alles so rosig wie man allgemein vermuten könnte..... Darüberhinaus ist nach meinem Kenntnisstand ein nicht unerheblicher Teil der Gelder ausserhalb der US "gefangen"..... Ohne eine besondere Steuererleichterung wird keine der Firmen ohne extreme Nachteile ( glaube ca. 30%) über diese Gelder verfügen können.... Habe hierzu noch ein zweites Update am Ende des Postings gemacht.....</em><br /><br /><p align="center"><img src="http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2010/07/FT-Corp-cash.png" /></p><a href="http://www.ft.com/cms/s/3/6d01ae78-8dbf-11df-b5e2-00144feab49a.html?ftcamp=rss&utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter">US corporate cash</a> FT LEX<br /><br /><blockquote>American companies are supposedly flush with cash. Therefore, the optimists say, we should own stocks instead of bonds. Bulging balance sheets should lead either to a mergers and acquisitions boom or, less interestingly, companies can always buy back their own stock. Either way, stocks win<strong>.<br /></strong><br /><strong>There is one big problem with this argument; in fact, judged in aggregate, corporate USA’s books are in bad shape. The error is looking at gross cash positions only, ignoring the near doubling in non-financial companies’ leverage since 1982.<br /><br />Some sectors, such as technology, are genuinely cash rich: the members of the Bloomberg World Technology index have a net $260bn salted away, or 12 per cent of their total market capitalisation.</strong></blockquote><blockquote><p><strong>But, in aggregate, non-financial companies’ cash only covers about 25 per cent of the interest-paying debt on their balance sheets, in line with the norm for the past 40 years.</strong></p></blockquote><blockquote>In the 1950s, companies’ cash covered more than half of their debt. </blockquote><p></p><blockquote></blockquote><a href="http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2010/07/corporate-cash-top-20-firms-635-billion/">Corporate Cash: Top 20 Firms = $635 Billion</a> Barry Ritholtz<br /><br /><blockquote><strong>We found that 3,000 non-financial firms have $1.641 trillion dollars in cash and equivalents.<br /></strong><br />Other details:<br /><br />-<strong>The top 50 firms are over half of this dollar amount, accounting for $823.642 billion dollars.</strong><br /><br />-<strong>The top 20 firms, ranging from Berkshire to United Health Group account for most of this — $635.386 billion dollars.</strong><br /><br />-<strong>The automakers are another anomaly — Ford (at #3) is showing $46.67 billion dollars in cash — but its against $66.668 billion in liabilities. Even GM’s bankrupt stub Liquidation Motors (# 17) is showing $14.194 billion in cash against $73.934 billion in debt.<br /></strong><br />-I’m not sure if we should exclude Berkshire Hathaway or GE as financials, but they accounted for $146.644 and $111.176 billion dollars respectively.</blockquote><p align="center"><img src="http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2010/07/Top-20-Cash-Holdings1.png" /></p><a href="http://www.clevelandfed.org/research/commentary/2010/2010-7.cfm">Is Debt Overhang Causing Firms to Underinvest?</a> Fed Of Clevelend<br /><blockquote><strong>One measure of corporate leverage, the ratio of firms’ credit market debt to assets, recently reached a new historical high</strong> (see figures 1 and 2).</blockquote><p align="center"><img src="http://www.clevelandfed.org/research/commentary/2010/2010-7-2.gif" /></p><p align="center"><img src="http://www.clevelandfed.org/research/commentary/2010/2010-7-1.gif" /></p>I assume when you include the pension liabilities / funding levels & <a href="http://immobilienblasen.blogspot.com/2010/07/stresstesting-dax.html">"Stresstest the Goodwill"</a> the picture isn´t getting better....<br /><br /><em>Tippe mal darauf das wenn man die massiv unterfinanzierten Pensionskassen miteinbezieht sowie den <a href="http://immobilienblasen.blogspot.com/2010/07/stresstesting-dax.html">Goodwill einem Stresstest</a> unterzieht verbessert sich das Bild nicht merklich.....