Monday, December 22, 2008

Merry Christmas / Frohe Weihnachten

I´ll be taking a few days off over the holidays & the new year and wish every reader & their families a merry christmas and a healthy new year.

Ich werde mir über die Feiertage mal eine Auszeit gönnen und wünsche allen Lesern & deren Familien ein besinnliches Weihnachtsfest und ein gesundes neues Jahr.

I guess "Bad Santa" has to work overtime this year........

Tippe mal das "Bad Santa"dieses Jahr ein paar mal mehr ausrücken muß........

Sunday, December 21, 2008

Number Of The Day "Japan´s Export Plunge Record 27 Percent"

WOW! The strong Yen didn´t help......... I expect that the entire currency complex has the potential to become the next "battleground" ( hopefully not combined with "trade wars" see Has Beggar Thy Neighbor Started? via Naked Capitalism & The Major Risks for 2009: Tariffs, Wars, Currency, etc. from Merrill Lynch's David Rosenberg via Infectious Greed)........ The race to the bottom is already underway..... Let´s hope that we won´t see a crash of a major currency ( british Pound )...... At least there will be always a bull market ( one weak vs another less weak currency)..... Got Gold......?

Donnerwetter! Bleibt zu hoffen das wir als vergleichbare Exportnation etwas besser abschneiden...... Denke den Japanern wird gerade jetzt der erstarkte Yen nicht sonderlich gefallen..... Ich befürchte das uns das Thema Wechselkurse in den kommenden Jahren desöfteren heimsuchen wird ( hoffnetlich nicht auch in Form von "Handelskriegen" siehe auch Has Beggar Thy Neighbor Started? via Naked Capitalism & The Major Risks for 2009: Tariffs, Wars, Currency, etc. von Merrill Lynch's David Rosenberg via Infectious Greed)...... Der Versuch die Währung möglichst schwach zu halten ist weltweit bereits im vollen Gange. Ich würde mir nur wünschen das wir das ohne Kollaps eine der größeren Währungen überstehen. Denke da besonders an das britische Pfund...... Immerhin ermöglichen diese Märkte immer einen garantierten Bullenmarkt ( schwache vs einer wenigen schwachen Währung ) ...... Got GOLD?

Thanks to Bespoke

Japan Exports Plunge Record 27% as Recession Deepens Dec. 22 (Bloomberg) -- Japan’s exports plunged the most on record in November as global demand for cars and electronics collapsed, signaling more factory shutdowns and job cuts are likely as the recession deepens.

Exports fell 26.7 percent from a year earlier, the Finance Ministry said today in Tokyo. That was more than the 22.3 percent decline estimated by economists and the sharpest since comparable data were made available in 1980.

Shipments to the U.S. slid an unprecedented 34 percent and sales to China slumped the most in 13 years

The government today lowered its assessment of the world’s second-largest economy, saying it’s “worsening” for the first time since 2002. Gross domestic product shrank in the past two quarters, sending Japan into its first recession since 2001.

Toyota, Honda Motor Co. and Sony Corp. are among the companies that are shedding thousands of workers and closing production lines as profits dwindle. Car exports slid 32 percent last month, the most ever, and semiconductors slumped 29 percent, the ministry said.

UPDATE : Toyota Forecasts First Operating Loss in 71 Years on Yen, Sales

Compounding the drop in demand is the stronger yen, which erodes overseas profits. Every 1 yen gain against the dollar and euro trims Toyota’s annual operating profit by 40 billion yen and 6 billion yen, according to the company. The carmaker in November based its second-half earnings outlook on 100 yen to the dollar and 130 yen to the euro.

Today’s report showed the global recession is spreading to the emerging markets that propped up exports as demand from the U.S. and Europe evaporated. Exports to Asia fell 27 percent, the most in 22 years. Shipments to China, Japan’s largest trading partner, tumbled 25 percent, the steepest decline since 1995.

