tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-30868010.post6020510564817492975..comments2007-12-06T20:43:14.114-08:00jmfhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07573793835441139826noreply@blogger.comBlogger5125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-30868010.post-29377664853402920652007-12-06T20:43:00.000-08:002007-12-06T20:43:00.000-08:00Moin Barley,<BR/><BR/>"There are however more risks. In both I see added "civil" uncertainties and inflation."<BR/><BR/>I also think that this issue is not very well covered so far in the media. Sometimes it is not bad to remember that China is not a democatic place..... <BR/><BR/>"these folks have never seen an '87 style crash and all those folks opening up retail accounts at 100k new accounts per month will be miffed if they loose 30-40%"<BR/><BR/>This also fits to most fund managers in the western world :-)jmfhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07573793835441139826noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-30868010.post-86463801808970540432007-12-06T11:01:00.000-08:002007-12-06T11:01:00.000-08:00As an Aid to a Chm of a (very)large global concern many years ago we hosted an increasing amount of interest w/ China. The spring board was HK. In fact I hired a nice Chinese lady for a four day immersion course on Chinese etique for the senior staff to take. While the exercise was viewed as stupid at the time, it was rather fortuitious - one of the chaps is now based in Shanghai running a major bank division. There is no doubt in my mind China and India are places to be. There are however more risks. In both I see added "civil" uncertainties and inflation. Food is a real issue in China. Everybody (mostly men) is leaving or has left the farms to work in the urban centers. <BR/>With the rise of the middle class in both there are definate opportunites. Here is one - the Chinese are welcoming some western practices like food prep and social eating (western style) I have no doubt that the market for, say, sterling flatware will rocket in the next five to seven years. Probably more so than gold trinkets. Fashion footwear is also a bright spot as is leatherwear such as jackets and accessories.<BR/>My sense is that some are obsessed to get in before it is too late - at any cost. This euphoria is dumb short term thinking.<BR/>w/r/t the chinese stock market, these folks have never seen an '87 style crash and all those folks opening up retail accounts at 100k new accounts per month will be miffed if they loose 30-40%<BR/><BR/>thx for the kind words<BR/><BR/>BarleyAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-30868010.post-70238674697832447402007-12-06T09:52:00.000-08:002007-12-06T09:52:00.000-08:00Moin,<BR/><BR/>thanks for the "ground report"<BR/><BR/>"The driver I had a few months ago had six years salary in the hot stock market a resultant of borrowing money from his father three years ago..."<BR/><BR/>I assume after the latest 20 percent correction in November even this guy is getting a little bit nervous....<BR/><BR/>In the long run run i´m also bullish on China and especially the Yuan like Jim Rogers. <BR/><BR/>But in the short term it is really a little bit frothy out there....<BR/><BR/>A friend of mine who works for a one of the biggest German Banks will visit Hong Kong during the next view weeks. He won the trip as an incentive by advising clients to invest in China via HK. <BR/><BR/>I hope for him that at the end of the year the deposit receipt are not so deep in the red. <BR/><BR/>The timing was lousy to say the least.... <BR/><BR/>But with a deadline for the incentive there was probably no time to wait for the correction....jmfhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07573793835441139826noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-30868010.post-11026928068377206802007-12-06T08:40:00.000-08:002007-12-06T08:40:00.000-08:00Moin J-M,<BR/><BR/>“To me this market is a bubble market fueled by expectation...”<BR/><BR/>I think the previous post by Barley summed it up very nicely. It should remind all of us of another famous shipping company IPO from stock market history:<BR/><BR/>http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/South_sea_bubbleYogihttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04251205351977033460noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-30868010.post-74219435371940348962007-12-06T07:49:00.000-08:002007-12-06T07:49:00.000-08:00170 times. Wow! What I have observed in my travels is that Asians (generally) do have a greater affinity for gambeling. I have no facts to support this but it is just my general observation. And with this personal view I would contend that subscriptions to new offers and current trading is not based on financials but rather on a risk/reward framework (probabilities). That being said, who can deny an investment climate which is grounded in an economy that is experiencing 11-12% growth.<BR/>If the decision makers move from "prudent" to "tighter" in the money supply/interest rates this will no doubt dampen any unreported inflation as well as rampant growth.<BR/>The confluence of lower growth and change in the risk reward ratio will, in my view give some cause for concern for stocks sitting atop stratospheric multiples. Indeed, I suspect like chips on a gaming table they can be removed in one swipe when risks get to high. The driver I had a few months ago had six years salary in the hot stock market a resultant of borrowing money from his father three years ago...is he a long term investor who looks for value?<BR/>To me this market is a bubble market fueled by expectation...<BR/><BR/>BarleyAnonymousnoreply@blogger.com