</em><br /><br /><strong>UPDATE:<br /></strong><br /><a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/article/ending-cash-sidelines-fallacy-redux">Ending The "Cash On The Sidelines" Fallacy (Redux)</a> ZH<br /><br /><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjGyrNDC_7zPF3h1q9incIW54H9IxxHCesINnE5QKa2PSZsy2iw1kd0RsGmm8RyffPyQ5MvDghyo_Q9s7pDwEf-iYz1oMyEfC2quP6FYP6nhe4f__mdeZ47yOyxW2BaMrERGyfi6g/s1600/corporate+cash+ww+non+financials.jpg"><img style="display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 555px; height: 333px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjGyrNDC_7zPF3h1q9incIW54H9IxxHCesINnE5QKa2PSZsy2iw1kd0RsGmm8RyffPyQ5MvDghyo_Q9s7pDwEf-iYz1oMyEfC2quP6FYP6nhe4f__mdeZ47yOyxW2BaMrERGyfi6g/s400/corporate+cash+ww+non+financials.jpg" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5506069411553464866" /></a><br /><a href="http://www.istockanalyst.com/article/viewarticle/articleid/4232113">iStockAnalyst</a><br /><p align="center"><img src="http://www.istockanalyst.com/images/articles/cash20levels2032031202010PNG2010649887.jpg" /></p><br /><p align="center"><img src="http://www.istockanalyst.com/images/articles/cash2520of20debtPNG201065012.jpg" /></p><a href="http://finance.yahoo.com/banking-budgeting/article/110218/the-biggest-lie-about-us-%20%20companies?mod=bb-budgeting&sec=topStories&pos=3&asset=&ccode=">The Biggest Lie About U.S. Companies</a> Brett Arends<br /><blockquote><strong>American companies are not in robust financial shape. Federal Reserve data show that their debts have been rising, not falling. By some measures, they are now more leveraged than at any time since the Great Depression</strong>.</blockquote><p align="center"><img style="MARGIN-RIGHT: 8px" alt="MW-AF721_domest_MD_20100802154926.jpg" src="http://l.yimg.com/a/p/fi/31/64/25.jpg" width="280" height="187" /></p><a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/article/sp-500-full-year-sources-and-uses-cash">S&P 500 Full Year Sources And Uses Of Cash</a> ZH<br /><blockquote>Yet despite consistent claims that companies have massive deleveraged, <strong>just $635 billion of debt was repaid, meaning only $35 billion of debt was actually retired! </strong>What the flow was used for, however, was to extend maturities, and to shift debt across different sections of the S&P500's balance sheet, lowering the debt cost of capital</blockquote><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi9H37zXZaGBggD0UZK_6GKEOkloF4q0OLDiJX96uPbt0HnGW4XFW9MZ5z73Fgw7SpC2nryHz9vcm6xLVshx6pkY4dVOFCdjOb4xZ7soQHt550sFhlaPkHaFTxkvgVCaMkJbnP9jA/s1600/corporate+cash+use+zh.jpg"><img style="TEXT-ALIGN: center; MARGIN: 0px auto 10px; WIDTH: 400px; DISPLAY: block; HEIGHT: 198px; CURSOR: hand" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5500768656043674802" border="0" alt="" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi9H37zXZaGBggD0UZK_6GKEOkloF4q0OLDiJX96uPbt0HnGW4XFW9MZ5z73Fgw7SpC2nryHz9vcm6xLVshx6pkY4dVOFCdjOb4xZ7soQHt550sFhlaPkHaFTxkvgVCaMkJbnP9jA/s400/corporate+cash+use+zh.jpg" /></a>I think the charts are showing a nice confirmation that the "breath" is unfortunatley not as strong as would be desirable....<br /><br /><em>Ich denke diese Charts zeigen leider recht deutlich das die "Breite" leider nicht wie wünschenswert gegeben ist.... </em><br /><br /><p><strong>2nd Update</strong><br /><br /><a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2009/06/05/business/05norris.html">Floyd Norris</a> </p><blockquote><p>It was called the “Homeland Investment Act,” and was sold to Congress as <strong>a way to spur investment in America, building plants, increasing research and development and creating jobs. It gave international companies a large one-time tax break on overseas profits, but only if the money was used for specified investments in the United States.<br /></strong><br /><strong>The law specifically said the money could not be used to raise dividends or to repurchase shares.<br /></strong><br />Now the most detailed analysis of what actually happened — using confidential government data as well as corporate reports —<strong> has estimated what happened to the $299 billion companies brought back from foreign subsidiaries</strong>. </p><br /><p><strong>About 92 percent of it went to shareholders, mostly in the form of increased share buybacks and the rest through increased dividends.