Exports to Europe slid 31 percent, the second-most ever.

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Wednesday, December 17, 2008

Banana Republik Watch "Korea Edition"

Oh boy....... At least they have still a few people left in Korea paying attention to analysts at all....... Sooner or later they will realize that they very often provide the best value as an contrary indicator ( see Wall Street Finest ) .......

Leider kein Witz...... Immerhin gibt in Korea anscheinend noch einige die überhaupt einen Pfifferling auf das Urteil von sogenannten Analysten setzen....... Ich nutze Sie seit Jahren nur noch als Kontraindikator bzw. zur wenn ich mal wieder was aus den Rubriken Satire & Science Fiction lesen möchte....... Spare mir so das Abo der "Titanic"...... :-).... Hier ein paar Beispiele ( siehe Wall Street Finest )......

South Korea to investigate foreign brokerages (FT) South Korean’s broking regulator is to
investigate all “sell” recommendations by foreign brokerages
made in the last three months in the wake of a fall of nearly 40 per cent in the benchmark Kospi index this year.

The Korean Securities Dealers Association said on Wednesday it had asked 19 foreign brokerages, including JP Morgan, Goldman Sachs and Credit Suisse, to submit all “sell” reports on Korean shares issued between September and November.

“The public consensus is that foreign research reports are having a negative impact on stock prices
,” the KSDA said. “The public see some problems about their fairness so we want to review the reports.”

The association said it expected to receive the “sell” reports by the end of this week, and would review “whether their reports are fair or whether their sell calls were based on proper reasons.”

the association is not asking for research reports from local brokerages, which rarely issue “sell” recommendations
The KSDA conducted a similar probe into both domestic and foreign brokerages two years ago.

The investigation follows growing complaints by local companies against foreign research reports recommending “sell” on their shares.

In October, the FSS warned JP Morgan about a research report recommending that investors sell Hana Financial Group shares, saying that the recommendation was based on “too conservative” non-performing loans ratio.
JP Morgan later terminated coverage of Hana, saying that it cannot have access to necessary information critical to its research. JP Morgan declined to comment on the case.

In September, Goldman Sachs issued a “sell” report on Kookmin Bank, the country’s biggest commercial lender. Kookmin immediately replaced Goldman Sachs with Merrill Lynch as its adviser for selling treasury shares.

Foreign brokerages in Korea have long been plagued by suspicions that “sell” calls are linked to short-selling activities. Financial regulators have undertaken a separate investigation into short-selling but the results have yet to be announced.

Foreign brokers dispute these claims. “It is nonsense. We have strict standards against such practices. We have a strong firewall between research and investment departments,” said a senior official at a foreign brokerage. “We wonder if the probe is really to protect investors.”

The investigation has sparked strong resistance among foreign brokerages, whose reports are increasingly influential in the local stock market.

“We are completely flabbergasted by this move. Analysts independently issue their opinion for institutional investors, based on their research and insight into the companies. It is totally up to our clients and investors whether or not to take the view,” another foreign brokerage said.

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Tuesday, December 16, 2008

Number Of The Day " European Volvo Net New Truck Orders Now Negative"

I have a strong feeling that we will see similar order intakes from other parts of the world & and different industries in the not so distant future...... I cannot help but somehow the erosion ( or implosion ) of the backlock from the homebuilders comes to my mind....... I assume we will see a comeback of "vendor financing" ...... I have already heard chatter on this topic in several conference calls from GE, Siemens, Boeing, EADS etc...... Wouldn´t be the first time this "strategy" will be backfiring down the road..... But with very few companies having a strong balance sheet going into this long downturn there is at least some hope this won´t get out of control.... But with the culture to prefer short term gains still not dead .......