</strong><br /><br /><strong>There is no evidence that companies that took advantage of the tax break — which enabled them to bring home, or repatriate, overseas profits while paying a tax rate far below the normal rate — used the money as Congress expected.<br /></strong><br />“Dell was a great example,” she added, referring to Dell Computer. “They lobbied very hard for the tax holiday. They said part of the money would be brought back to build a new plant in Winston-Salem, N.C. They did bring back $4 billion, and spent $100 million on the plant, which they admitted would have been built anyway. About two months after that, they used $2 billion for a share buyback.”<br /><br /><strong>From the B.E.A. data, the researchers were able to calculate that $300 billion in overseas profit was repatriated by American companies in 2005, when they had to pay a tax rate of just 5.25 percent, rather than the normal corporate tax rate of 35 percent. The amount was five times the normal amount of repatriations.</strong></p></blockquote>Mmhhh.... After this "spectacular" outcome last time the chances for another tax break are probably not "overwhelming"...<br /><br /><em>Uh....Nachdem die Ergebnisse beim letzten Mal höflich formuliert "dürftig" waren stehen die Ampeln auf eine ähnlich gelagerte Steuererleichterung nicht gerade auf Grün.... </em>jmfhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07573793835441139826noreply@blogger.com6tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-30868010.post-48982297228885166132010-07-28T01:26:00.000-07:002010-07-28T21:59:21.532-07:00China : State & Local Owned Enterprises vs Madoff, Ponzi, Enron......The headline is for sure a little bit "provocative" but at least in part some similarities are difficult to deny.... A nice follow up to <a href="http://immobilienblasen.blogspot.com/2010/07/another-reason-why-chinese-banking.html">Another Reason Why The Chinese Banking Financial Strength Rating Is Just Beating Iceland & Kyrgyzstan.....</a> Looking more & more like an injuste to Kyrgyzstan & Co.....;-)<br /><br /><em>Die Überschrift ist sicher ne leichte Übertreibung..... Trotz allem kommt man schwer darum herum zumindest in Teilbereichen gewisse Gemeinsamkeiten zu entdecken.....Nette Ergänzung zu <a href="http://immobilienblasen.blogspot.com/2010/07/another-reason-why-chinese-banking.html">Another Reason Why The Chinese Banking Financial Strength Rating Is Just Beating Iceland & Kyrgyzstan.....</a> Inzwischen fast als Beleidigung Islands zu bezeichnen.... ;-)</em><br /><br /><img style="TEXT-ALIGN: center; MARGIN: 0px auto 10px; WIDTH: 350px; DISPLAY: block; HEIGHT: 256px; CURSOR: hand" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5493750260270553634" border="0" alt="" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhJxogHjsuxiJDHtwbS3eEluWK2-O3qb8wffgNmBv4vByw__V8pKSZfMDMXxMZIbaI8_0ZSC86iNoBir-yz2noZgi6XW19Qx56ynJ-bzEYvxgbgLPypUMEJ_eVLpLz1A1DHPaYaQg/s400/china+image.jpg" /><br /><a href="http://www.voxeu.org/index.php?q=node/5353">Just how risky are China’s housing markets?</a> VoxEU <blockquote>We collected data on all the residential land parcel auctions in Beijing dating back to Q1 2003, and created a constant quality price index for Beijing residential land, controlling for a number of location and site quality variables that are described in Wu et al. (2010).<br /><br /><strong>Figure 5 shows that real, constant quality land values increased by over 750% since 2003 in the Chinese capital, with more than half of that rise occurring over the past two years. </strong>Additional regression analysis showed <strong>that state-owned enterprises controlled by the central government played a meaningful role in this increase, as prices were 27% higher on the parcels they won at auction compared to otherwise equivalent land sites purchased by other investors</strong>.</blockquote><p align="center"><img alt="" src="http://www.voxeu.org/sites/default/files/image/GyourkoFig5.gif" width="650" height="485" /></p><blockquote><strong>The role of state-owned enterprises also is potentially worrisome</strong>. It could be that these entities are superior investors and are purchasing sites that are of especially high quality in ways that we cannot control for in our empirical analysis. However, it also could be that moral hazard is at work here, as these entities are thought to have access to low cost capital from state-owned banks and may believe they are too big to fail. If this is the driving force,<strong> then prices are being bid up as one arm of the government buys from another.</strong></blockquote>More on the same topic.....<br /><br /><em>Mehr zum gleichen Thema.....</em><br /><br /><a href="http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2010/07/20/291836/meanwhile-in-the-chinese-property-market/">Meanwhile, in the Chinese property market…</a> FT Alphaville<br /><blockquote>And once you’ve picked your eyeballs off the floor after seeing that 800 per cent figure, do note the interesting finding about the SOEs.<br /><br />In particular, the paper says that a ‘meaningful fraction’ of the rise in prices was driven by the few but huge companies backed by central government — ‘central SOEs’. And central SOEs are getting more influential in the market — see chart:</blockquote><br /><img src="http://av.r.ftdata.co.uk/files/2010/07/China_land.jpg" width="1052" height="606" /> <blockquote>And as the paper continues, by way of explanation:<br /><br />…Central <strong>SOE developers pay high prices relative to the values of nearby housing unit sales prices. </strong>That suggests these particular buyers simply pay more and that this does not merely reflect omitted quality effects. Moral hazard arising from these entities believing they are too important to fail, combined with their access to low cost capital from state-owned banks, also could help explain their bidding behavior… It remains an open question as to why central SOE developers became so much more active in housing development over the past few years.</blockquote><img src="http://av.r.ftdata.co.uk/files/2010/07/China_SOE1-e1279639647451.jpg" /><br /><br /><a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/article/here-comes-real-stress-only-27-china-project-loans-be-repaid-full">Here Comes The Real Stress: Only 27% Of China Project Loans To Be Repaid In Full </a>ZH<br /><blockquote><strong>Chinese banks may struggle to recoup about 23 percent of the 7.7 trillion yuan ($1.1 trillion) they’ve lent to finance local government infrastructure projects, according to a person with knowledge of data collected by the nation’s regulator<br /></strong><br />Local governments set up the financing vehicles to fund projects such as highways and airports due to limits on their ability to directly borrow money. The central government this year restricted borrowing on concern money isn’t being used for viable projects.<br /><br /><strong>Only 27 percent of the loans to the financing vehicles can be repaid in full by cash generated by the projects they funded</strong>, the person said</blockquote><br /><a href="http://www.blogger.com/Here">Chinese rating agency criticises … Chinese rating agencies</a> FT Alphaville <blockquote>July 27 (Bloomberg) — <strong>Credit ratings assigned to yuan- denominated bonds issued on behalf of local governments in China are misleading and don’t reflect risks investors face, Dagong Global Credit Rating Co.’s chairman said.<br /></strong><br /><strong>Local government-backed borrowers shop around for the best rankings</strong> from Chinese ratings companies and “whoever gives them a better rating gets the business,” Guan Jianzhong, chairman of privately owned Dagong, one of China’s five official ratings agencies, said in a Bloomberg Television interview in Beijing yesterday. “This is very dangerous.”