Ich bin mir ziemlich sicher das wir ähnliche Orderdaten demnächst auch aus anderen Teilen der Welt und leider auch aus anderen Branchen sehen werden....... Das ganze ruft in mir Erinnerungen an die Implosion der angeblich vollen Auftragsbücher bei den Homebuildern wach....... Ich bin mir ziemlich sicher das wir demnächst ein Comeback der Lieferantefinanzierung sehen werden....... Konkrete Aussagen zu diesemThema gab es bereits von Siemens, GE, Boeing und EADS...... Wäre nicht das erste mal das diese Strategie auf lange Sicht mit hohen Risiken verbunden ist. Da aber kaum ein Unternehmen momentna ne starke Bilanz vorzuweisen hat dürften uns Auswüchse wie in der Vergangenheit ( erinnere an die Telekomzulieferer die nachher auf Mrd. an Forderungen sitzen geblieben sind ) erspart bleiben......

Reuters World number two truckmaker Volvo said on Tuesday deliveries had tumbled 21 percent year-on-year in November and that its order book was shrinking rapidly amid a sharp market contraction.

Volvo, whose brands include Renault, Nissan Diesel and Mack as well as its own name, said deliveries fell 42 percent in its biggest market, Europe, and 22 percent in North America.

Volvo has already suffered the effects of this decline, reporting in late October a 100 percent fall in order bookings after clearing its books of uncertain orders and cancellations ( see Number / Shocker Of The Day "Volvo New Truck Orders"..... ) . .

Volvo said a weak order trend from the third quarter had continued

with the number of cancelled orders in October and November eclipsing new orders by some 1,800 trucks in Europe.

"When we saw zero order intake in the third quarter, it looked like this couldn't get any worse -- but it has," said an analyst who asked not to be identified.

"A negative order intake in Europe, that probably had not been anticipated by the market."

> To end on a positive note..... Volvo is up almost 4 percent on this kind of news ( and 30% from the bottom a few weeks ago ) and all competitors ( Scania, MAN, Daimler ) are also in the green.......

> Nach soviel Doom & Gloom ist es zumindest mehr als bemerkenswert das Volvo fast 4% im Plus notiert ( und nebenbei bemerkt satte 30% vom Tief vor einigen Wochen ) und auch alle relevanten Wettbewerber ( Scania, MAN, Daimler ) im grünen Bereich sind......

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Monday, December 15, 2008

Chart Of The Day "Dow Vs Gold"

The following chart was buried in the comments from my previous post on gold (Gold’s Post-Bubble Performance In The UK, US And Japan. ). I think this perspective on the valuation of gold deserves "deserves" a sperate post. Further blogging activity will be light until 2009

Der nachfolgende Chart war in den Kommentaen zum letzten Goldposting ( Gold’s Post-Bubble Performance In The UK, US And Japan. ) vergraben. Denke der ist so aussagekräftig das das ich Ihn nochmal gesondert poste. Meine Blogginaktivität wird über die Feiertage bis Anfang 2009 minimal sein.

Chart Of The Day
How significant is this bear market? It all depends on how you measure. When measured in US dollars, the Dow currently trades 39.5% off its October 2007 record high. However, when measured with that other world currency (gold), the picture is actually more dismal. To help illustrate the point, today's chart presents the Dow divided by the price of one ounce of gold. This results in what is referred to as the Dow / gold ratio or the cost of the Dow in ounces of gold. For example, it currently takes 10.5 ounces of gold to “buy the Dow.” This is considerably less that the 44.8 ounces it took back in 1999.

When priced in gold, the US stock market has been in a bear market for the entire 21st century.

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Thursday, December 11, 2008

This Ponzi Scheme Won´t Get A Bailout.......