</blockquote><img style="TEXT-ALIGN: center; MARGIN: 0px auto 10px; WIDTH: 290px; DISPLAY: block; HEIGHT: 335px; CURSOR: hand" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5460020745251160562" border="0" alt="" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEii_BLnq1Amkag4M3bAUAFMQXO_PGLQaZZZ956sjNY4NCXi32aRJWvOyfSp0QlqRaxUZgIXJMPoRhhPXAWgU3MGItEZe7O4tMAiqOMbbn_oAdSyaYc4sE31RDc6W1FL-D7Wks7xEw/s400/china+local+gov.gif" /><br />Needless to say that every large bank has China Inc. as a majority owner.....<br /><br /><em>Denke man muß nicht extra erwähnen das zudem jeder der großen Banken unter Mehrheitskontrolle des chinesischen Staates steht.....</em><br /><br /><a href="http://mpettis.com/2010/07/the-pboc-can%e2%80%99t-easily-raise-interest-rates/">The PBoC can’t easily raise interest rates</a> M. Pettis / China Financial Markets<br /><blockquote>One of the <strong>problems with a severely repressed financial system, especially one with rapid credit expansion, is that there tends to be a huge amount of capital misallocation supported by borrowing, and in an increasing number of cases it is only the artificially-reduced borrowing costs that allow these investments to remain viable. I worry that even if the PBoC wanted to raise rates, it would not be able to do so without exposing how dependent borrowers are on artificially cheap capital.<br /></strong><br />Take the <strong>most obvious example, the PBoC itself</strong>. The central bank officially has about <strong>$2.5 trillion in reserves</strong>. The PBoC has funded this position with an equivalent amount of RMB liabilities, which makes it very vulnerable to changes in the value of the currency.<br /><br />Weirdly enough, although the numbers are huge, it has proven difficult to convince anyone that the PBoC is not the richest institution in the world, and that it is actually very vulnerable to big losses<br /><br /><strong>The problem for the PBoC occurs not just because of the currency mismatch but also because it needs repressed funding costs to keep it profitable</strong>. How much do the PBoC foreign currency assets earn? I would guess probably between 3% and 4%, maybe less. The RMB funding cost, on the other hand, is roughly between 1.5% and 2.5%. This leaves the PBoC with a net positive carry of between 1% and 2%.<br /><br /><strong>If the RMB appreciates by as little as 2% a year, in other words, the PBoC runs a negative carry on its assets. Every further 1% increase in interest rates, or additional 1% rise in the value of the RMB, then, erodes its capital by at least $25 billion</strong> (annually, if it happens through an increase in interest rates).<br /><br /><strong>Many years of very low cost borrowing has created a huge dependency on low interest rates among SOEs, local governments, and other creditors of the bond markets and the banks (not to mention the banks themselves), all of whom are directly or indirectly funded by long-suffering households.<br /><br />As I discussed in an entry several weeks ago, repressing the interest rate is the equivalent of granting hidden debt forgiveness</strong></blockquote>Moral Hazard everywhere..... <br /><br /><em>Moral Hazard wohin das Auge blickt...... </em><br /><br /><strong>UPDATE:</strong><br /><br /><a href="http://noir.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aywZY2fdgICQ">ICBC May Raise $6.6 Billion, Adding to China Bank Share Sales</a><br /><blockquote><strong>ICBC’s offer brings to more than $60 billion the amount China’s five largest banks are raising after a record $1.4 trillion in lending last year </strong>put pressure on capital levels.<br /><br /><strong>Bank of China Ltd. has also said it plans a CNY60 billion rights issue in Shanghai and Hong Kong and China Construction Bank Corp. is planning a CNY75 billion rights issue in both markets</strong></blockquote>I assume the term "Drop in the bucket" fits perfectly....<br /><br /><em>Denke die Bezeichnung "Tropfen auf den heissen Stein" dürfte passen....</em>jmfhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07573793835441139826noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-30868010.post-80419586772193357322010-07-26T03:01:00.000-07:002010-07-26T08:22:09.133-07:00Joke Of The Day From ECB´s Smaghi "€ More Stable Than Deutsche Mark"Quotes like this totally "neglecting" the almost € 1 trillion fund to "rescue" the €, IMF involvement, first "QE aka Montizing Of Debt" ever & including the once in a lifetime "elevated" ( at least by Bundesbank standarts... ) CPI close to 4% after the reunification are not suitable to regain at least a few percentage points of the already "diminished" credibility... At least in Germany... ;-)<br /><br /><em>Wenn man Zitate wie diese lesen muß, die zum einen den fast 1 Billion € schweren Rettungsfonds, der zur Stabilisierung des € notwending gewesen ist, und den Sündefall schlechthin ( Aufkauf von Staatsanleihen ) "ausblenden" sowie gleichzeitig die im Zuge der Wiedervereinigung entstandene Sondersituation von extrem erhöhten CPI Daten von knapp 4% komplett unberücksichtigt läßt, muß sich nicht wundern wenn auch noch der kümmerliche Rest in Sachen Glaubwürdigkeit langsam aber sicher "flöten" geht..Zumindest in Deutschland....;-)<br /></em><em><p></em></p><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEijyYBHr4JqpbPyoR40B2jTHwU9Gdeq6EA_1Fwb_etg_4s5mj-SaTT61DxWlW1_kzBLgiWNkW4FazozO-MG5N7pknsOrlRksFrbWf68Pu-RbUEaGJI5gKgY5P-L3HLf-5dw8hlPfQ/s1600/carton+honesty+2.jpg"><em><img style="TEXT-ALIGN: center; MARGIN: 0px auto 10px; WIDTH: 335px; DISPLAY: block; HEIGHT: 380px; CURSOR: hand" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5498189098904926994" border="0" alt="" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEijyYBHr4JqpbPyoR40B2jTHwU9Gdeq6EA_1Fwb_etg_4s5mj-SaTT61DxWlW1_kzBLgiWNkW4FazozO-MG5N7pknsOrlRksFrbWf68Pu-RbUEaGJI5gKgY5P-L3HLf-5dw8hlPfQ/s400/carton+honesty+2.jpg" /></em></a><em></em><a href="http://www.businessweek.com/news/2010-07-26/bini-smaghi-says-imf-eu-package-offers-best-route-for-greece.html">Bloomberg</a><blockquote><p><strong>The euro has proven to be a more stable currency than the Deutsche Mark in the 11 years since its introduction,</strong> the board member said in the FAZ commentary. </p></blockquote><blockquote><p><strong>The average inflation rate in those 11 years is lower</strong> <strong>than in all countries in the monetary union in the 10 years before, even in Germany</strong>, Bini Smaghi said, according to the newspaper.</p></blockquote>Sometimes it´s better to stay silent.....<br /><br /><em>"Reden ist Silber, Schweigen ist GOLD".......</em>jmfhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07573793835441139826noreply@blogger.com4tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-30868010.post-81357260607872386422010-07-23T06:08:00.000-07:002010-07-26T06:02:24.199-07:00Only 35% Of Survey Participants Expect The Stess Test To Be Credible....I´m surprised that the rate is above 20 percent... ;-)<br /><br /><em>Ich bin ehrlich überrascht das immerhin 35% dem Stresstest eine Aussagekraft zubilligen.... ;-) </em><br /><br /><a href="http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2010/07/23/296596/market-gives-banks-a-‘b-ahead-of-the-stress-tests/?updatedcontent=1">Goldman Sachs</a> via FT Alphaville<br /><p align="center"><img src="http://av.r.ftdata.co.uk/files/2010/07/stresstest6.jpg" /></p><blockquote><strong>It’s the results of a Goldman Sachs survey of 376 mostly-European market “participants” ahead of the results</strong></blockquote><br /><a title="View GS Stress Test on Scribd" href="http://www.scribd.com/doc/34764310/GS-Stress-Test" style="margin: 12px auto 6px auto; font-family: Helvetica,Arial,Sans-serif; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; font-size: 14px; line-height: normal; font-size-adjust: none; font-stretch: normal; -x-system-font: none; display: block; text-decoration: underline;">GS Stress Test</a> <object id="doc_810426458277911" name="doc_810426458277911" height="500" width="100%" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" data="http://d1.scribdassets.com/ScribdViewer.swf" style="outline:none;" > <param name="movie" value="http://d1.scribdassets.com/ScribdViewer.swf"> <param name="wmode" value="opaque"> <param name="bgcolor" value="#ffffff"> <param name="allowFullScreen" value="true"> <param name="allowScriptAccess" value="always"> <param