Unlike others...... I still hope that at least the $ 50 billion number won´t be confirmed but it really looks like this story has the potential to rival the failed auto bailout. Even if the real number is only a fraction this will send shockwaves trough the hedge fund industry and could lead to much more forced selling..... At least the players now burned with billions call themselves "smart money" so we really shoulnd´t feel any mercy ( especially after you have read the "Cassandra Does Tokyo" or "Ft Alphaville" link. Naked Shorts back in 2001 questioned this how "Bernie" Madoff "created" his performance Madoff tops charts;skeptics ask how ).... On the auto topic it wouldn´t surprise me if we will see a TARP solution for the automakers during the next few days..... Wouldn´t be the first u turn from Paulson... :-)

Das wird ein Schneelballsystem sein das im Gegensatz zu anderen an Wall Street nicht rausgehauen wird..... Ich hoffe insgeheim immer noch das die Summe von 50 Mrd $ nicht bestätigt wird aber nichtsdestotrotz hat diese Geschichte das Zeug selbst den gescheiterten Rettungsversuch der US Autoindustrie zu toppen. Selbst wenn die Summe um einiges geringer ausfällt wird dieser Vorfall zu einem weiteren massiven Vertrauensverlust und einem Run auf die Hedge Fonds und damit zu weiteren massivsten Zwangsverkäufen führen...... Dab zu den Geschädigten wohl in erster Linie andere Hedge Fonds gehören hält sich mein Mitgefühl aber sehr in Grenzen ( besonders nachdem man den Insiderbericht von "Cassandra Does Tokyo" & "FT Alphaville" Link gelesen hat die klar belegen das die ausgewiesenen Gewinne seit Jahren nicht stimmig sein können. Siehe auch diese Schlagzeile aus dem Jahr 2001 von Naked Shorts Madoff tops charts;skeptics ask how)........In Sachen Autoindustrie würde es mich nicht wundern wenn plötzlich ( binnen der nächsten Tage ) doch noch eine Lösung im Rahmen der TARP Gelder gefunden wird..... Wäre ja nicht die erste 180 Grad Wendung von Paulson & Co......

Bernie Madoff: The Indictment Original Filing / Original Anklagegeschrift via Henry Blodget / Clusterstock A MUST READ!

He Madoff with how much??? FT Alphaville

“This guy has managed to produce 1-1.2% PER MONTH, year after year after year…” Quote from a ( now money losing ...) client on May 2 2008 ...... via FT Alphaville

Madoff ‘Big Lie’ Hits Fairfield Sentry, Kingate Funds Bloomberg

A $50 Billion Fraud? So Where is the Money? Naked Capitalism

Ex-Nasdaq-Chef wegen Milliarden-Betrugsverdacht festgenommen Der Spiegel

The Madoff Complaint Calculated Risk

Bernie Comes Out of the Closet Cassandra Does Tokyo

> Hard to believe that this "likable" person has probably committed the "mother Of All Ponzi Schemes"....

> Fällt einem schwer zu glauben das dieser "sympatische" ältere Herr die "Mutter aller Schneeballsysteme durchgezogen hat.....

> Too bad that Madoff couldn´t hide his losses under some kind of level 3 accounting......

> Zu dumm das im Gegensatz zu den Banken Madoff seine Verluste nicht hinter der Level 3 Bilanzkosmetik verschleiern konnte......

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Tuesday, December 09, 2008

Gold’s Post-Bubble Performance In The UK, US And Japan.

I still think that we will see deflation in the US and other parts of the world but in the end i think the report from Dresdner is spot on....... Needless to say that i call myself a goldbug and have "little" faith in any fiat currency...... It´s probably helpful ( often overlooked ) to note that Gold in reaching new highs in almost every other world currency besides the $ ( see Goldchart in €, British Pound, Swiss Franc, Yen etc ) . Would be nice to see a goldchart vs the Icelandic Krona or the Forint......