name="FlashVars" value="document_id=34764310&access_key=key-te6itawcz1ge8fsccxd&page=1&viewMode=list"> <embed id="doc_810426458277911" name="doc_810426458277911" src="http://d1.scribdassets.com/ScribdViewer.swf?document_id=34764310&access_key=key-te6itawcz1ge8fsccxd&page=1&viewMode=list" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" allowscriptaccess="always" allowfullscreen="true" height="500" width="100%" wmode="opaque" bgcolor="#ffffff"></embed> </object> <br />H/T <a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/article/european-interbank-liquidity-worst-august-goldman-sees-89-stress-pass-rate">Zero Hedge</a><br /><br />Get ready for at least a weekend full of spin......<br /><br /><em>Man kann sich jetzt schon einmal mindestens auf ein Wochenende voller "Spin" einstellen.....</em><br /><br /><strong>UPDATE:</strong><br /><br />I assume after the results the percentage of believers hasn´t increased "significantly"....<br /><br /><em>Kann mir gut vorstellen das nach Bekanntgabe der Ergebnisse die Glaubwürdigkeit des Tests nicht "explosionsartig" hinzugewonnen hat....</em><br /><br /><a href="http://stress-test.c-ebs.org/documents/Summaryreport.pdf">Stress Test Results</a> CEBS<br /><br /><strong><blockquote>5 Cajas ( Spain ), Ate Bank (Greece ), Hypo ( Germany ) failed....</blockquote></strong><blockquote><strong>CEBS SAYS 7 BANKS HAD OVERALL SHORTFALL OF EU3.5 BLN OF TIER 1 </strong></blockquote><a href="http://www.spiegel.de/flash/flash-23950.html">Stress Test Interactive Graph</a> Spiegel<br /><br /><a href="http://timiacono.com/index.php/2010/07/23/apparently-not-too-stressful/">Apparently Not Too Stressful</a> The Mess That Greenspan Made<br /><br /><a href="http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2010/07/26/296871/stress-tests-sovereign-support-senseless/?updatedcontent=1">Stress test’s sovereign support = senseless<br /></a><strong><blockquote>the test parameters being rather cynically calibrated to achieve the desired result.</blockquote></strong><a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/jpmorgan-shreds-the-stress-tests-says-54-banks-should-have-failed-and-that-investors-will-lose-confidence-2010-7">JPMorgan Shreds The Stress Tests, Says 54 Banks Should Have Failed, And That Investors Will Lose Confidence</a> BI<br /><br /><a href="http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2010/07/26/296991/gaming-the-stress-tests-101/?updatedcontent=1">Gaming the stress tests 101</a> FT Alphaville<br /><br /><a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/article/morgan-stanley-stress-tests-lots-missed-opportunities">Morgan Stanley On Stress Tests: "Lots Of Missed Opportunities"</a> ZH<br /><br /><a title="View Van Steenis European Stress Tests on Scribd" href="http://www.scribd.com/doc/34869144/Van-Steenis-European-Stress-Tests" style="margin: 12px auto 6px auto; font-family: Helvetica,Arial,Sans-serif; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; font-size: 14px; line-height: normal; font-size-adjust: none; font-stretch: normal; -x-system-font: none; display: block; text-decoration: underline;">Van Steenis European Stress Tests</a> <object id="doc_258678879324358" name="doc_258678879324358" height="500" width="100%" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" data="http://d1.scribdassets.com/ScribdViewer.swf" style="outline:none;" > <param name="movie" value="http://d1.scribdassets.com/ScribdViewer.swf"> <param name="wmode" value="opaque"> <param name="bgcolor" value="#ffffff"> <param name="allowFullScreen" value="true"> <param name="allowScriptAccess" value="always"> <param name="FlashVars" value="document_id=34869144&access_key=key-spakjv3qnj8sd2vrw47&page=1&viewMode=list"> <embed id="doc_258678879324358" name="doc_258678879324358" src="http://d1.scribdassets.com/ScribdViewer.swf?document_id=34869144&access_key=key-spakjv3qnj8sd2vrw47&page=1&viewMode=list" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" allowscriptaccess="always" allowfullscreen="true" height="500" width="100%" wmode="opaque" bgcolor="#ffffff"></embed> </object>jmfhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07573793835441139826noreply@blogger.com0