Ich bin nach wie vor der Meinung das es in naher Zukunft eine Deflation in weiten Teilen der Welt geben wird. Im Endeffekt wird es aber zu dem im Dresdner Report geschilderten Ergebnis kommen...... Wohl überflüssig zu erwähnen das ich ein Goldbug bin und mein Misstrauen hinsichtlich Währungen nicht nur auf den $ ( obwohl dort extrem ausgeprägt ...) beschränkt ist.....Werde zumindest nicht mehr ganz so offen belächelt wie noch vor einigen Jahren..... PS: Bei der Qualität der heimischen Wirtschaftspresse ist es wenig überraschend das oftmals lediglich der Goldpreis in $ behandelt wird. Dabei wird wie nicht anders zu erwarten in schöner Regelmäßigkeit ausser Acht gelassen das Gold in den anderen Leitwährungen momentan nahe historischen Hochs notiert ( siehe Goldchart in €, British Pound, Swiss Franc, Yen etc ) . Habe leider keinen Goldchart vs islänsiche Krone oder ungarischen Forint auftreiben können......

Thanks again to Wall Street Follies

FT Alphaville

One way to combat the mess of a bubble popping is, as Dresdner puts it,“reducing confidence in the value of money” — i.e. creating inflation.

What the rise in the US and UK gold price tells us is that those two countries (assuming gold is in fact acting as an inflationary hedge here) are not shying away from their inflationary task.

They are, unlike Japan, really going for it.

Dresdner - Gold performance

Back to Dresdner:

Japan had no Japanese precedent to study. The last experience of deflation was buried so far in the past that anyone predicting a recurrence could be safely dismissed as a crank. The BoJ was dominated by inflation vigilantes who bitterly rued inflating the bubble and were determined at all costs to avoid a repeat. They remained far behind the curve and allowed growth in the monetary base to collapse. The contrast with the United States could not be clearer. Ben Bernanke is an authority on the historical experiences of deflation, and in his famous speech of 2002 laid out his playbook for all to see.
And to conclude:

No policy response to a post-bubble bust can ever be free of unintended consequences. The speed and scale of the current economic fiasco as good as ensures that the mistakes will be serious. The key question for investors is whether over the long haul their bias will be deflationary (too little, too late) or inflationary (too much, too fast). Given the different pressures that policymakers are working under, we find it hard to believe that the world as a whole will choose the Japanese path.
UPDATE: Prefect timing.....

If you still have some doubts make sure you read the latest (desperate) Fed effort via Naked Capitalism Fed Ponders Issuing Debt to Finance Its Mushrooming Balance Sheet

Sollte immer noch leichte Zweifel bestehen dem empfehle ich einen Blick auf den neuesten (verzweifelten) Versuch der Fed zu werfen Fed Ponders Issuing Debt to Finance Its Mushrooming Balance Sheet Via Naked Capitalism

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Sunday, December 07, 2008

Another Private Equity Deal That Went Bust Within 24 Months

Commercial Real Estate (CRE) & Private Equity...... When ever you hear this combination during the next few years it will be almost to 100 percent in connection with disastrous deals...... No surprise that Blackstone & Fortress are involved once again....... :-) The enitire CRE complex will be the next very very big headache for the balance sheets from banks...... It´s a safe bet that we will hear similar stories also from the LBO front on a regularly basis ( see Tribune Co. Could Be Flirting With Bankruptcy NYT) ......

Wann immer in den nächsten Monaten die Begriffe Commercial Real Estate & Private Equity im Zusammenhang auftauchen kann man sicher sein das es sich fast zu 100% um das implodieren von Mrdschweren Deals handelt...... Sicher auch kein Zufall das die Namen Blackstone und Fortress in schöner Regelmäßigkeit auftauchen..... Der gesamte Bereich der gewerblichen Immobilien wird noch für extrem große Kopfschmerzen bei den Bänkern und entsprechend große Löcher in den Bilanzen der Banken sorgen...... Wir werden uns an ähnliche Schlagzeilen vor allem auch im Zusammenhang mit den berühmt berüchtigen LBO´s von "Pirate " Equity sowie fremdfinanzierten Übernahmen im allgemeinen ( z.B. CONTI/SCHAEFFER..... ) gewöhnen müssen..... UPDATE: Erster großer Autozulieferer meldet Insolvenz an Manager Magazin

WSJ Extended Stay Could Transfer Chain to Lenders
Extended Stay Hotels Inc. is in early talks that could result in turning the hotel chain over to its lenders, a sign of the deep trouble awaiting the commercial real-estate business.

Extended Stay's difficulties signal a new phase of distress in commercial real estate, because they arise directly from the weakening economy. Until now, problems have mostly involved developers unable to obtain refinancing for otherwise healthy operations.

Lightstone Group LLC, Lakewood, N.J., bought Extended Stay from Blackstone Group LP for $8 billion in April 2007. The deal was highly leveraged, hastening Extended Stay's troubles. The chain has no major debt expirations due soon
But Extended Stay's cash flow is crashing, as business activity across the country contracts. That is putting fewer people in its 684 U.S. and Canadian hotels, used by corporate travelers on long assignments. Extended Stay has 13,000 employees. It is too soon to say if a takeover by lenders would result in layoffs or hotel closings, according to people familiar with the matter.

As conditions deteriorate, Extended Stay has been forced into discussions with its lenders, and people involved in the talks say a transfer of ownership could come within a month or two. Extended Stay has recently hired Lazard Ltd. as financial adviser and New York law firm Weil Gotshal & Manges as bankruptcy counsel......

During the real-estate lending boom, Wall Street originated $600 billion of commercial mortgage-backed securities. The default rate on commercial mortgage debt has remained near historic lows, even while residential-related debt suffered a severe downturn.

But that is now beginning to change, sending new shock waves into much-battered banks, private-equity funds and other financial institutions that participate in the $1 trillion commercial real-estate debt market. Hotel landlords typically are the first to feel the pain in a downturn because hotels have the shortest leases in real estate -- one night at a time.
> I just cannot wait for this deal Hilton's $20 Billion Sale to Blackstone Is Completed to blow up........
> Ich denke es wird nicht mehr lange dauern und der absolute Königsdeal unter den Hotelbuyouts ( Hilton's $20 Billion Sale to Blackstone Is Completed ) dürfte in ähnliches Fahrwasser geraten.....

( OKTOBER 2007 ) The sale, for $26 billion including debt, is a record for the hotel industry. New York-based Blackstone, which already owns the La Quinta lodging chain, joins Apollo Management LP and TPG Inc. in targeting hotel companies for their cash flow and real estate.

An Extended Stay failure reveals how a commercial real-estate downturn could ripple through the financial system.

When Lightstone Group and preferred equity partner Arbor Realty Trust bought Extended Stay from private-equity firm Blackstone Group in 2007, it borrowed more than $7.4 billion. Wachovia Corp., Bank of America Corp., Merrill Lynch & Co. and Fortress Investment Group put in $3.1 billion in so-called mezzanine financing, which isn't as highly secured as other types of debt. People involved in the transaction say an analysis of the company's value shows that much or all of the mezzanine debt could be wiped out in any renegotiated deal.
Bondholders have hired Houlihan Lokey Howard & Zukin for restructuring talks.

Extended Stay is still meeting its debt service, but people familiar with the matter say it could default within the next 60 days if the economic downturn continues as expected. Revenue per available room, or RevPar, a common hotel-industry measure, will be down more than 10% this year at Extended Stay, according to someone familiar with the matter. Much of that decline has come in the last two months.

But it was the Extended Stay deal that was Mr. Lichtenstein's biggest. Extended Stay has operations in 44 states and Canada. It was also among his riskiest deals, as

Lightstone, with help from Arbor Realty, arranged to put down just $600 million of equity, or 8% of the total price. (Blackstone, which made about $3 billion on the sale, kept an equity interest.)
Mr. Lichtenstein saw increasing demand from business travelers who needed hotel accommodations for weeks or even months at a time. He also believed he could unlock value at Extended Stay by taking advantage of the chain's size and paying more attention to management.

A couple of months after the deal closed, Mr. Lichtenstein acknowledged the easy money that helped him complete the deal had disappeared. "We were one of the last deals in," he said.

Troubles also have surfaced at Lightstone's Prime Retail division, which owns roughly 30 malls and shopping centers in the U.S. and Puerto Rico. Lightstone has sought to turn over at least six of its malls to lenders after falling behind on debt payments.


Similar screenplays/attributes can be attached to almost every other deal from "pirate" equity since 2005....

Ähnlichen Drehbüchern dürften fast alle Übernahmen von "Pirate" Equity seit 2005 früher oder soäter folgen......

The Boom Went Bust

In a report by the ratings agency Standard & Poor’s, 86 companies weren’t meeting their debt obligations through mid-November of this year, with 53 of those, or 62 percent, having ties to private-equity firms at one point in their lives.

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Saturday, December 06, 2008

Update Blogroll

I have been lazy in updating my blogroll for some time now. Here are some new entries that i reald regularly.

Ich bin ich letzter Zeit etwas nachlässig in Sachen Atualisierung meiner Blogroll gewesen. Hier ein paar Neuzugänge die ich in schöner regelmäßigkeit selber lese.

Jesse's Café Américain

EconomicPic Data

Paul Kedrosky´s Infectious Greed

Option ARMageddon

Have a nice weekend. Time for a repost of a classic. I think we are somewhere between Stage 3 & 4......

Allen ein schönes Wochenende. Mal wieder höchste Zeit ein mehr als treffendes Video zu posten. Denke wir sind irgendwo zwischen Stufe 3 & 4.....

Tuesday, December 02, 2008

I Want My Buyback Back......" Sears / Eddie Lampert Edition"

This is even worse than Daimler ( see How Daimler Wasted € 7 Billion On Buybacks In Just 15 Months...... ). Unbelievable that only 24 month ago Eddie "the Eagle" Lampert was viewed as the next Warren Buffet and was the paid hedge funds guy...... But with his current holdings ( see ESL Holdings i´ll bet that he will be out of business very soon.......

Dieses Beispiel schafft es sogar Daimler vom Sockel ( siehe How Daimler Wasted € 7 Billion On Buybacks In Just 15 Months...... ) zu stossen. Unfassbar das Eddie "the Eagle" Lampert noch vor 24 Monaten als der nächste Warren Buffet gefeiert worden ist und als einer der bestbezahlten Hedgefondsmanager gegolten hat...... Wenn man einen Blick auf seine aktuellen Beteilgungen wirft ( siehe ESL Holdings ) dürfte klar sein das dieser Typ demnächst ausgezockt hat..... Bin mir ziemlich sicher das die Rubrik "I Want My Buyback Back" demnächst das Potential hat täglich für "Betroffenheit" zu sorgen.....

Since the third quarter of fiscal 2005, when our repurchase plan was first approved, we have repurchased approximately 41.4 million of our common shares at a total cost of $4.9 billion pursuant to the program. As of November 28, 2008, we had approximately 123.6 million common shares outstanding.

> You do the math........ My calculator shows something close to $ 117........ To put things into perspective......Todays marketcap is just 4.5 billion........

> Wer nachrechnen möchte dürfte wie ich auf ne Summe nahe von 117 $ kommen...... Um das ganze besser ins Verhältnis zu setzen sollte man wissen das die Marktkapitalisierung heute knapp 4,5 Mrd $ beträgt......


> More "healthy" news from the latest Sears release

> Mehr "gesunde" Details der letzten Sears Veröffentlichung.......

During the first three quarters of 2008, significant uses of cash included share repurchases of $558 million (as discussed further below), capital expenditures of $395 million, pension contributions of $204 million, net long-term debt repayments of $196 million and payments on commercial paper borrowings of $129 million. These amounts were offset by a $1.9 billion increase in short-term borrowings, primarily through borrowing on our $4 billion credit facility. Had $94 million of our short-term investment in The Reserve Primary Fund been available short-term borrowings would have increased by $1.8 billion.

Our domestic comparable store sales declined 8.7% during the month of November 2008. This decline includes a decline in comparable store sales of 7.8% at Sears Domestic and 10.0% at Kmart. The month of November 2008 includes two days of the holiday shopping season compared to the month of November 2007 which included nine days due to a one-week shift in the Thanksgiving holiday.

The Company also announced today that its Board of Directors has approved the repurchase of up to an additional $500 million of the Company's common shares. This authorization is in addition to the $72 million worth of shares that currently remain available for repurchase under the Company's existing repurchase program

Bruce Johnson ( probably the 3rd ceo/cfo since Lampert took over / der gefühlte 3. oder 4. CEO/CFO seit Lampert das Zepter übernommen hat ) commented, "
After careful consideration and a review of the company's valuation, prospects, cash flow and liquidity, we believe that our shares represent an attractive investment for our shareholders
Given the difficult retail environment and its effect on our free cash flow, we have reduced our rate of repurchases throughout 2008 as we worked to retain flexibility to pursue opportunities and address contingencies. With significant assets and cash flow, we believe Sears Holdings has the flexibility to continue to invest in our business, repay debt, and consider acquisitions opportunities as well."

Have heard similar "wisdoms" before ( see Eddie Lampert Is Averaging Down.....)

Habe ähnliche Weisheiten schon zuvor gehört ( siehe Eddie Lampert Is Averaging Down..... )

March 2007
We allocate capital to initiatives that we believe will provide the greatest returns and create the most value for our shareholders. 2006 was no different, as we deployed capital to repurchase shares,......., as follows: $816 million used for share repurchases (we repurchased over 6 million shares in the year at an average price of about $133 per share);
> Definitley a new quality of the phrase " provide greatest return & most value for shareholders".........

> Definitiv ein neue ganz neue Bedeutung der Begriffe "greatest return & sharholdervalue"....

August 2007
The company repurchased 9.6 million of its shares for a total of $1.5 billion during the second quarter ( $ 156,25 )
November 2007
We repurchased 6.7 million common shares at a total cost of $0.9billion (or $131.72 per share) under our share repurchase program duringthe third quarter of fiscal 2007
Jan 2008
During the ten weeks ended January 11, 2008, we repurchased 4.9 million common shares at a total cost of $513 million (or $105.46 per share) under our share repurchase program.
> Too bad that Sears isn´t important enough for a bailout......... :-)

> Zu dumm das Sears für einen Bailout zu unbedeutend ist......... :-)

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Monday, December 01, 2008

More Wisdoms From Hank Paulson

Almost impossible to track all of his flip flopping and nonsense........But as long as they can still find enough foreign buyers to finance this "brilliant" piece of thinking....... Unfortunately it seems that Bernanke and the Fed has a similar kind of thinking...... Start the helicopters........

Fast unmöglich mit all seine ganzen "Wesiheiten" schrittzuhalten..... Aber solange die USA es immer noch schaffen diese "brilliante" Sichtweise zu finanzieren....... Dummerweise hat Bernanke und die Fed anscheinend eine ähnliche Sichtweise...... Zeit die Helikopter zu starten......

Bertrand Benoit FT - To the German radio presenter, the real news about the measures announced by Washington on Tuesday to jolt banks into lending again was not so much the astronomical costs, but a little-noticed comment in Hank Paulson’s statement.

“Millions of Americans,” croaked the US Treasury secretary, were being denied credit or facing rising credit card rates, “making it more expensive for families to finance everyday purchases”.

The notion that families should finance everyday purchases on credit, the anchor commented, “suggests Washington has still to understand what brought us there in the first place”.


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